ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, DOWNSIDE UP

FIRST RACE

There are reasons that likely favorite AVAIL could be vulnerable in this restricted $6,250 claiming sprint, but a lack of legitimate alternatives makes her the tepid choice. Claimed for $40k in March, she ran two good races thereafter, but rapidly descended in class since. Wagering on low-odds class droppers is not a long-term winning strategy, yet if she reproduces her most recent start one month ago she really should win. She finished fifth by a length and one-quarter, the first- and seventh-place finishers returned to win. SHARP HOLIDAY did not have a good trip in an 870-yarder last out, her three previous starts were okay. MY EBONY STAR wired similar two months ago while running the best race of her 25-start career. She is fast, she has won four races this year already, and probably would wire the field if she runs two alike. Come and catch her. This race is a split of race 3.

SECOND RACE

TWITTERATI ran okay in her local debut, third in a similar low-level maiden-claiming sprint after breaking tardily. After the bad start, she actually had a good trip (unaffected by the “trouble” in the stretch). She adds blinkers, meets relatively easy foes and might not need to improve much to handle this cast. But she will need a better start from the rail. She is trained by Mike Machowsky, who also entered PARTY ALL NIGHT. The latter finished fifth in the same race as the top choice. ‘NIGHT was not quick, raced evenly, and actually showed some late interest. With a race under her belt, improvement likely. First-time starter BAM BAMS LIL RIVER makes her debut for a top stable, facing a soft bunch.

THIRD RACE

This split of race 1 presents a dilemma similar to the opener. That is, a dropper at low odds. LOVELY LINDA pressed the pace and finished an okay fourth two weeks ago at Del Mar; she drops in class as the one to beat. It is unclear, however, if five and one-half furlongs might be shorter than she prefers. SMART RACHEL, listed as a vet scratch Aug. 12, figures off her maiden win on this racetrack in July. Win or lose, she will impact the pace scenario. DIAMOND PROOF seems to have improved since adding blinkers two starts back. She “stretches out” to five and one-half furlongs following a daylight win at four and one-half.

FOURTH RACE

First-time starter WHOOPING JAY debuts with a string of sharp workouts that suggest the Square Eddie homebred can fire first time out in this Cal-bred maiden race. GIVE ME THE LUTE also appears to have trained okay for his debut, while TAKE CHARGE LUCKY has fast works and is likely to be quick as are most first-time starters from this stable.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden-20 split of race 7 is a good spot to take a shot at a price with second-time starter GRAND MINISTER. He actually worked fairly well into his debut July 5, but he broke last from the rail and did not get going. Freshened two months, drawn outside this time, meeting a modest cast, he can post a minor upset. His recent workouts are very slow, which is normal from this stable. Looks like a live longshot. Ten-start maiden CAPTAIN N. BARRON looks best of the familiar faces. In the money three of his last four, including two on this track July, he figures for a forwardly placed trip with a five-pound weight break under the apprentice rider. JOHNNY RAY misfired at Del Mar, but in-the-money finishes four of his previous six starts put him squarely in the hunt. He is not particularly quick, but should be grinding away late. ROCINANTE has a pattern similar to the