ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Belmont -

BEST BET: RACE 7, AS­TOUND­ING

FIRST RACE

LA CAT WAR­RIOR ran well enough to win this in the first two starts of his ca­reer then was badly com­pro­mised while chas­ing wide from an out­side post over a gold rail track in his fi­nal start be­fore go­ing to the side­lines; re­turned from a long lay­off to chase bet­ter horses to no avail, but he didn’t give way in that race and re­turns on the drop for a trainer who has a good record first time for a tag (past five years, first time for a tag, dirt sprints: 7 for 39, 18%, $3.61 ROI). COMEONCOMEONCAT ran well both two and three starts back while con­test­ing fast paces from the start, then tried to rate last time and got wired; lands in a spot here where his early speed can be ef­fec­tive. CLASS WON’s two races in NY are not his best and he had no ex­cuse last time while up there on the pace with the even­tual win­ner and prov­ing to be no match, though that horse was on a big class drop; tough here with his best ef­fort, as­sum­ing we get it.

SEC­OND RACE

IT JUSTHITTHE WIRE didn’t take much money for her ca­reer de­but and she didn’t show speed that day, but she was pro­fes­sional while im­prov­ing her po­si­tion while down on the rail through­out and then fin­ished gamely to pre­vail late de­spite get­ting dis­qual­i­fied for in­ter­fer­ence late; pre­fer her ex­pe­ri­ence in this field and like that she moves to an out­side post this time. BAL­LET SLIP­PERS was en­tered and scratched on 8/12 at Saratoga and then missed three weeks of train­ing af­ter that which is a cause for some con­cern but has a nice pedi­gree as the first foal from her stakes-win­ning dam, and her sec­ond dam is the Grade 1 win­ner Bal­letto. JASMINESQUE has a pedi­gree to go longer and de­buts for a trainer who doesn’t push for early suc­cess, but she may be pre­co­cious af­ter work­ing 10.2 in April prior to be­ing pur­chased for $220k; dam was stake­splaced twice in her ca­reer and is a sis­ter to a pair of nice horses in Grade 1 win­ner Ma­te­ri­al­ity and Grade 2 win­ner My Miss Sophia.

THIRD RACE

VIA EGNATIA looked like a horse in need of that first start back from the lay­off af­ter mak­ing a move to con­tention around the turn and then tir­ing out read­ily in the stretch; can’t stand up on dirt but his two turf ef­forts last year over this course were solid ef­forts, es­pe­cially that sec­ond one when con­test­ing a fast pace and pre­vail­ing, only to get closed down late. MOR­RI­SON has im­proved no­tice­ably this year and he ran well twice in strong races vs. straight 3yos over the sum­mer, be­fore go­ing to Saratoga to dom­i­nate NY-breds over yield­ing ground; good try last time when forced to sit off the speedy Black Tide early then gamely driv­ing him down in the stretch, be­fore the closers came to take over. UN­LOCK THE PO­TEN­TIAL has some­thing to prove against a field like this one as he stretches out for the first time but his two turf races are good and are sep­a­rated by a lay­off; in­ter­est­ing and a rare run­ner who could be a square price from this barn.

FOURTH RACE

QIAN B C took some money but didn’t break sharply from the gate and then over­re­acted when hav­ing to check on the turn in his de­but, which cost him dearly in a race that was dom­i­nated up close; still raced on gamely down on the hedge in the stretch and he is el­i­gi­ble to im­prove quickly with a bet­ter trip. BOBBY MAN by a sire who is un­der­rated with 2yos but who has not been par­tic­u­larly ef­fec­tive on turf, while his dam has dropped noth­ing but run­ners, in­clud­ing a cou­ple who han­dled the grass; trainer lights out with horses like this and not one to just dis­miss - Ter­ra­nova 5 for his last 14 with first time starters in turf sprints with win­ners at 50:1, 25:1, 19:1, 11:1 and 10:1 (ROI $17.37). WICKED GRIN sat a nice trip and couldn’t by the ex­pe­ri­enced An­a­lyze this and that when mak­ing his de­but at Saratoga; tac­ti­cal speed a plus but he had no ex­cuse there and is likely to be a short price in this race. BY DAWNS EARLY LIGHT didn’t show any speed first time out and wound up wide and rac­ing greenly while fail­ing to make an im­pact; well-bred colt can im­prove with that race out of the way.

FIFTH RACE

H MAN was de­feated as the fa­vorite when mak­ing his first start off the claim at Saratoga but he only tired late af­ter break­ing slowly and then hav­ing to do a lot of work just to get into that race in the stretch; he’s no great shakes at a short price at this level, and his last three wins have all come over wet tracks, but he’s also bet­ter than th­ese horses with his good race. Like the top one, PROLETARIAT has had his chances to get through this con­di­tion with­out any suc­cess but he’s ac­tu­ally run well with things work­ing against him sev­eral times along the way and is an­other with a top race that fits well in this field. ROYAL HEIST ran well with­out win­ning in his first two starts on con­tested paces then got loose and earned a fig­ure of 74 to break his maiden two starts back; a fig­ure like that won’t do in this field but he is lightly-raced with speed.

SIXTH RACE

CALL THE CAT didn’t run poorly in his turf de­but as a 2yo while mak­ing the pace and last­ing for 3rd and while he didn’t run well in his re­turn from the lay­off he was reined in right from the start of that race, which left him stuck in a wide trip vs. bet­ter horses, and he was pro­tected from be­ing claimed in that spot; drops look­ing to do bet­ter at a price in a race with­out a stand­out. NOVUS never fac­tored in his de­but de­spite be­ing in a race that col­lapsed in the stretch; did bet­ter to pre­vail for 2nd be­hind a front-run­ning win­ner when dropped to this level for his 3yo de­but. TOM’S MU­SIC may have reached the end of the line as far as his de­vel­op­ment goes but still think his lone turf start rout­ing as a 2yo is the best race he’s run; has been show­ing more speed sprint­ing this year but wouldn’t mind see­ing him taken back off the pace this time as he stretches back out off the trainer change.

SEV­ENTH RACE

AS­TOUND­ING has run a se­ries of strong races since switched to turf and he has picked up where he left off this year, an­nex­ing his 1x con­di­tion off the lay­off at Mon­mouth and then fin­ish­ing gamely while badly com­pro­mised by dy­nam­ics at Saratoga last time. SY­CAMORE LANE faced much bet­ter fields in his first two starts af­ter re­turn­ing from Cal­i­for­nia in June then dropped in class and sat a per­fect trip be­fore de­feat­ing $25k claimers late in the Saratoga meet; re-claimed by Mott out of that win and en­ters right back where he can win. LUCKY RAM­SEY didn’t break well and didn’t fac­tor off the Maker re-claim last time, but he had no chance there while trail­ing in a race that was dom­i­nated on the lead and has bet­ter races to get to; off the claim again for trainer who is ex­it­ing a very strong meet up­state.

EIGHTH RACE

MY BOY TATE went to the lead from the rail and weak­ened in the stretch to suf­fer his first de­feat sprint­ing in the Tale of the Cat last time but that race came off a lay­off and he earned an­other solid fig­ure for the ef­fort; lands in an­other short field in a race with­out much pace and may just be the best horse. TRUE TIM­BER is clearly a bet­ter horse sprint­ing and his best races have come when not hav­ing to go fast to keep up, which may be the case once again in this spot; tough here if he can re­peat that last ef­fort where he kept up on a mod­est pace and out­fin­ished fa­vored Pat­tern­recog­ni­tion, who re­turned to win with a 100 Beyer. CELTIC CHAOS a closer ex­it­ing a pair of strong runs up­state, though he has al­ways run well at Saratoga and that wet track didn’t hurt him two back when un­lucky in traf­fic late; up against it from a pace per­spec­tive but he is go­ing good right now.

NINTH RACE

MILLIES PARTY BOY dropped to this level for the first time at Saratoga and couldn’t im­pact late, but he has real trouble early in that race when shuf­fled back to last and then hav­ing to try to rally in some

traf­fic in the stretch; hasn’t been nearly as good this year as he was last year but he can have one more chance at this level. RIENDO got in too tough first time out then caught a dif­fi­cult trip while wide in a race that was wired in his next start; had com­pany on the pace all the way last time be­fore get­ting run over by a long­shot win­ner in the stretch, but he clearly fits well here and doesn’t need the lead to be ef­fec­tive. MR. MASSENA made his last two starts over sloppy tracks be­fore go­ing to the bench; starts back on turf where he was los­ing with­out ex­cuses late last year but run­ning races that would make him very com­pet­i­tive in a field like this and you may get a bet­ter price this time.

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