Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Paved at preferred distance in wide-open Del Mar Oaks
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With Del Mar staging the $1 million Pacific Classic on Saturday, the national racing spotlight is largely centered on the West Coast this weekend. And this handicapper’s gaze is similarly focused in that direction, though not so much at the track’s premier race, where Accelerate is a worthy favorite, but rather in its supporting stakes, the Del Mar Oaks and Del Mar Handicap.
With the Del Mar Oaks being a Grade 1 and the better topto-bottom race of the pair, let’s dive into an analysis of it first. It is a grass race in which four fillies – Ollie’s Candy, Fatale Bere, Paved, and Colonia – seem a cut above the rest, though another, Ms Bad Behavior could be in the mix if she can stay the 1 1/8-mile trip. I am doubtful of that, however, after she came up a touch empty late when third in last month’s one-mile San Clemente at Del Mar.
Ultimately, I settled on Paved, a 6-1 shot on the morning line, respecting her form throughout the year and proficiency at 1 1/8 miles. All three of her victories have come at this distance, including stakes wins in the El Camino Real Derby against the boys on synthetic and the Grade 2 Honeymoon on turf at Santa Anita.
Still, she has little margin for error in the Del Mar Oaks. Others are comparable based on speed figures and accomplishments, and Fatale Bere has finished in front of her in two of three matchups this year. That included last out on July 7, when both fillies were shipped across the country to New York for the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. Fatale Bere ran sixth, beaten 3 1/2 lengths, and Paved was eighth, 3 3/4 lengths behind the victorious Athena.
Fatale Bere ran the better race of the two that afternoon. She was closer at the finish and in contention throughout. After settling in sixth, she offered a mild bid to pull within two lengths of the lead in midstretch before being outkicked.
Paved, on the other hand, seemed disinterested early, falling back to last and then passing only a couple of tired horses down the lane.
The Del Mar Oaks represents a home game for both – they have been working for weeks at Del Mar since returning from Belmont. And I’m hopeful that change in surroundings will assist Paved, who was perhaps dulled by the ship across the country last month.
As for the Del Mar Handicap, it is a puzzler. Eleven of the 12 entrants are stretching out in distance, and most have never raced the 1 3/8 miles on turf. That includes Multiplier, one of the logical favorites, who is in fine form but whose ideal distance would appear to be 1 1/8 miles.
Itsinthepost likely will be favored based on his accomplishments in marathons, but after a ninth-place finish in the Eddie Read, when this usual hard trier uncharacteristically gave up on the second turn, there is risk to backing him.
I will try 8-1 outsider Flamboyant as an alternative. To be sure, he has his drawbacks – having managed just a fifthplace finish in his latest in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham and with only a single win in 11 starts in 2017-18. But at least he can stay the distance, as he showed with a third in this race last year and later with some graded placings at 1 1/2 miles.
Another plus is his draw in post 2, from where he should be able to follow the speedier Kenjisstorm to his inside and save ground early.
Skeptic in Monmouth Oaks
Another well-drawn price play looms in Saturday’s Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks with Skeptic. A 6-1 chance breaking from the rail, she appears set up to receive a favorable stalking trip behind the speed in a dirt race going 1 1/16 miles.
Sassy Sienna and Gio Game are the most established fillies in the field, being the richest entrants and Grade 1 tested. However, they come off rearhalf finishes that could hint at vulnerability.
After running fourth in the Indiana Oaks last out, Skeptic needs to step up her game to win and could be ready to do so. The least experienced member of the lineup with six starts, she was encouragingly placed in this stakes race by trainer Rusty Arnold when a conservative move would have been to look for a second-level allowance.
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. also is giving his endorsement by giving up a full day of riding at his regular base at Ellis Park to be aboard her, even though the Monmouth Oaks is worth merely $100,000.