ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PURE ONE

FIRST RACE

HEIR TIME got some play in her 2YO debut but she broke slow and then just didn’t fire. She took some time off as if something might have gone awry. Works are fine but better yet Jaramillo gets off the outside runner to end up here. DUDE’S SECRET has marginal turf breeding so we’re willing to forgive her two turn grass tries. Her dirt debut last out was OK. Maybe she isn’t done improving. R SHOWGIRL just missed in her debut but you can see that, right? We like that she draws outside. We would like her more if we saw a recent work. LA GATA MALA is by a 18% debut sire. Her dam missed the board in only start. Of 4 sibs to race, 3 won and 2 beat winners (two best earned over 100K each).

SECOND RACE

WANDA GIRL puts races together and that’s a good thing. We now know that she is simply best in a turf sprint. Race flow is fine and we like this inside post. RICHIE’S SISTER needs to crack her neighbor to the outside and get an early breather. If so, we could see an effort like those 2 and 4 back. TRAPPE ME LATER probably didn’t want 6 1/2 panels two back. Those efforts before and after were solid. If this comes off then the playing field might tilt in her favor. If she wants the lead we don’t see how she wins as the outside two press hard .... on the turf that is.

THIRD RACE

R LUCKY DICE needs a decent break to find the front end today where an early breather is her reward. First time winners is no picnic but this filly has the best upside. Added half furlong actually helps theft chances. If the umbrellas come out then her 425 wet Tomlinson comes in handy. MEMORIZE tried first time winners last out and her Beyer only gave back 4 points. We like that connections want this tricky distance right back. SILVER THREADS should come from off the pace even though there isn’t much pace in here and even though the blinkers go ON. That distance try two back was quite nice. Current form is rock solid.

FOURTH RACE

PURE ONE doesn’t race that often so when she does connections mean business. This filly is bred to like the grass but love an off track just in case the rains come. Recent work was solid and it came on a wet track. This filly draws wells and gets some pace to chase. CHRISTMAS MAGIC has speed and the rail. Lone turf try was better than it looks as it was first time two turns and versus open foes. Jock switch provides a steady hand with Zayas up. CALLIE CALIFORNIA has shown speed of late but maybe she would be better coming off the pace today as we doubt she can clear this field. She is feeling great and has never missed the board in the wet.

FIFTH RACE

ARRIVEDERLA is by a 15% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam was un-raced. Of 6 sibs to race, 4 won and all 4 beat winners (the best banked 662K). This colt has a sire fee of 3K but sold for 10X that. He has two works but we’re thinking he was working somewhere before heading here. PERSISTENT RUN tried the grass in his debut and was sent off at 61-1. He isn’t bred for the grass so that was a simple prep to us. He did show a little speed though. This is dam’s first foal. MONEY COME has never run poorly in two career starts. He did break much better in his second start. Equipment change is noted. SHANGHAI GO GO is by a 11% debut sire His dam went 21-6-2-2 for 61K. Both sibs are winless.

SIXTH RACE

NOT QUITE READY is by a 12% debut sire and 12% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-1-0-0 for 11K. Of

7 sibs to race, 6 won and 4 beat winners. Two of four sibs that ran in the United States won on the grass and both won their grass debuts. Three sibs won in Japan and earned 227K, 623K, and 398K (we don’t know what surface they won on). Works are plentiful and this colt did cost 150K. NOTSOSUBTLE tried two turns on the turf in his debut and beat over half the field home. Then after a short layoff he returned to finish second on the dirt. Maybe he is just good no matter the surface. BRILLIANT LIGHT is a grinder that will appreciate it if this comes off. DAS DA ONE is by a 12% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 11-3-2-1 for 167K (0 for 1 on the grass). Of 4 sibs to race, 3 won and all 3 beat winners. Two sibs failed to win on the sod but both did hit the board. NUECES STRIP is by a 13% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 7-1-1-2 for 30K (2-0-1-1 on the green for 20K). Of 4 sibs to race, 3 won (1 beat winners). Three sibs failed to win on the weeds but one did hit the board.

SEVENTH RACE

GOLDEN ALINA goes from a 13% barn to a 22% one. She ran a Beyer top in her debut so firing fresh shouldn’t be a problem. Speed and the rail can’t hurt. AWESOME CLUE does have some upside. Lack of front speed hurts a tad. She shouldn’t be a maiden too much longer. QUAKER MAID just ran better and maybe a one turn mile is what she does best. Or maybe she likes getting a weight break.

EIGHTH RACE

K K’S REVOLVER went from a 11% barn to a 42% barn and ran better. Second time with new outfit should be of a further benefit. Lone knock is penchant for less. SIORNO ran well two back and then probably bounced last out. If things break just right then maybe this gelding gets good race flow. DEBDURITE is the fresh face from Louisiana. He has some speed and adds distance today. We’re guessing local H-cappers won’t respect Evangeline lines and the price will entice.

NINTH RACE

DIFAMANTE won his debut even though it was two turns on the grass and he had some trouble. He did so at almost 28-1. Alas, a long layoff since and connections return him at this 16K. Scary, right? He only cost 20K so connections can risk it and we think the time off scares away any claim. We love that a turf spot is found. WAKE ME UP AT NOON just ran a Beyer top. New barn is 25% off the claim. This horse has worked twice since the claim. CAN’TTAKEITWITHYOU might be coming around as most recent was better. This gelding is bred to love the grass and it wasn’t that long ago that he was firing Beyers in the 70’s on this sod.

TENTH RACE

EYE OF A JEDI ran well two back in a race pulled from the grass. This gelding has poor turf breeding so why won’t he like the dirt much more? We actually think his recent turf try was better than it looks. A great time to drop a notch and switch surfaces. CHEECH THUNDER just likes to win (41-11-2-6). He especially likes to win on this dirt. Main knock is that there isn’t much pace in this race. DEPUTY CZAR just ran a Beyer top when breaking his maiden and it came first time at a mile. We like that he has worked twice since. Tactical speed always comes in handy.

ELEVENTH RACE

COUNT ARCHIBALD switches barns and is now a gelding. Turf breeding is good and so were those tries 2 and 3 back. This gelding has a nice 418 wet Tomlinson in case this comes off. Lack of tactical speed hurts only a smidge. OURS DREAM FLY just ran better and is now a gelding. Could this be a new gelding exacta box race? This gelding draws better today. UNBRIDLED COYOTE was getting better before the short layoff. He has a couple of recent works so all is good. Race flow or lack thereof is the main knock for this closer.