ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ULTIMA D

FIRST RACE

UNITY has twice run well in two starts despite troubled trips, first running second at Indiana Downs following a poor start in an off-the-turf race and then with a third at Ellis Park after getting shuffled back. BIZZEE CHANNEL was bought privately after a promising debut at Arlington Park when dueling throughout and narrowly missing by a neck in a sprint on Polytrack; pedigree suggests he can handle a mile on turf. SALVATOR MUNDI, unplaced in two starts, was taken to Saratoga for his second race after a debut fifth at Ellis Park. Though the Saratoga experience didn’t work out, it at least showed faith from trainer Ken McPeek; improvement potential with blinkers off and Lasix added.

SECOND RACE

ULTIMA D, coming off three consecutive rear-half finishes, looks to end that skid in the second race. Although not in top form, she had excuses for some of those losses, such as running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year, for example. The main plus is the return to Kentucky Downs, where she won a stake last year on good turf going a long sprint distance. SILLA MANILA, on the other hand, hasn’t kept the same company but is at the top of her game. She has been first or second in three straight races at Delaware and goes for a winning Kentucky Downs stable; a so-so fourth over this course last year when it was yielding. POCKET BOOK owns some of the better speed figures in the race and is blessed with speed. 6 1/2 furlongs might be testing her stamina limit, however.

THIRD RACE

MANIACAL and BELGIAN form a powerful onetwo punch for all-time Kentucky Downs leading trainer Mike Maker in the third. An entry owned by Three Diamonds Farm, they both bring solid qualifications into this Claiming Crown prep, particularly MANIACAL, who comes off a second in open stakes company at Ellis Park. BELGIAN ran a distant second in his only start for Maker, though in an off-the-turf race that didn’t suit the horse as well as well as a grass race. BUSHROD is the main danger to the Maker duo, a horse coming off two straight victories, including a small stake at Canterbury in a turf sprint. Of the others, JUDAH seems the best - though he has not run as well outside of Mountaineer as he has in West Virginia itself.

FOURTH RACE

AQUAPHOBIA has proven a rewarding claim for $25,000, grossing $97,245 this year alone for Drawing Away Stable. He comes off a series of fine efforts in defeat in New York allowances when matched against Chad Brown-trained graded stakes winners. SWAGGER JAGGER is another suited to a class drop into this starter allowance prep for the Claiming Crown, having been fourth a couple times in open stakes in Indiana and Minnesota this summer; winning Kentucky Downs connections add to his appeal. HARV WON’T TAP and TURBO STREET are other contenders, with ‘HARV getting slight preference over TURBO STREET due to the latter returning quickly and shipping after winning $50,000 stake at Remington Aug. 24.

FIFTH RACE

Now fillies to take their turn in a starter prep for the Claiming Crown. Hard not like the form of PERU, who was second in the Claiming Crown Tiara last year in a tough beat behind graded winner Martini Glass; been keeping fine company throughout this year, though she is just one for six. NA PALI

SPIRIT has reversed a trend of runner-up finishes over the first half of 2018 by breaking out with a couple allowance wins at Arlington, first on turf and then on Polytrack. ROUSSALKA is a speedy stakes dropper that might have the quickness to make the lead and set a soft pace. With many of the leading contenders in this race more accomplished on dirt than turf, this seems a fitting time to go with a bit of a price: 6-1 shot SANITY. Although she lacks the stakes accomplishments of KIRBY’S PENNY and to a lesser degree, HONEY BUNNY, she is a horse at her best on turf and synthetic and looks well suited to sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on the Kentucky Downs lawn. KIRBY’S PENNY is clearly the one to beat on the basis of her recent form, established on dirt, which includes a victory in the Grade 3 Vagrancy earlier this summer. She won a turf sprint to kick off her career, but didn’t really start to flourish until moved to the dirt in the spring of 2017. Her tactical speed figures to lead to a good trip. HONEY BUNNY has proven a rewarding $16,000 claim for trainer John Ortiz and his clients, winning a stake at Prairie Meadows in May. Though her recent experience has come on dirt, she was an effective late-running turf sprinter at the Fair Grounds in cheaper races this winter.

SEVENTH RACE

MAY LILY is an honest allowance type, a filly that has hit the board in all of her races in such spots since breaking her maiden. Even last time when fourth, she ran a fine race to only lose by three-quarters of a length in the Ellis Park Turf, a race in which she was beaten a nose and a head for second. OH SO TERRIBLE, cross-entered in the Grade 3 Ladies Turf on Saturday, was beaten less than six lengths last out in the Grade 1 Beverly D at odds of 96-1. That race earned her a 92 Beyer, a figure that, if duplicated, would make her difficult to beat in here. She typically does not run that quickly, however, more often firing numbers in the 70s or 80s; a close fourth on debut in a prior start on this course as a 2-year-old. SUMMER LUCK possesses the positional speed to enjoy a nice trip, likely close to what should be a modest pace. She handled the grass here when second in the 2017 Dueling Ground Oaks to eventual Grade 1 winner Daddys Lil Darling.

EIGHTH RACE

HEAVENLY LOVE vaulted into prominence last fall here with a dominant maiden win over this course, after which she repeated with a victory in the Grade 1 Aclibiades at Keeneland. Disappointing since in six subsequent starts, she looks to get back on track under familiar conditions in Franklin. PAMINA is far more consistent than HEAVENLY LOVE, having been first or second in all five of her starts. She proved her class with a fine second in the Grade 3 Pucker Up at Arlington, and having already won as far as 1 1/8 miles, might be a little better suited to the 1 5/16-mile distance than others are. 12-1 shot OVER THINKING had been quiet for much of 2018 before coming around in her last two races, first with a runner-up finish on dirt at Churchill and then with a close fourth at Del Mar in a marathon turf race, a start that earned her an 88 Beyer. Like HEAVENLY LOVE, she won her only start on this course last year.

NINTH RACE

Though not reflected with any victories over his last four starts, nd CHANNEL CAT has steadily gotten faster this spring and summer, running lifetime best Beyers in four straight races. The fourth-place finisher from the Grade 1 Belmont Derby July 7, he held his own with older horses in an allowance at Saratoga July 30 as the runner-up to next-out stakes winner Focus Group. European BANDUA looks well suited to the conditions of the Dueling Grounds Derby, being a horse capable of staying the 1 5/16-mile trip and handling give in the ground overseas; a fine third in the Grade 1 Secretariat in a prior U.S. start when dismissed at odds of over 39-1. CAPTIVATING MOON was just a neck behind BANDUA in the Secretariat, running fifth with a belated rally. He handles wet course conditions, a possibility with a threat of showers in the weekend forecast.

TENTH RACE

Steadily improving ST. DENMAN has gone from seventh to fourth to second in three starts and could be ready to pick up a maiden victory with continued development; capable Kentucky Downs connections with this 10-1 chance on the morning line. SILVER SHIELD may have regressed somewhat in his latest at Ellis when fifth after having previously been a fine second after a year and a half away from the races; also was stuck with the far outside post last time going a two-turn mile at Ellis. LOVE SICK KITTEN looks to rebound from a speed and fade when sixth at Woodbine July 15. Excuse that loss and he fits off his other tries in Florida and Kentucky for a dominant Kentucky Downs stable.