ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SOUTER

FIRST RACE

A mishmash field of 2yo Cal-bred maidens go a mile on turf. If stakes-placed LEADVILLE can be forgiven for his misfire two weeks ago in a dirt sprint, perhaps he can win. His runner-up finish in a sprint stakes at Pleasanton in July was solid. That effort would be good enough for this. It is uncertain what happened to him in his local debut two weeks ago, ninth as the 7-5 favorite, but he wheels right back and figures as the one to beat off his previous start. TAKEO SQUARED has been racing evenly in sprints, as if two turns will be fine. Firsttime starter UNUSUAL RIDER is an Unusual Heat colt produced by stakes winner Lady Railrider. That makes him a sibling to three multiple winners including stakes winner Pulpit Rider. Tough to win first out around two turns, but ‘RIDER would not be the first Mike Puype trainee to accomplish the feat. KID KOIL is quick enough to make the lead, and we’ll see how far he can carry his speed.

SECOND RACE

This starter allowance dirt mile is a good spot to take a shot at a price. IMPRESSION had a dreadful trip last time vs. similar, eighth by 24 lengths. His alibi is his trip. Used hard early after breaking from the outside post, he was parked five-wide the first turn, three-wide into the backstretch, then dropped over the to the rail on a day when the outside lanes perhaps were best. IMPRESSION chucked it at the five-sixteenths. It was a debacle. But he posted two solid works since, his maiden win two back would be plenty good enough, and he moves from post 10 to post 5. Tab for an upset. The top choice is trained by Bill Morey, who also trains second preference TIDAL EFFECT. The latter improved each race since Morey claimed him three back, including a solid maiden-40 win last out that makes him a contender with these. AYACARA got bogged in traffic into the lane last time, had to wait for room, then failed to quicken once he finally got clear. “Inconclusive” might be a generous assessment, but he did have trouble. Claimed off the effort, back to dirt, rider change, he will roll late. FAWREE adds blinkers after finishing fourth in what now looks like a prep race.

THIRD RACE

MR CLASSICAL makes his local debut while dropping in class from MSW in Kentucky to maiden-40 in California. The top figures he earned against good company in the Midwest are good enough for this. STREET TO INDY made what looked like the winning move into the lane last time, he opened up by a length and a half lead in midstretch, then got swallowed by race-2 contender Tidal Effect. It was another solid effort by ‘INDY, who is now a 16-start maiden. One of these days. MOMMA’S BABY BOY exits the same race, he finished fourth. He needs the speed to back up to have a chance. BANK WALKER was claimed for $40k from a thirdplace comeback, gelded, and now stretches back to two turns. Lots of contenders in this field.

FOURTH RACE

SOUTER will be tough to beat if he reproduces his runner-up finish last out at this starter allowance level, over this turf course. The improving gelding made the lead in the lane, got collared, but finished more than two clear of third. Each start this year has been better than the start before. GAIN GROUND was claimed for $25k from a modest fourth; he ran races in spring at Arlington that would be fast enough to win this. Improvement possible first start for Phil D’Amato. MONGOLIAN GREYWOLF finished in front of ‘GROUND last time, while running a better race. ‘GREYWOLF dueled though a tough pace and hung on for second. The thing is, he does not necessarily require the lead. Big look here if he is able to ration his speed. WORTHY TURK won this condition last out as a maiden, so he can run back at the same level. TASTE’S LEGEND, a longshot, actually figures in the picture based on his figures.

FIFTH RACE

TAPALITA has been freshened two months after she equaled the best effort of her career finishing second in a similar maiden-20 sprint. She has speed for a forwardly placed trip, she runs well fresh. CRACKLING BREAD makes her California debut for an outfit that does well with recent acquisitions. She has been running well on the Midwest circuit (in the money half her starts), and