Californiagoldrush can hold off closers

The focus Saturday shifts north of the border to Woodbine, where the Grade 1, $800,000 Woodbine Mile tops a card that also includes three other graded stakes – the Grade 1, $300,000 Northern Dancer Turf, the Grade 2, $250,000 Canadian, and the Grade 3, $125,000 Bold Venture.

Elsewhere, Churchill Downs has four stakes on its program, three of which are graded – the Grade 2, $200,000 Pocahontas, the Grade 3, $150,000 Iroquois, and the Grade 3, $100,000 Locust Grove.

Meanwhile, the feature at Belmont Park is the Grade 2, $400,000 Sands Point Stakes.

Sands Point Stakes

Chad Brown has three of the eight entrants here, but they aren’t as imposing a trio as one usually sees from his juggernaut stable. Reversethedecision has the look of a second stringer; Shadan, a new face from Europe, might be used as a pacesetter; and Barkaa, who appears the strongest, given she ran in Group 1’s in France in her last two (the French Oaks and French 1000 Guineas), finished behind Saturday opponent Capla Temptress in France in May.

I took a long look at Capla Temptress, not only because she finished ahead of Barkaa in the French 1000 Guineas, but also off her game second most recently to the terrific Rushing Fall in the Lake Placid. But Capla Temptress is a deep closer who might be compromised by the lack of real pace.

I like Californiagoldrush, who was a fine third last time out in the Del Mar Oaks after being three wide on the first turn and four wide on the far turn, and off a six-month layoff, to boot. Moreover, Californiagoldrush ran that well after being fairly close to a strong pace, suggesting she can get prominent early position Saturday, and first run on the deeper closers.

Locust Grove Stakes

Champagne Problems comes off two straight victories, including a strong score most recently in the Groupie Doll, and is in the best form of her career. The thing is, Champagne Problems has always been a bit shaky going the two turns she must travel Saturday. Perhaps she is so good right now that stretching out to a route won’t be a problem. But I have to see it first.

The striking thing about this race is the lack of legitimate early speed. This could help Blue Prize, who has positional early foot and won Grade 2 stakes in her last two starts over Churchill’s main track. But Blue Prize has been away for three months and she might need this race.

The lack of pace also helps Pinch Hit, another with positional early foot, and who is my play in the hopes she is sent right to the front and never looks back. Pinch Hit was no match for Champagne Problems when third in the Groupie Doll, but she steadied twice early between horses, and the dynamics of this race are more favorable. Pinch Hit won a stakes at this distance two starts back at Indiana Grand, and was arguably best when a narrowly beaten second to Champagne Problems three back.

Woodbine Mile

If the real Oscar Performance or Delta Prince produce their “A” races, they could have this Woodbine Mile to themselves. But it’s hard to completely trust Oscar Performance after he was eased in the stretch of the Arlington Million, even if he has worked well since. And though Delta Prince has indeed become the good horse he was cut out to be, he did have the measure of Voodoo Song in deep stretch of the Fourstardave last time out, and simply couldn’t close the deal.

In what I admit is a flyer, I’m going with Good Samaritan. Early in his career, when he focused on turf racing, Good Samaritan was arguably better than Oscar Performance when third to him after a terrible trip in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. And early last year, Good Samaritan’s late kick was severely compromised by slow paces when close to Oscar Performance in the Pennine Ridge and Belmont Derby.

Good Samaritan has raced exclusively on dirt since he crushed the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing in the Jim Dandy last summer, but with subsequently spotty results. That said, he has been knocking heads with much better horses than he faces Saturday – horses such as West Coast, Diversify, Bee Jersey, and Mind Your Biscuits. Good Samaritan now moves in with an easier group, and he might also be returning to what might be the surface he really prefers.