ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, UNRULY HEIR

FIRST RACE

CHAR’S FAIR LADY was overmatched against a deep group of Maiden Special Weight runners in her turf debut but she should fare better here on the drop for trainer Kelly Breen; has the speed to get position immediately. LADY CAVALIER is another dropping in class; she was a decent third at Gulfstream two back and she’s a threat if she can run back to that effort today. HEAVENLY LUCKY is entered for Main Track Only and she’ll be a threat if she gets to run, as her best dirt figures put her squarely in the middle of this.

SECOND RACE

TEN SILVER DOLLARS stretches out and seems to land in a good spot in terms of pace, as she looms the controlling speed from her inside post; very dangerous if she is in fact able to shake loose and control the tempo. SLAM CHOWDER is another who figures to be involved from the start, and that would be a big edge for her; in fact, she benefited from a forward trip in a paceless race in her latest, when 2nd. Closer WINK FOR ME has been against the race flow in each of her last three starts (note “S” symbols in DRF pp’s, indicating an advantage for speeds) but she could improve here if the top pair were to hook up in a race-long duel.

THIRD RACE

SEVEN GEMS weakened after setting the pace from the start in his latest but he had to work hard to get clear there, and the yielding course probably wasn’t to his advantage; main threat to likely heavy favorite REED KAN. The latter is going to be very tough off his last effort, in the My Frenchman Stakes; the most likely winner but value will be tough to come by. MALIBU ACTION has speed and figures to be a threat if he’s able to scratch in as a Main Track Only entrant; would benefit greatly if the top pair were to scratch in the event it comes off, as he could then be the main speed.

FOURTH RACE

WATCH YOUR WORDS drops in class but, more importantly, he could be the main speed in a race lacking same; given a clean getaway from the fence he figures to shake loose and he has a solid chance to wire these if he’s unpressured on the lead from the start. COWTOWN DUKE pressed the pace in his last two, both races light on pace, and given today’s inside draw and the expected race flow he should be close-up from the start; if the pace is controlled that gives him the edge on the closers. SKIPPER DANCER is widest but he has some early zip of his own, and he should be able to work out a forward trip under jockey Paco Lopez.

FIFTH RACE

EASTPORT was well off the board in his turf debut last time but he was in against better, reflected by the fact that the Beyer came back strong; also figures to appreciate the cut back in distance. TIZCREETLY was a sharp winner against maiden claimers, posting another improved Beyer; dangerous in his first start against winners with another step forward. SMART RAGS has speed and the hedge but he can also rate, and that should mean he has options as one of the two main speeds in the field (ROUGH NIGHT); could try to beat that one or sit off that runner, depending on how the race shapes up early on.

SIXTH RACE

LET’S PARLAY makes her first start off the claim and lands in a seemingly good spot as the potential controlling speed, with only Billy’s Jump Start seemingly capable of prompting him early; game score in her latest against a step lesser. HUACHUCA is in for a tag for the first time since she was claimed back in May, and she does have steady Beyers; would be the main beneficiary if the top pick and BILLY’S JUMP START were to get involved in a duel from the start. The latter cuts back from a route, and now switches from turf to dirt, a 36% angle for top trainer Jorge Navarro; will be prominent from the bell.

SEVENTH RACE

UNRULY HEIR is winless on the turf, including eight tries as a sprinter, but those races were largely against fields full of established, professional turf sprinters; this field isn’t as strong as most of those

he’s faced and he figures to appreciate the class relief. PAPADOPALOUS was only beaten a little over three lengths the last time he sprinted on the turf; proven closer could be well set up here, with a quick, contested pace seemingly on tap. WHAT

THE CHUB is one of the expected speeds, and he is the one to catch and beat on paper; scored at this distance when loose on the lead three back.

EIGHTH RACE

THE CAKE IS A LIE may be ideally spotted behind a lively pace, with FIND THE MONEY, AXE CAPITAL and possibly OCALA CHROME all involved from the start; he was against the race flow in his last two starts on the main track, both light on speed, but he should benefit from a much better set up in this finale. FIND THE MONEY has the best figures in the field and is clearly the one to beat, coming off an easy win against richer; may get caught up in a pressured pace but he may be too good at a short price anyway. HY RAPID LADY could pick up some pieces late if he does in fact sit the trip behind a duel.