ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SENSIBLE MYTH

FIRST RACE

PROMISE ILLGETYOU is a bit of a stretch but he was overmatched in his latest after that last-to-first score at Penn in his prior; he showed deceptive late interest in two local starts before that one and he should be another big price in this opener. TREE SHAKER has moved way up since switching to turf; he was off the board in a sprint last time but he’s back routing here and he figures to be prominent from the start. CHARLIE MOPS has speed and the hedge, and some of the better back figures in the field; dangerous in this spot in his first start off the claim.

SECOND RACE

CHOVANES took full advantage of otherwise paceless fields in his last two and he lands in a similar spot this afternoon, as he looks like the absolute clear speed; light price ensured but he’s tough to go past under the circumstances. SALEM LOOP is one of the unluckier horses to race at the meet, continually running in spots where his late-running style puts him at a disadvantage; this looks like another race where he’d need to overcome the race flow to win but he is the main stretch threat. SPEEDY A. P. has the rail and will need to at least stay close in the opening stages if he’s to have a chance at beating the top pick; up in class in his first start off the claim after facing non-winners of three for some time.

THIRD RACE

BALABAN is gong to be a handful here at a short price, but trainer Jason Servis is winning at such a strong rate it’s tough to take a shot against his runners, especially when they have such a clear edge; may have to grin and bear a short price. THE FORTY FACTOR has some speed and figures to be prominent from the start; he was off the board in his last sprint try but a race-long duel cost him his best chance. JAMES CIRO has never sprinted on the grass but the barn has solid stats with horses turning back from routes to sprints.

FOURTH RACE

WHITE BLUFF has the speed to lead as well as the ability to take back off the pace and make one run, and that versatility should enable him to work out a trip regardless of how this sprint shapes up; steady Beyers add to the appeal. DRAXHALL WOODS has been in very good form of late, and he has the positional speed to get himself in position behind the expected speeds; he was behind MIDNIGHT GAMES last time but he hardly ran a poor race in defeat. The latter benefited from a perfect trip in that score but he still has to be respected off that running line.

FIFTH RACE

VERSED ran deceptively well in his sprint tries two and three back, and he was sent two turns last time, something he didn’t seem to appreciate; the figure he earned in that win at Laurel back in April gives him strong credibility here and he can surprise these if able to run back to that effort today. SPIRIT SPECIAL caught the eye with a strong last run when last seen; he was shelved after that June 23rd try but he’s dangerous here if ready off the short rest, a decent angle for the barn. THE POOCH is winless on the turf but he does have high speed, and he hasn’t tried this abbreviated distance on the green; could be the one to catch.

SIXTH RACE

MANDEL manhandled an overmatched field when he was last on the dirt, and though the inflated figure is due to the fact that he was the only speed in the race over a sloppy track he still merits respect off that Beyer, as he does loom the main speed again; has to be caught. PARTINGTHEREDSEA stretches out and should be a factor from the start; may get first run at the top pick, and he

could last for part of the exacta if the pace is in fact controlled. POSTINO’S VOW is another stretching out from sprints, and his inside post should help him as he tries to get early position; overall win percentage is weak but he’s an exacta threat.

SEVENTH RACE

MY OWN LANE had some traffic trouble en route to a 2nd-place finish at Suffolk in his latest, showing improved speed; he’s a closer who will be looking to make the last run and he should get at least some pace help in this one. SNAKE OIL CHARLIE doesn’t win often but he does fit here in terms of Beyers, and he comes off a solid effort for the place in his latest; dangerous if he can run back to that figure. SALT MINE sprinted in his return in what seemed to be a prep but he ran well for 2nd there; has to be strongly considered on the stretch-out.

EIGHTH RACE

MISSCHIEF MAAS was moving well through the lane in his latest when he finished third, beaten only a little over four lengths, and he should get an improved race flow today, with some speed signed on to his outside; eligible to make the last run in his first start off the claim for trainer Pat McBurney. MIA BELLA ROSSA was caught down inside, lacking room, for much of the running in his latest but he overcame that trouble to score easily; he’s another who should benefit from the likely race flow. GREAT RHYTHM rises after making short work of a weak field in his latest;

NINTH RACE

SENSIBLE MYTH turned in a robust last rally for the place two back, and though she was outrun at Laurel last time she was in against stakes company; back in with allowance types here and she should make her presence felt late given a clean trip and honest splits. JERSEY LIFE was with the race flow in each of her last two, and that’s a knock, but she is a consistent turf sprinter who always runs her race under these conditions; tactical speed another plus. SWEET YARE N DIRA ran well in defeat in both of her two starts at the meet, earning representative figures each time; should once again be in an ideal spot behind the speeds.

TENTH RACE

DANCIN DEBBIE is worth a shot against likely prohibitive favorite DON’T TELL VANESSA, as she might be able to get the jump on that runner given an alert break from her inside post; new barn wins at a relatively high rate. DON’T TELL VANESSA is clearly the one they have to beat, and the board will reflect that; won two straight with the aid of favorable race flows, which could mean she regresses here without that luxury, but she’s certainly the most likely winner. SILVER MAJORETTE has decent recent figures and enough positional speed to at least stay close early on.