ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, VIBRANCE

FIRST RACE

Based on her better-than-looked fourth-place debut, VIBRANCE enters this dirt route for maiden 2yo fillies as the most probable winner on the card. First time out at a mile on turf, VIBRANCE broke from post 10, raced four-wide throughout while forwardly placed chasing a strong pace, then tired in the lane. Super effort. She has two easy main-track works since, and will be tough to beat with a better trip second time out. KEEPER OFTHE STARS, an evenpaced third in two sprints, stretches out with a running style that suggests two turns might be her preferred distance. ASK THE CUSTOMER split the field in her local debut in a turf route. She ran like a filly that can improve with a route under her belt.

SECOND RACE

Despite bad trips both starts this meet, JUST KIDDING ran well finishing second in both. He pressed a fast pace and held on best of the front-runners opening day; he was wide throughout last time. Up one notch to the $16k claiming level of his runner-up finish opening day, ‘KIDDING can wear down front-runner MY FARMER. The latter led gate to wire last out; he finished nearly three lengths in front of the top choice. Two-for-two since stretching out, MY FARMER set strong fractions both recent front-running wins. He will lead as far as he can. AVANTI BELLO was cold in the betting 10 days ago, and ran accordingly. He finished last. He drops below the $25k claiming level of his win two starts back, and is reunited with the rider that rode him to victory in that race. BAY AREA ships in from Golden Gate for a high-percent No Cal stable that won with 8 of its last 19 starters in Southern California.

THIRD RACE

The knock on MIDNIGHT MIRACLE is a dubious class drop second out, first off the claim. Otherwise, the 2yo filly should be tough to catch. She pressed a fast pace in her debut for an $80k tag, and actually ran well to finish third. But now she drops to maiden-32 first start for new connections. Seems like an excessively steep drop considering her creditable debut. Still, she could make the lead and be gone against this easier cast. CURRYFORTHREE BANG missed by a head in her debut, a low-rated race at this level. Improvement likely second time out. GEE CEE CEE pressed and faded in her debut, running like a filly that might move forward her second start. DISCO TALE did not have the greatest of trips in any of her three starts. Her speed figures are creeping forward, she also tries a rider switch. This race is a split of race 5.

FOURTH RACE

Dropping to Del Mar’s bottom class level for winners ($16k claiming, nonwinners of two lifetime), TOPGALLANT gets the nod. His thirdplace comeback early this month was decent, this is his first try at the basement level. WISE CURLIN has something the top choice does not. That is, speed. Runner-up twice vs. similar in spring at Santa Anita, he lost his rider at the break in his first start this meet. In light with a five-pound apprentice rider, he figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip in a field that does not include a whole lot of speed. SCHOENHARDT makes his first start in California for a stable having a big summer. And, this is the gelding’s first try at rock bottom.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden-32 sprint for 2yo fillies is the weaker split of race 3. Anything goes in this jumbled mess. NO THANKS ERIK got bogged

racing inside and behind runners last time; she finished sixth without really having a clear shot. She moves inside to outside and might be able to wear them down from off the pace. Maybe. Also-eligible DADDY’S MISTRESS has speed. She finished in the money her last three starts.

ROLINGA also has some speed. She set the pace and then tired to fifth last time in a Cal-bred maiden-claiming sprint. Race-3 contender Gee Cee Cee exits the same race. LUCKY FLASH showed speed and tired in her debut. This race is a wide-open raffle.

SIXTH RACE

A mile and three-eighths is a long way for BOLD PAPA, but he is facing easier in this N1X/optional claiming turf marathon than the $40k claiming field he finished third against last out. The gelding has held top form all year, his speed figures suggest he might simply be the fastest in the field. He can win first start off the claim. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ might have made the lead too soon last time in a similar turf marathon. He opened up by a length and a half in the middle of the stretch, only to get swallowed late. He finished a creditable second. He returns at the same level for the outfit that claimed him, he will roll late. HOT AMERICAN ran the best race of his career last time in the first marathon of his career. He rallied from far back to finish third by less than two lengths. Good comeback by an improving 3yo. TOUGH IT OUT has won three of four since he was claimed.

SEVENTH RACE

DICHOTOMY is back where she fits, in a stakes for Cal-bred 2yo fillies, after she was overmatched in the G2 Sorrento. She finished eighth at 48-1. Her maiden win two back was solid, she adds blinkers, meets easier and gets the call based on her solid maiden win two back. CREATIVE INSTINCT wired maidens in her debut four weeks ago, winning by nearly four. Although there was not much behind her, she won big and appears to have worked well since. First-time starter MUCHO UNUSUAL picked an unusual spot in which to make her career debut. Perhaps it makes sense. This field did not come up particularly tough, ‘UNUSUAL has trained well and her pedigree suggests she will appreciate the six-furlong distance. She is a sibling to distance turf stakes winner Big Score. Interesting spot for a new face, possibly at a price. GIVE ME A HINT wheels back 17 days after a runaway maiden-50 debut.

EIGHTH RACE

First start since January, first in a maidenclaiming race, INDOCTRINATION looks like the right horse in this turf route. He runs well fresh, and ran well (unplaced) with compromising trips three previous starts on this course. DATA CENTRAL also drops in for a tag for the first time, he has something the top choice lacks. That is, recent racing. He finished fourth last month vs. special-weight maidens; this group is easier. CULPABLE finished an okay fifth in his comeback when entered “not to be claimed.” He should improve second start back. BIG SKY LOGAN was gelded since his most recent start.