ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, OPTIMISTIC SHOT

FIRST RACE

A competitive starter allowance kicks off the Thursday card, a race in which SMALL FORTUNE gets a slight edge. He has proven a consistent check earner since being claimed for $12,500 by owner/trainer Juan Arriagada, winning a race, running second in a couple others, and also managing a fourth; shifts from turf to dirt, over which he was a winner two back. Speedball HARRYHEE faces other speed in this lineup, but is at least drawn outside those other frontrunners; on the board in seven of eight races this year; just lasted for a narrow victory against similar and on the board in over 74 percent of his career starts on dirt. SOCIAL ROY edged COLORMEPOMPOM and CROCODILE CHARLIE in a close finish against starter company July 20, one of 11 wins from this horse in 43 starts on dirt.

SECOND RACE

MADISON BLUES is an angle play, a second-afterclaim runner for a barn that can strike with price horses; expecting her to drift up from her 4-1 morning line, perhaps to 6-1 or so, after getting outrun in her last two starts; capable at this level when she puts it all together. PILLANGO blew away $10,000 claimers such as these on dirt July 15, though facing off-the-turf horses no doubt contributed to the large margin of victory. Regardless, this horse is in top form - as shown by a close fourth against $20,000 claimers in a prior race on turf. PAT M’S IMAGE looks like the class, but not having raced for over two months and showing just one published work makes her a bit of a risky play as one of the favorites.

THIRD RACE

SOUTH OF FRANCE holds an experience edge over many of her rivals in this maiden race, having started a few times, including twice against better maidens in New York. She is not flashy on speed figures, but does have a third and a second in a couple dirt races. LOVELY LUVY and STORMY D are pricey first timers that have trained promisingly for their debuts. LOVELY LUVY sold for $70,000 this year, below the $100,000 sales price of STORMY D - but for 14 times the $5,000 stud fee of her sire, He’s Had Enough. STORMY D has more pedigree power, being by Will Take Charge out of the stakes-winning dam Stormy Dixie.

FOURTH RACE

OPTIMISTIC SHOT was a five-length winner first off the claim for Antonio Sano against N2L types for this $6,250 tag; fits right back for the same price against N3L stock; first or second in five of 11 races. BEAUTIFUL ALLY won three starts ago in May against N2L foes before coming back with a couple seconds at this class level. That is an all-too-common finishing position for her she’s been the runner-up 12 times in her 30-race career, compared to two victories. LUZ ESTRELLA was burned up in a speed duel against classier $12,500 claimers, which contributed to her fading to eighth, beaten 24 1/2 lengths; better suited to today’s company and what seems a race with less speed; nicely drawn outside her principal pace rival, MISS CASUARINA.

FIFTH RACE

HEIRESSALL debuted with a runner-up finish in April behind Shanghai Starlet, who is now a Florida-bred stakes winner; seemed to miss some training in July but blazed five furlongs in 58 1/5 seconds Aug. 1 in the lead up to this returnt; by a fine Florida sire in Wildcat Heir, whose progeny are regularly overachieving sprinters. STARGIRL, bought for $300,000 at the Saratoga select sale at Saratoga a couple years back, has taken a while to get to the races but judging from her works, she seems to have talent; nice bloodlines - being by Medaglia d’Oro and out of an A.P. Indy mare

that has already dropped a couple stakes winners.

UMETUKA, twice third in as many starts, owns speed figures roughly on far with the one HEIRESSALL just posted; faces an even longer layoff to overcome than the top choice, not having started since February.

SIXTH RACE

Taking a shot with 8-1 outsider NATRONA GIRL, who was disadvantaged in her two starts this year. She returned from a lengthy layoff when fourth June 29, and then was fourth again when racing in an off-the-turf race July 29; perhaps ready for a move forward in her third start of her current form cycle. SAMURAI’SFIRSTLADY has proven a popular filly at the claims box, getting plucked out of claimers in three of her last four starts. She disappointed in a June 3 race at this class level June 3, but perhaps needed the race after being away since March; capable of running Beyers in the low to mid 70s when on her game. ORTIGA fits on form but has a history of settling for pieces and was unlucky at the draw by landing post 12.

SEVENTH RACE

TIUNA weakened a bit to be third against similar $6,250 stock Aug. 2, but is now drawn as the outside speed for a winning trainer/jockey combination; has a nice Gulfstream main-track record (7-2-1-1). TELESA ran dismally last out in finishing eighth at this level, but rates as the second selection based on her body of her work over her career. She has won 14 times from 39 starts, often against better than these; goes from one high-percentage barn into another off the claim. BELLIMBUSTO is a tricky mare to evaluate, having run poorly in one start this year, though after a break of over 17 months. She logically figures to be stronger for this race, though it is anyone’s guess if she can return to what she showed before the layoff. Usually a layoff of a year or more is due to a significant injury. As with any athlete, that can slow a horse down.

EIGHTH RACE

NIKKI’S CAUSE is 10-4-3-0 on the grass at Gulfstream and has a couple seconds and a first in three races at this class $30,000 class level; is spotted to win off the claim, with her connections capitalizing that she is eligible for this race as a 3-year-old, not as an N3L runner. PROSPECTIVELY edged the top choice by a head in a meeting two back on June 21 before returning with a fifth in what seemed a soft stakes race; well drawn, as is the top choice. SOPHIE GERMAIN is a gigantic overlay if she starts anywhere close to her 20-1 morning line - though that seems improbable. She flashed promise earlier in her career and is making just her second start for a tag; sure to appreciate a class drop from the allowance ranks.

NINTH RACE

SILVER THREADS woke up with a competitive second against $12,500 conditioned claimers such as these after struggling in her first three races of the year; back class and perhaps can sit a nice stalking trip behind the speed. SOL DAT SUGAR has won two of her last three, though one victory came against maidens and another in an off-the-grass contest that benefited her. TRAPPE ME LATER could not keep pace with $25,000 stock when sixth July 27, and should appreciate being cut in half to $12,500; on the board in all five of her races when racing for a $16,000 tag or less.

TENTH RACE

Inexperienced 2-year-olds going a route on turf make for a tricky nightcap...PASO A LA REINA is at least established under these conditions, having rallied to be second vs. nd similar, though in a slow race. JEANIEONTHEBEACH, a first timer, sold for $22,000 at auction earlier this year and is by a turf stallion in Treasure Beach; stakes-placed dam is a half to Grade 1 winner Ron The Greek. REAL WICKED is bred for turf, being by Real Solution, and may improve upon a debut in which she ran fifth in a grass race; adds blinkers for her second start.