ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, POINT TO REMEMBER

FIRST RACE

CANADIAN FLYER isn’t a dirt horse so won’t get too caught up in his tiring run in the slop off the layoff, which he likely needed anyway; lightlyraced 6yo has made only 13 starts so don’t think starting back in claiming races is a big negative and he is better than these horses if he can still run. RAPPEL has never won going this short but he has run well over this course and distance in the past, and do prefer him as a turf sprinter; dropped to win two back on turf and he was never going to win that race on the dirt last time. BELGIAN improved immediately when turned back to sprint on turf late last year and he ran well two back to just miss in a longer race when beaten to the early lead at Belmont; first on turf for a dangerous trainer off the claim.

SECOND RACE

WAPPINGER dropped for her first start off the change to Gargan and chased wide on a day when speed was good, before weakening late behind a front-running stablemate; one more chance at this level, hopefully over a fast track. ZECHA was also in that race at the level that was wired by Lady Vicki and she was in some early traffic down inside after a bit of a slow start; gate issues have hindered her progression but she fits here and has had some excuses along the way. Debuting older horses for a tag is not a strong move for Pletcher (past five years, 6 for 49, 12%, $0.88 ROI, all of the wins at Gulfstream) but his STAY GOOD is a new face to an otherwise uninteresting group, and she is a half to Sudden Surprise, an 11-time dirt sprint winner with several stakes wins and over $700k in earnings to his credit.

THIRD RACE

POINT TO REMEMBER improved on the stretch out last time but couldn’t get ta much-improved Wooderson in a race that went in similar final time to the Grade 1 CCA Oaks later on the card; tough to beat in this spot if backing that race up. LABEQ switching from turf to dirt from a good post and looking to improve for top connections; hasn’t done much to get excited about so far but he was in behind a slow pace in his most recent dirt start, before taking a shot and getting turned away, and he is bred to handle the added distance. DOMAIN tried different tactics sending for the lead ahead of POINT TO REMEMBER last time but was no match late while settling for a clear 3rd; good fit here and won’t be compromised by dynamics.

FOURTH RACE

INTRODUCED sold up after breezing 10-flat in March and she debuts for a trainer who excels with turf sprinters; dam is a sister to the good turf horse Giant Run, and second dam is turf graded stakes winner Who Did It and Run. MISS HANNA JO a More Than Ready filly debuting for Chad Brown and she is out of a mare who won 11 of her 18 career starts sprinting on turf, including several stakes races; long series of works leading into this. Not surprised to see Asmussen trying to get SUPER SIMPLE to turf based in her pedigree, as she is a half to Super Surprise, who won the Bolton Landing up here as a 2yo in her turf debut; unlucky to even be eligible for this after coming out on the wrong end of a terrible DQ early in the meet.

FIFTH RACE

ROLL TIDE ROLL stepping up from a tough post in this spot but like that he has shown that he can still run since starting back from a long layoff for his excellent trainer; ships in off an easy win vs. weaker with the back class to handle the rise. KING KRANZ tough to get behind as he drops to the bottom in his first start since being claimed for $62.5k last month, but he clearly has the races to be tough in here. FOREST BLUE ran two of his better races this spring to prevail in a pair of close finishes at Belmont, though he was disqualified from one of those wins; claimed for the third consecutive time most recently when defeated by the streaking MISSLE BOMB as the favorite.

MISSLE BOMB also off the claim but right back at around the same level as he looks for his seventh consecutive win sprinting on dirt; think this is tougher but he can’t be stopped right now and his new trainer does an excellent job.

SIXTH RACE

LITTLE CODE was too late in a race that was not coming back for her at Belmont two back but she bounced out of there to post an easy win at Monmouth and prior turf form suggests that she is going to be tough here dropping back down in class; projects to have a better set up this time with plenty of speed signed on. LADY LOVE also benefits from ant pace that develops as a deep closer, though she is going to need to catch all the breaks coming from the back; improved noticeably in Florida over the winter and she ran well last time in a tougher race for the level. ARCH OF TROY was in that same race with LADY LOVE last time and was closing too late behind a sharp winner; blinkers on this time if she can get in, but will have a tough post to overcome.

SEVENTH RACE

RUMBLE DOLL has managed just one win over the past two years but she has been running well right along in some very tough spots and she had no chance in her first start back this year when closing gamely in a race that was dominated wire to wire; think she’s too good for these with her good race, but she needs a trip and a setup. BLACK CANARY couldn’t hold late after showing speed in an off-the-turfer last month but she ran okay there while confirming that she is better off over these shorter distances; won her debut over course and distance as a 2yo and her only other start going this short on turf was a solid effort rallying from last off the layoff. FAIRYLAND a lightly-raced filly making what is essentially her 3yo debut here off the layoff and she has some speed to go with her upside; three tries sprinting on turf so far have come in very tough spots.

EIGHTH RACE

TWISTED TOM got bet for his 4yo debut at Belmont as though he was expected to be ready but he could only chase in that spot while never appearing to be a real threat, and he tired in the stretch; expecting a better effort second time back for NY-bred who won six of his seven dirt starts as a 3yo, including the Albany and the Empire Classic over this distance. PAT ON THE BACK was certainly in the right place at the right time with TWISTED TOM not firing off the bench, but that doesn’t allow enough credit to a horse who has been in career-best form this year; has something to prove around two-turns over this distance, but he is clearly a better horse now than he was last year when chasing TWISTED TOM to no avail. WINSTON’S CHANCE took advantage off a strong rail when wiring a field over this track and trip up here last summer at a big price, but it’s not as though that race came out of nowhere and he has continued on since that day to win three more times, including that last one sprinting up here; can get this trip and is adaptable to different pace scenarios.

NINTH RACE

RIENDO appeared to be a horse badly in need of a race when debuting in a tough spot at Belmont and he endured the kind of trip that is difficult to overcome at nine furlongs on the Belmont inner turf last time when breaking a bit slowly from an outside post and then chasing wide the entire way; big class drop for this as he moves inside. MILLIES PARTY BOY getting the class drop he needs in this spot and, unlike some of the others, he has already run a couple of races that would make him nearly unbeatable in this spot; just needs a trip. LEMON BLITZ faced NY-breds for the first time at this level two back and ran well that day to close ground into 2nd from behind a rated pace; don’t care about his most recent start when eased as the favorite over a muddy main track, but he has now been scratched twice by the vet since that race and will enter here off a layoff of over three months.