ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MONTE CRISTA

FIRST RACE

IRANISTAN posted three straight convincing wins when moved over to the jumps earlier this year then carried that form back to the flat off of a short layoff in his prep for the Smithwick, where he settled for second-best over a shorter trip; tried again over a distance that may be more to his advantage. PERSONAL START posted a pair of strong wins in his only two starts last year, including a blowout win in Grade 2 company; set to do better after going to the lead and tiring in prep for this. ALL THE WAY JOSE didn’t have an easy time of it in this race last year but he went forward from there and took down the Grade 1 Lonesome Glory at Belmont; looking to turn it around after three subpar starts this year.

SECOND RACE

WAR VALUE caught a wet track and a weak-looking field when switched to dirt for the first time over this distance, but don’t want to just dismiss that effort where she set a fast pace to run that field out of contention; good spot to try to back that race up in 1x field that didn’t come up nearly as strong as it could have. TIGALALU didn’t beat much first time out but she earned a competitive figure for that win over a difficult distance and she caught a sloppy track when finishing a tired 3rd over this distance in her second start; should be in close attendance to the pace and may appreciate getting back over a fast track. UNTAKEN a little light on figures for a made horse but she’ll get this trip and should be legged up after going long on turf recently.

THIRD RACE

MAC’S REVOLUTION by a new sire who has gotten a couple of early winners and he has pedigree on the dam side as a half to a couple of solid runners in Native Hero (11 career wins on dirt and over $250k in earnings) and Samadi Sky; underrated trainer doesn’t have many 2yos but he sent out a debut winning juvenile up here two summers ago for this same $50k tag. CADILLAC FRANKIE a half to Grade 3 winning sprinter Graeme Six from a winning dam who is a sister to two stakes winners; Rudy 11 for his last 43 (26%) with a $3.00 ROI debuting for a tag in dirt sprints. NOT THAT BRADY the first foal from Lisa’s Booby Trap, a stakes winner who won 10 of her 10 career starts and over $180k; Weaver has been a bit quiet up here so far but he is underrated with horses like this.

FOURTH RACE

THEODOSIA was no factor in a much tougher race last time but she has just missed in two career turf starts for a claiming tag, including game effort two back at this level for her prior connections; back to the right kind of spot in her second start for this trainer, who has excellent numbers second off the claim (20% with a $4.43 ROI over the past five years, including a near miss at 38/1 on turf). ROSEBUD’S HOPE won her turf debut for a tag at Fair Grounds then dropped back down and won again at Monmouth most recently; tactical speed a plus from her inside post. HOGANS HOLIDAY lone turf start so far came sprinting in her debut and she has caught three straight wet tracks while looking to get back on grass for there connections; threat if she can bring her improver form on the main track over to grass.

FIFTH RACE

PIPES stayed in to get a run over a wet track first time out and made a game late run into 3rd after getting out-paced early in that spot; bred to do better on grass for a trainer who has sent out some live young horses at the meet so far. GOOD WHEELS by Scat Daddy and a half to four winners from this dam, including three-time turf winner Over negotiate; Pletcher tends to pick the right

ones to debut sprinting on the grass. GRADED ON A CURVE by a sire off to a bit of a slow start but this one has pedigree on the bottom, being a half to turf winner Lovely La La from a dam who is a sister to J’ray, a multiple graded stakes-winner on turf.

SIXTH RACE

ROYAL EDITION dueled a fast pace and tired two back at Churchill then landed in a race where he couldn’t make the front from an outside post last time; can do better here if able to get to the lead as he moves to an inside post. OUR HONOR the one to beat dropping into the right kind of spot for leading trainer after getting closed down late at Parx last time; that race was run over a wet track but he didn’t appear to have much of an excuse there while blowing a clear stretch lead to a big longshot. EXPERT switching to dirt for the first time off the claim for connections who have had some success together with new acquisitions this year; pedigree suggests that handling the main track should be no issue.

SEVENTH RACE

DREAM PASSAGE back quickly and back to turf after finishing a no threat 3rd in a race rained off the grass six days ago; needed that class drop to finally break through with a maiden win in her 10th career start but she easily defeated colts that day and she has shown this year that she may just be better off going shorter in her races. SAMARA steps up off the claim for a dangerous trainer and benefits getting back on turf after finishing a respectable 2nd in the slop last time; capable turf sprinter can handle this class rise. SOUPER ECHO switched to turf for the first time on a class drop most recently and broke her maiden in frontrunning fashion; fast enough to make the top once again but she is facing some better horses this time.

EIGHTH RACE

CARMINE’S HONOR showed speed and tired in his first start with winners last month up here but he caught a sloppy track that day and doesn’t seem to be as comfortable over that kind of going as he is over fast dirt; not sure if he can back up his maiden win two starts back, but he was sharp that day and is a threat here if he can. D’YER MAK’ER getting a logical class drop here after finding the allowance and stakes ranks too much for him since breaking his maiden back in October of 2016; effort at the end of last year in race rained off the turf was better than it looks after a bit of a trip. BRONZE AGE has improved since cut back in distance and dropped in class for his last three starts out of town; new face looks like a good fit here for a trainer who has picked up a few wins recently after a slow start to the meet.

NINTH RACE

MONTE CRISTA won her first three turf starts impressively while improving her figures each time and she put herself in a bad position last time after breaking a bit slowly, which left her in the unenviable position of having to make a fivewide run to contention, and she only tired late in that spot; picks up hot rider as she ships in to face Saratoga stakes company, but she took on a good field last time and ran a winning race. SWEET STING improving from start to start for a trainer who is having a very good meet up here and she finished up well while only second-best to a sharp winner last time; good fit here and she still has upside. TAPIT TODAY stepping up to face better but she deserves the chance after galloping to two straight at Monmouth for the leading trainer; forward to go but wouldn’t take too short of a price on her.

TENTH RACE

SIENA MAGIC appears to be training forwardly into his debut for top connections and he is bred to handle this situation as a Candy Ride colt out of a dam who won both of her career starts sprinting on turf, including a stakes race. SHOWCASE MALL owns valuable experience in this field and while he didn’t run well last time in a race that was rained off the turf, that is not a race to judge him off of; though he ran well with a bit of a trip sprinting on grass first time out. LONHTWIST flashed speed and tired sprinting on dirt first time out in a race that appeared to be a prep, and he improved last time when stretched out on turf; cuts back with speed.