ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SIR BALLANTINE

FIRST RACE

Won’t advocate too hard for AZZEDINE as he drops in class again after failing to materialize as a late threat to front-running stablemate Dominant Strategy up here on opening day for nearly twice this price, but this is the kind of race where he rates to be tough for a trainer who can afford to give him up and he is perfectly drawn on the inside. LETTERMAN was held up behind horses for a long way before making a run to contention around the turn in his belated debut at Belmont back in June, but he tired readily in the stretch and this is a quick drop for a horse with his pedigree after at least making a run first time out; tough post. CAUSEUR had a little trouble when dropped to this level when last seen back in May, not that he was beating recent Grade 1 winner Carrick in that spot, anyway; tries again following a break while making his first start for a trainer enjoying a nice meet up here.

SECOND RACE

VINEYARD SOUND has some pedigree as a sibling to three turn winners from this dam, including his full brother Bittel Road, who was a stakes winner on turf up here as a 2yo before going on to take a Grade 3 at Keeneland; Dilger underrated with first time starters and he is particularly adept at getting them ready to go long on debut. SOUTHERN BRIDGE was rated back to last in his debut on the opening Saturday of the meet, and he made a wide run around the turn before racing on late behind a front-running winner on a slow pace; not sure that was the strongest MSW overall, but having that experience gives him an edge for barn that has been having a good meet up here from the start. MEDINA RIDGE has a big pedigree for grass as a War Front out of the multiple Grade 3 turf winner Hit it Rich, and he is a full brother to two turf winners, including Profiteer who won up here last summer; Shug won’t ask too much of his babies but he can get one to win right away if they are up for it. MALTHAEL is by a sire expected to be a strong turf influence (though he is not off to a fast start from a small sample) but has more of a dirt pedigree on the dam side as a brother to the top class dirt sprinter A. P. Indian from a dam who had plenty of success on the main track; Clement excellent with 2yos debuting on turf up here and he thinks this is the right surface.

THIRD RACE

Admit to having done some chasing of SIR BALLANTINE lately, but he ran much better than it looks two back when chasing a solid pace in a race that was won last-to-first in the slop, and he was also way up against it last time over a track that was very kind to speed; don’t mind this turn back at all for a horse who appeared to really improve in his first two starts for this trainer, both of those races around one turn. DADDY D T dropping back down after doing his best while in a bit over his head in his last two starts; has improved since finally getting back to dirt in NY but his three wins on the main track have all come vs. weaker fields than this one. NIGEL’S DESTINY cutting back to distance of top figure score two back, which also happens to be his lone start sprinting for sharp connections off the claim; good effort last time when setting a fast pace in front of the in-form Exulting.

FOURTH RACE

AHEAD OF PLAN doesn’t have much pedigree to lean on, which makes the $475k purchase price back in April all the more noteworthy; worked a quick 10-flat at that sale prior to being taken by top connections and he appears to be training forwardly since for a trainer who has sent out a couple of good-looking 2yos to win on debut already at the meet. PRINCIPLED the first foal from Teen Pauline, who ultimately became a Grade 2 winner for this trainer as an older horse, but was an impressive debut winner sprinting over this

track as a 2yo with a 92 Beyer; Pletcher’s 2yos have disappointed at the meet so far, but this one does appear to be training well. CROMWELL

AVENUE was outrun early behind the talented Nitrous in his debut before getting out to the clear in the stretch and forging on to the finish without threat; one of five in this field looking to build on prior racing experience.

FIFTH RACE

GYPSY JANIE has posted each of her last two wins over wet tracks, but she has also won twice on fast dirt and she fits this race well with her ability to run from off the pace; entered right back at the level of the claim for dangerous connections after getting wired over a speed-favoring track at Belmont last time. SHAPE SHIFTER crushed Keeneland maiden claimers in her dirt debut then stepped up in class off the claim and again scored easily over a muddy track; drops back down and picks up leading rider after failing to get through her 2x condition out of town. OUR GIRL ABBY crushed weaker with a new top figure when dropped in class at Gulfstream back in March and she was unlucky not to win right back off the claim after being laid up off the Gargan claim last time; good fit at this level with a versatile running style.

SIXTH RACE

FED FEVER debuted in a strong maiden behind Nitrous early in the meet and took some money in that race before enduring a difficult wide trip while on the chase; needs to show more speed in this spot but is eligible to do so with that first one out of the way. WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO debuted on dirt despite owning a strong pedigree for grass and put in a nice late run for 2nd after getting out-paced early; doesn’t get any added distance to work with here but he is going to be tough if building on that solid first run. QUICK ENTRY debuting for a trainer who does not have a strong record with first time starters but he is nicely drawn on the outside with some nice works showing, and he is a half-brother to the talented Viva Majorca, who also raced for these connections.

SEVENTH RACE

LOVELY LA LA ran well in her main track debut while chasing a fast pace on Wood Day but she is bred to be better on turf and improved immediately when switched over to break her maiden with the top last out figure in this field; looks tough right back for leading trainer. WAY SMART was disappointing in her first two starts this year after getting a pair of good trips as the favorite, but she did run better last time while no real match for the 1-2 finishers in that spot, both of whom had more difficult trips than she did; tries again. CARTWHEEL switched to turf last time and couldn’t get involved after enduring a difficult trip from a far outside post; drew poorly on the outside again but deserves another chance on this surface.

EIGHTH RACE

CAPLA TEMPTRESS looked good as a 2yo in Europe before shipping to North America to win the Natalma impressively from off a modest pace; hasn’t won since but she ran well while closing too late in major French Group 1 off the layoff and she was shut off after cutting the corner in the Belmont Oaks over a distance that doesn’t have to be her best. SIGNIFICANT FORM was hard held tracking the pace for a long way in the Belmont Oaks before getting clear and failing to sustain her run in the final furlong; talented filly has something to find on her stablemate RUSHING FALL but she is improved this year and may really appreciate getting this shorter distance to work with. RUSHING FALL the clear leader of this division and is unlucky not to be undefeated on the way into this race after taking a tough beat when last seen on Kentucky Oaks Day; not sure where she’s been for the last 106 days, but she is a handful here if returning in form.

NINTH RACE

MIDNIGHT BISOU could not make a race of the CCA Oaks last time with Monomoy Girl loose on the lead but she is not as far away from that talented rival as many seem to think based on that race; has to get the added furlong here, but so so the others and she is the clear horse to beat heading into an Alabama that is being skipped by the division leader. ESKIMO KISSES was also badly compromised by the way the CCA Oaks was run and she showed she belongs with these horses when finishing a good 4th in the Kentucky Oaks after an inside trip; quality closer needs some pace, which she projects to get in this race. TALK VEUVE TO ME has earned a series of figures as a 3yo that place her near to the top of this division and she was impressive in her two-turn debut last time while running out overmatched rivals; stretches out while likely to face a taller order up near the pace.

TENTH RACE

INDEBTED was left in to get a run over dirt on 7/28 in his return to NY, which is not a race to hold against him; can do better back on his preferred surface after going evenly in his return to turf at Delaware three back, then challenging the pace and weakening late going longer on July 5th; won just one of his ten starts last year but he was running races right along that would give him a look in this field. Not sure why SYCAMORE LANE was sprinting in California off the layoff/claim, and he has faced some very tough fields since returning east in his last two starts; big drop off the trainer change. ITALIAN CHARM dropping back in for $25k for this, a level at which he has made three prior starts in the past, missing by a head up here last summer off the layoff and then winning the next two at Fair Grounds; good fit here but this is a strong race for the level.