ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, RIGHT ON

FIRST RACE

Solid 12-race Saturday card starts at 12:45 ET and with enough speed in this one-mile starter to set the table once again for QUENANE, who has romped in 2 of his last 4 under these same conditions, including the Derby Day stunner in which he paid $93; looking for J.J. to save all the ground before the faint-hearted start coming back to him; Levy sure seems to win her share year-to-year. DIZZY GILLESPIE will be looking to fire fresh off a 9-week layoff; note the huge (87) BSF from his 3-back score off the Crichton claim; So Caro-bred has the ability. CHEPSTOW has that in-money mark of 25-for-43 going for him, plus the winning connections.

SECOND RACE

Looks like Saffie rates a big chance to end the early double with an uncoupled twosome topped by TROUBLE IN PHOENIX, who returns to his preferred surface amid a lineup of route-speed aplenty; careful rating required from Camacho, who’s been a welcome addition to the circuit since Tampa closed up. FLOWMOTION, welldrawn toward the hedge, took some Casse regrouping during an 8-week layup and returns, perhaps, with a slight class edge; major danger if he fires fresh. J R ‘S HOLIDAY, the ‘other Saffie,’ adds blinkers and could loom late, assuming a too-fast pace forced by the likes of POWERLINE takes its toll.

THIRD RACE

First of 5 maiden races on this Saturday card seems most likely to be taken down by a first-timer from a reputable barn, which certainly makes DREAM ON JILLY a prime candidate off the Ralphie prep; fact that she (and some of these others) are in straight-off for a tag is reason to proceed with caution, but this sure came up a reasonable spot to get her going. Likewise with WITH ME WITHOUT ME, an O’Connell BEGINner who’s learned her lessons over at Calder; two-back a.m. bullet to put her on her toes. BEGIN, aptly named, comes unveiled for the meet’s leading trainer, De la Cerda.

FOURTH RACE

Stretchout to this one-turn mile might be what sets R BABY DRIVER free, not to mention the fact he’ll make his second start since being gelded (surely the procedure wasn’t promptly reported prior to the Aug. 10 return, huh); liable to clear off from the other outer-drawn steeds before having every opportunity. Closer to the rail, DIXIE MAMBO gets yet another chance on this bottom rung; yep, he’s 0-for-14, but those last two suggest he might finally be ready to break through, or at least take home another check. AGHOST TO THE POST, the Happy homebred, can give dogged pursuit with a clean trip from the openair outside box.

FIFTH RACE

Probably won’t be many more clear-cut favorites on this card than FALSE ACCUSATION, who jams down to this $10k N2L level in an aggressive move from Servis as a twice-beaten favorite for higher tags; very tough making a case against. ESCRIBIENTE, also a recent fan fave, requires just a little more follow-thru in order to pull a mild upset; barn (Delgado) enjoying a fine year with its 21-percent strike rate. MOSCA can save all the ground before moving along for a share.

SIXTH RACE

Kantharos has become one of the most productive sires of Fla-breds in recent years, and here’s another of his newbies, R BOY BODE, making his debut for Richie et. al. in what appears to be a relatively soft spot for a huge ($65k!) purse; outer box can set this homebred colt free. On the other end of the gate, SHREW GRIT debuts as the lone filly in the field

following a couple of local works, which followed farm prep; the Yates barn is having a terrific year with the babies. UNEQUAL, by the promising young sire Uncaptured, surely will take serious play for Eddie P.

SEVENTH RACE

Inordinately deep lineup of starter turf-milers could get a believable winner from a half-dozen or so, starting on the far outside with PORTER STREET, who returns from a 9-week layoff seeking a 3-race win streak; gray guy shows a steady work slate for Saffie in the interim. FLASHY CHELSEY has returned to competitive form following a brief break and class relief; back-to-back solid efforts warrant this nominal raise; rail draw ought to help. TIL THE END, COULD BE, STREET CODE, and the Fla-bred GRAY DUDE all fit this tight spot.

EIGHTH RACE

Zerpa hitting at an eye-catching 44 percent with his first-off-claim runners, and now he’ll be looking to further improve when jamming RIGHT ON right back for the same $6,250 for which he claimed the filly from Pletcher; not always the best source for new claims, but you’ve got to admit this is a pretty light spot. For instance, BUN BUN is 1-for-24, yet can claim a stake here; a whopping 13 2nds/3rds makes this gray gal an obvious ‘under’ play in the verticals. DERBY DAY DARLING showed speed despite the turn-back last out; be prominent here, too.

NINTH RACE

VENDITA once again showed herself a cut below the minor-stakes types when fifth in the Treasure Chest 5 Saturdays ago, but she ought to fit snugly for this hybrid allowance condition for Biancone, who wasted no time in early June in claiming her back; note the two-back score at basically this same level; outer post can allow the 7-pound bug to coax her into a comfortable early rhythm. AQUEMINI does her best work late; will need a solid pace to factor in. SNIRVANA, the ‘other Biancone,’ is the obvious unknown when making her stateside debut; comes equipped with Palm Meadows bullets and first-time Lasix.

TENTH RACE

Worth noting the window play LOUDON’S SONG attracted in her May debut for Brei and Nicks, after which a timeout was called and requisite regrouping ensued; banking on a far more representative effort today given the furthering of the education. SO NIFTY debuts for top connections (Fawkes) when showing a nice work slate; surely draws the fans’ attention at first asking. SOLDAT WAR adds blinkers and no doubt will be going great guns when sent from the outer box.

ELEVENTH RACE

Forgive SPANISH HARLEM for the Princess Rooney drubbing, and suddenly her form looks more than sufficient to seriously contend in this mile restricted to non-stakes winners as she comes favorably drawn in the outside post for De la Cerda; reverting to the May 10 effort that equated to an 86 Beyer would do. WEEKEND MISCHIEF is really on a roll now; 3yo faces her elders in seeking a 3rd straight for Arindel and Gold. MY COUSIN MARTHA, first or second in 7 of 11, has established herself as a reliable closer.

TWELFTH RACE

Six Saturdays ago, PEGGITY ran respectably as the favorite in this same sort of low-level mdn.-claimer for 2-turn turfers; couldn’t blame Pompay for giving her a shot when her next race was rained off the grass, and at least fitness was maintained in the process; looks good enough to send ‘em home a winner this time. Right alongside, RIGEL’S HALO comes the chief threat while maintaining OK form; distance, surface, and company suit. RATE OF RETURN, THREE QUESTIONS, and the cleverly named SURELY TEMPLE all figure close enough.