ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, WEISSER

FIRST RACE

The last program of a 4-day week (reminder: there are 5 race days next week, with action on Wednesday) gets under way at 12:45 ET with the familiar guessing game of which 1st-timer has been primed to win right off. Let’s go with PERSPIRE, whose Arindel/Gold connex are doing their best to establish themselves as a formidable team with babies like this one; tons of morning prep toward this. Just to her inside, MICAH’S GIRL breaks from the rail with a valuable first start behind her, and now Carlo slaps on some blinkers; improvement fully expected. JO SWEETNESS closed stoutly in outrunning her 21-1 price in her debut 3 weeks ago and now comes well-drawn in the outer box.

SECOND RACE

Obviously this daunting stretchout to a mile is the big question surrounding HONZA in this bottom-level N3L spot; his first try off the Zerpa claim suggests he should be in front by the time they pass the quarter-pole, and the ‘blinks off’ move is designed with energy conservation in mind; up to Jaramillo to get him there with something in reserve. If there’s only fumes left, KING MAURO could be the one to go past; turf-to-dirt and ‘blinks on’ angles to deal with here. BLUEGRASS ENVY, the ‘other Barboza,’ will make for some tricky strategy for the top pick.

THIRD RACE

Been a terrific summer meet to date for de la Cerda, who finds a nice spot here for ANGELINO, a good third vs. slightly better in his last crack at a turf mile; February claim hasn’t exactly paid dividends, but there’s still some decent salvage work to be had. BOOMING BODHRAN has been largely ignored by the fans throughout his career, but not today, as this drop by Antonucci is worthy of a close look; well-drawn toward the hedge when coming armed with very competitive Beyers. SARATOGA BEAST surely will be prominent when stretching out and dropping smartly in his first grass attempt.

FOURTH RACE

He’s been facing much cheaper, having run for a mere $6,250 just two starts back, but RICHEST GIFTS really seems to be coming around, and it looks like Joey O. has made a nice claim of an up-and-coming 3yo; legit test in this hike to the 1x level when facing a couple of proven older horses, NORTHERN and SILVER DEFENSE, both of whom can boast the occasional big prior effort and of course are capable in this competitive spot.

FIFTH RACE

Heady effort by MS. VIOLETTE off an 8-week layoff points her out as quite possibly the one to beat in this bottom-level N2L turf mile, even with that 1-for-20 record (mehh) jumping off her page; there or thereabouts, anyway, in what shapes up as a deep one. CAPTAIN CAROL takes a subtle class drop when likely to have needed her last start; expecting her to kick late. MADDY’S SALSA was a sharp 2nd at this same level 4 Sundays ago and figures in the mix again.

SIXTH RACE

Resumption of the 2yo guessing game finds The Big Prize Wheel landing on LOVESICK following that bullet drill last weekend for Fawkes, whose proficiency with the babies is well-documented;

speed-bred firster ought to be scooting at once from her tricky rail slot. On the opposite end,

LITTLE DOO should have no excuses from her outer box for Arindel/Gold; yet another one with a.m. drills aplenty. EVA’S GIFT and MYRRH, both from winning barns, surely will garner their share of action.

SEVENTH RACE

All the frustration from those photo-finish losses incurred by HE’S A LEADER in his last 2 starts can be eradicated with just a little follow-through today; he’s clearly the best of these, on paper, anyway; no hanging allowed. OURS DREAM FLY makes a very interesting jump from nothing but sprints for Barboza; blinkers come off; surely will be sent by Batista from his outside post. SHIDOSHI, with five 2nds/3rds on his page, can save all the ground before picking up yet another check.

EIGHTH RACE

Another grudge match pitting FLYING GIRL and QUEEN ROLLER is all set in the wake of their ferocious duel two Sundays ago, when the latter nipped the former; won’t take much for the tables to turn in this open bottom-level mile for fillies and mares. BREAK AWAY, fourth in the Aug. 5 key race, can slug up again for a minor award.

NINTH RACE

Open-air outside box can be the gateway for IMMACULATE HEART as this daughter of the prodigious Kantharos comes unveiled by Pinchin, who once again has his hands on a promising crop of 2yos; steady work slate says she’s capable. She’ll have to overcome the experience of the two insidedrawn fillies, DOUBLE MEDAL and CHARLOTTE THE BRIT (blinks on), both of whom flashed ability in prior appearances.

TENTH RACE

He couldn’t handle First Mondays, the unbeaten Curlin colt who’s stakes-bound up north, but WEISSER put forth a solid effort nonetheless 3 Sundays ago when third at this same 1x level; steady Arindel homebred comes the day’s best when finding the right kind of spot. RED CRESCENT loves to share without winning; yet another 2nd or 3rd to tack on. AGUJERO, a sharp 2-back winner for a ‘beaten’ condition, outran his 16-1 odds in the key 7/29 race and will need to do just a bit better today.

ELEVENTH RACE

Looks like Ralph Nicks is the central figure in this turf sprint restricted to non-stakes winners, with HIGH HOURS perhaps his best chance. Victory has somehow eluded this Brazilian-bred since Team Valor went and got him, but he’s faced some solid opposition along the way; sneaky rail trip under Vasquez can snap the drought. Right alongside, STARSHIP WILDCAT will make them all work; he’s a fast one whose name will get at least a few calls from Announcer Pete. SIGHTED, the ‘other Ralphie,’ is something of an unknown as a 3yo who’s never raced on grass; the talent’s there, though.

TWELFTH RACE

Fairly aggressive move from Richie et. al. in sending R LUCKY DICE on a plunge to the maidenbottom, as this filly already put forth a couple of decent efforts for higher tags and now goes turfto-dirt on a slight stretchout; partly explains why the stable wins at such a high rate. ELEGANTE ran big in her first try under the Dibona banner; comes the main foe. GLOTONASA surely will show big speed from her rail post.