ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, AURELIUS MAXIMUS

FIRST RACE

ARE WE HAVING FUN YET did not have an easy time of it in her first start off the claim when wide on the first turn and trying to rally late over a distance too far, and over a wet track, and she was back on short rest when facing a couple of better horses last time; back to the $12.5k tag for this while returning to the distance of her last three wins. MADAME BARBARIAN received a heads-up ride going to the lead over that sloppy track last time and game and consistent mare made that early advantage stand up in the stretch to pull off a mild upset; good fit right back at this level off the claim and her typical race makes her a major contender. WOUND WITH HER EYES hasn’t been particularly competitive since being claimed back in March but raced for twice this claiming price in her first two dirt starts, and was in way too tough last time in a race that was rained off the grass; back to the right level for the first time since going back-to-back in pair of one-turn miles to clear her two-and-three life claiming condition for Rudy.

SECOND RACE

Thought LETTERMAN ran pretty well in her debut back in June while appearing to need that race, as he was rated back to last early and then had to steady behind horses into the turn, before putting in a four-wide run to contention and tiring in the stretch; not thrilled that he was entered for a $40k tag at Saratoga before having that race rained off, but this appears to be a spot where he can be competitive if able to build on that debut. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK sat a nice trip and came out secondbest in his debut a couple of months ago; didn’t get a race in at Saratoga but appears to be the horse to beat in this spot as he gets a slight drop in class. CLYDE’S RUNNER made a late run sprinting first time out and has since made two starts going longer at Saratoga, both in races that did not lend themselves to closing; needs some pace but can improve quickly if he catches some.

THIRD RACE

AURELIUS MAXIMUS debuted sprinting early in the Saratoga meet and ran a very good race in that spot while not appearing to be a speed and getting out-paced early, before making a game run to contention after a sharp front-running winner; looks tough to beat as he stretches out to a distance that projects to suit him much better. COTTON HOUSE debuted sprinting on turf and was no factor after chasing wide in a race that was dominated on the front end; bred more for dirt and for distance being out of a mare who posted all four career wins on the main track and was Grade 1-placed twice. FULLNESS OF TIME was outrun down along a dead rail early in his debut behind an impressive winner, then rallied for 2nd once getting off the inside for the final furlong of that race; stretches out.

FOURTH RACE

SEIZE ran some nice races early on in his career before losing his way a bit last year; was back to his best with a soft trip on the lead at Churchill last time and turns up with a change to Jason Servis off an apparent private purchase and Servis has numbers in situations like this that are hard to ignore (past five years, first after trainer change: 22 for 66, 33%, $3.86 ROI, 4 for 11 in turf sprints in that sample, $5.47 ROI). BLESSED HALO won his turf debut when loose in a race with no closers, then broke through the gate before chasing the razor-sharp Sandyz Slew in his next start; game try when last seen contesting the pace in a race that went to closers late. FEAR sat a perfect trip when winning a turf sprint at Laurel two starts back but he won that race easily with a new top figure and that kind of trip would likely play well in this field, which is not lacking for pace. BIG ROCK and BLACK TIDE are the two runners in the field with perhaps the best turf form overall, but BIG ROCK hasn’t been at his best this year and seems to do his best running at Saratoga, and BLACK TIDE is trying a difficult cut back here after losing his best form going longer.

FIFTH RACE

LEZENDARY’s three races since winning the Cicada back in March give her no real chance here, but she has caught a couple of sloppy tracks in those starts and was just no match for the sharp Sower in the Jersey Girl; looked to be improving early this year and lands in a spot here where her speed can make her dangerous. There is nothing flashy about HAY FIELD on the track but she has improved noticeably to win four of her five starts since being claimed by sharp connections, including a game victory to close down open allowance rivals at Saratoga with a new top figure early in the meet; this race may not set up all that well for her, but that hasn’t really mattered to her during this current streak. PICTURE DAY prevailed in race rained off the turf and contested over a sloppy track at Saratoga off a bit of a freshening, and that time off appeared to do her some good as she was not in the best form of her career prior to hitting the sidelines; plenty of back form to make herself tough in this spot and she can keep the pace in range.

SIXTH RACE

HOBOE has a long layoff to overcome in this spot but he was in very good form on turf as a 3yo and there really isn’t much to this race when you get right down to it; good effort to close down a slow pace with relative ease in that last start before going away and he returns as a new gelding. HONOR UP wasn’t defeating the strongest field when taking his turf debut but gave him extra credit for closing down a clear leader when only clear for the final furlong; thought he ran okay last time while coming up short as one of the few in that field to do well while unable to save any ground throughout the running. BRIMSTONE up off the claim and moving to turf for the first time in quite a while, but worth remembering that he was okay on turf early in his career; has speed in a race that seems unlikely to be run at a quick pace. MO DIDDLEY a contender as he may simply have hated the yielding ground last time, but didn’t love his prior turf efforts and he’s likely to be a relatively short price in this race.

SEVENTH RACE

LARCENY hasn’t done all that much running in his first two starts but he was bumped at the start of his debut and then was brushing all through the upper-stretch while chasing a solid winner in that spot, and he was off slowly in perhaps the strongest 2yo MSW of the meet at Saratoga last time; will take his experience in a race where the firsters didn’t catch my eye. CUTTING HUMOR looking to turn around the fortunes of the 2yos from this barn back at Belmont after a tough go of it at Saratoga; $400k yearling is a half to a stakes winner from an unraced dam who is a sister to the very fast synthetic-era sprinter Zensational. CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY was purchased for $180k after a 10.2 breeze back in March and she is the first foal from this dam, who had speed and posted all three of her career wins sprinting on dirt; put in a couple of works on the grass at Saratoga before returning to post a bullet breeze on the dirt. BRING THE DOUGH the third foal from his dam, but the first to make it to the races; dam did all of her best work on synthetic tracks, but was Grade 2-placed on dirt and second dam is the great Jewel Princess.

EIGHTH RACE

NO NEED TO APPEAL needed that added distance she finally got last time and she was game to prevail there after finally forcing her way off the inside in the late stages; steps up having to improve but think this is more along the lines of what she wants to do and there are no killers in this field. BERNED was holding on late over a track she loves last time, but she was much the best there after mid-moving to contention and then carrying on gamely with that run in the stretch; closer needs some pace to develop in front but she can fire around one-turn and Bravo fits her well. DIVINE MISS GREY held on after gaining early control when stretched out two starts back, but was under pressure last time and no match for BERNED in the stretch; dangerous speed with plenty of back figures if she can shake loose.

NINTH RACE

DOUPS POINT appeared to really need more distance out of that late-running debut but he landed in a tough spot last time in a race that was run at a fast pace over the wrong distance, and was won impressively by Some-like it hot brown, who then returned to finish a good 2nd in a Grade 3; blinkers on in MSW field that did not come up that strong. PIPES made a late run for 3rd over a sloppy track first time out then kept closer and chased gamely before coming up short in his turf debut last time; stretches out with the pedigree to handle the distance. ICEY CASH did no meaningful running in his dirt sprint debut; sire does not inspire confidence on the surface switch but he is the first foal from this dam, who won multiple stakes on the grass for this trainer.