ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HAVE AT IT

FIRST RACE

RED ZINGER got into a little trouble when debuting in a stakes race downstate before making a game run to contention in the stretch and he appeared to still be a work in progress when floating wide and taking a while to level into a run when wired by his stablemate last time; scratched from a stakes race on Friday to await this. WOODBURY also scratched from Friday’s Funny Cide to run here; was entered MTO early in the meet and chased the fleet Dugout around the track before weakening late and settling for second-best, but he is eligible to improve quickly. JUST RIGHT got outrun and didn’t factor behind a sharp winner first time out but he took a step forward when just nosing out RED ZINGER last time; Pletcher’s 2yos have not been as dominant up here this meet as they usually are.

SECOND RACE

NO MANS LAND came wide and finished gamely for 2nd in his first start of the year then finished gamely after another wide trip to get up for 3rd in a race that was dominated up close last time; stretches out with a chance to improve in a field where the known quantities aren’t much. MIDNIGHT TEA TIME cut back on a slight class drop last time and settled for second best without any real excuse; can handle the stretch back out in distance off the claim for a trainer who has been having a good meet up here from the start. SARGEANT DRIVE may have won that race last time if not for getting put in tight in the stretch, though he also could have gotten through the hole if he had enough horse; contender but not one to take too short of a price on. SOLAR WARMING was racing on late in race rained off the turf in his only start as a 2yo; trainer doesn’t have strong numbers off of layoffs but he is a horse to consider at a fair price as he starts back on turf.

THIRD RACE

TAPIN THROUGH LIFE has been her own worst enemy from the start as a bad gate horse, and one who is difficult to handle in the running of her races, but she has shown some flashes along the way and benefits from this class relief if she can break and settle. BIG MISCHIEF doesn’t have a ton of turf in her pedigree but she fits a winning profile for this trainer and can be expected to show some speed as she stretches out from an inside draw; lands in a good spot here if she can handle the surface switch. MERGER ARBITRAGE improved from start to start without winning as a 3yo and she likely ran every bit as well as the 1-2 finishers when coming up just short in her 2017 finale; starts back with some class relief as the horse to beat.

FOURTH RACE

EYE LUV LULU had his usual speed but could only chase WEEKEND HIDEAWAY in the Morrissey last time, before holding on for 2nd over the unlucky CELTIC CHAOS; prior effort was strong in a tougher spot and it’s worth pointing out that while he once loved a wet track, that hasn’t been the case over the past couple of years. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY caught the kind of wet track he likes in the Morrissey and blitzed that field to take over early on a fast pace, before holding on late; 8yo doesn’t need rain to produce his best effort and he looks like the best speed once again. CELTIC CHAOS may have closed that Morrissey down if able to find a path late, but he would have been the beneficiary of a perfect trip and setup were that the case, and he is another who doesn’t mind a wet track; closer needs someone to go after WEEKEND HIDEAWAY early.

FIFTH RACE

CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD getting some needed class relief in this spot and finds himself in a race where his ample early speed may give him an advantage after landing in a pair of fast-paced races in his last two starts; speed makes him tough over this distance on the inner. VINCENTO stayed in with this race being moved to the main

track two weeks ago and just got nailed late after moving early and opening a clear lead in the stretch; had run some competitive turf races early in his career and he affirmed his affinity for this surface in his two starts at this level at Belmont.

MOBRIDGE had won three straight $25k claimers on turf vs. NY-breds heading into that last one and he looked set to make it four in a row before getting drifty in the stretch and getting nailed by the in-form VINCENTO; perfect post on the inside off the claim for a dangerous trainer.

SIXTH RACE

BAM BAM BLU didn’t run well at all in his career debut at Gulfstream but he looked like a different horse when showing more speed and airing on the drop in his second start, and he took to the turf strongly last time when overpowering a field under strong handling in fast time; takes the next logical step, but this is a strong field for the level. THUNDER’S HONOR has not found the easiest 1x race off the layoff but he was impressive winning his turf debut when last seen back in January and is eligible to come back even better as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut; horse that he ran down in that maiden win won impressively here on Thursday with an 87 Beyer. STOLEN PISTOL won the first three short turf sprints of his career vs. NY-breds then tried a much tougher spot last time and rallied for a piece after a wide trip; closer should have something to run at in this spot.

SEVENTH RACE

SAL THE TURTLE missed a lot of time after a strong start to his career led to a stakes placing and a run in the Mike Lee as a 3yo; didn’t run back to his early form following the layoff and was dropped in class, but he turned it around in a big way up here early in the meet and is going to be tough if he can run anything close to that as he steps back up in class. FLEET IRISH blew out weaker on the drop two back then cut back to this distance off the claim and closed gamely into a set up to go back to back; three career wins over this distance are as many as the rest of the field has combined. RIFF RAFF ran three straight solid race for his prior connections including an easy score over next-out winner Mr. Buff last time while keeping closer to the early pace; drops in price off the claim.

EIGHTH RACE

HAVE AT IT caught yielding ground in a Hall of Fame stakes that came up very strong this year and couldn’t make a late impact after getting outrun by a fast pace early; deserves another chance on firmer ground based on his progressive prior form, including that solid win two back in a strongly run allowance. WESTERLAND ran well while badly compromised by a wide trip in Manila that was slow early and fast late two starts back off the layoff, and he was also up against it in that Hall of Fame last time; blinkers back on for this and there appears to be enough speed signed on to set up his run. COMBATANT also benefits from any pace that develops as he looks to catch firm turf for the first time since his career debut; held his own along the Derby trail this year despite not benefitting as the distances stretched out.

NINTH RACE

SHORT POUR has some turf in her pedigree as a daughter of The Factor out of a dam who posted both career wins on synthetic, but who ran her race on grass, and she is debuting for a trainer who has been on a good run with his first time starters this year (Hennig 7 for his last 21 first out, $4.21 ROI, and while all of the wins have come on dirt he has had some success debuting on grass in the past). MATZO BELLA a half-sister to a very good turf sprinter in Miss Matzo Ball, and her dam is a sister to Madame Giry, who won multiple stakes sprinting on grass in her career; picks up speed rider from the rail. TRACI’S GIRL drawn wide for her debut but that isn’t always a bad thing sprinting on turf up here and she has some pedigree being from a dam who is a sister to Hampstead Heath, an eight-time winner on turf who put nearly $600k in the bank.