ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, CLUBMAN

FIRST RACE

HOT MIC’s most recent start came during the crazy-fast part of the LRL turf season this summer, and when you have radical conditions it means a greater portion of the population won’t be suited to them. Hot Mic might’ve been part of that group and in any case was beaten about five lengths by better horses than these. In his other turf sprint he was a solid closing second of seven at a higher class level. Morning-line odds would be very fair. WHENTHEDOVESCRY has a decent little run on both turf and dirt and is taken here as a win hope on either surface. CIRCLE OF LIGHT is 7-2 on the line despite the fact he has taken recent losses at lower class levels and is marooned on the far outside without enough speed to cross and clear by the turn.

SECOND RACE

FURY OF THE NORSEMEN won for this $20K tag four back, was second for $25K two back, and had trouble when a close fifth in another $25K turf sprint last out. Appears to be a solid fit provided accomplished rider can work out a trip from rail draw - though solid is not a word I’d necessarily use to describe opinions on turf races given the state of the course last racing week. MINERS QUEST popped up with a turf win in April before quickly losing his form, but is taken here as a dirt hope since his main-track baseline performance looks superior. PUTURSEATBELTON is just a little light in terms of firmly established class but he’s also hit a new peak this year and might be capable of tackling these now.

THIRD RACE

BRIGID’S CROSS has worked back twice since what might have been a $25K MCL turf-sprint debut meant as a prep for this $10K dirt route. The barn has had some success at the meet. STRING BEAN has made some recent improvement and figures to leave himself less to do stretching out to this two-turn trip, though the question then becomes whether he stays. CARVED got started in January, looked like a horse that could win a maiden at this level, but went off track in spring. Freshening defi- nitely could help.

FOURTH RACE

CALCULATED THINKIN would seem like a poor short price to support but the presence of SMART TWO A T, who could be an even shorter, poorer price to support, makes him more palatable. On the face of things the cut back from 7f last time to 5.5f here might be all he needs. Worked back, too. SMART TWO A T should be on or near the lead and CT will need to pass him - but it’s possible we’ve already seen the present best of this horse in two tightly spaced July races following a yearplus layoff. Considering his first couple starts the modest third in a short DEL field last out represented massive progress for L’OVERTURE. Sometimes in these cases they get a second bump right away, too.

FIFTH RACE

ARMOIRE has raced only once this year, which is something of a concern since it’s mid-August, but that one race was a career-best in a Va-bred stakes and was plenty good enough for this N3X allowance. Anticipating something similar so will eat the short price. Main-track-only TRACE OF GRACE looks marginally good enough (hardly a slam dunk) to win with a surface switch. ARRAIGN almost always competitive on this circuit and while limited upside and not a great win record, will take her over QUICK WITTED, who appeared to move up on a wet course last time.

SIXTH RACE

HIS ROYAL MAJESTY, entered main-track-only, has shown enough on dirt to make him appear the most likely winner in the event of a rain-off, yet

hard to be too confident given his overall record and lack of pace. MR. BRIDGER is entered for the $25K tag rather than under starter conditions, which is of some concern, but he’s held consistent form over his last several races that would place him in the upper tier with any racing luck.

GREAT BEND through maturity or the barn change to original outfit appears to have hit a new level in last three starts that might be sustainable, even improvable.

SEVENTH RACE

The pace situation doesn’t look ideal for frontrunning HAMMERIN AAMER but he was dominant enough in two previous LRL starts that we might not want to get too bogged down worrying about him taking some pressure. DEGROM improved, improved, improved - then went over the top when last seen in May. Due a freshening he got and can get back on track right away. Thrice-started CARTERET tries two turns for the first time but appears to be an improving type with at least middledistance blood in pedigree.

EIGHTH RACE

AQUAMARINA’s N American debut was troubled and pretty good. Bled last time but appears to have gotten on a very nice work pattern. BELLERUE was on the lead in a turf maiden at DEL coded favorable for front-runners and is sure to be overbet off that performance stepping up to face other winners. A little interested in her for dirt given pedigree. SMART TOGETHER, another Euro import, made US debut going 10f and one wonders if she’ll be quite quick enough for this.

NINTH RACE

CLUBMAN had every right to “need” his most recent start coming back from a seven-month layoff. He’s 3-1-2-0 at this 6f trip with (potentially) the right style for the race flow and a recent bullet work. After two straight peak performances as a 6yo (last on a wet track) it’s probably imprudent to just pencil in SIR ORINOCO for another one like that. HILL SHADOW posted poorly but has never been worse than third at 6f and has bounce-back potential at a price following two subpar showings.

TENTH RACE

LEMON AVOCADO raced on dirt last time as well as two back when claimed by C Gonzalez barn but her first two starts on turf were better. Gets a lot of weigh from a bunch of these with 7-lb bug riding. STRATOSPHERA cuts back in distance and drop to lowest level, and her career debut was good enough to contend here. DORCAS CAREY either is aggressively spotted or for sale, but either way I couldn’t trust the horse at a short price.