ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Los Alamitos Race Course -

BEST BET: RACE 6, ST. JOE BAY

FIRST RACE

VE­GAS STRONG BABY adds blinkers, drops from maiden spe­cial-weight to maiden-50, and makes her sec­ond start in Cal­i­for­nia as the de­serv­ing choice over STAYTHIRSTYMYAMIGO. The lat­ter mis­fired last time on turf, but she was a 34-1 long­shot in that MSW and sim­ply over­matched. But her run­ner-up fin­ish two starts back, a race from which she was claimed for $32k, puts her in the photo with the top choice. The in­side post was a tough go the first two and a half weeks of the meet, how­ever. EASY PEASY broke slowly and went nowhere in her de­but, but she is likely to im­prove sec­ond time out. Wa­ger­ing value will be tough to find on this card; six-horse fields the first six races.

SEC­OND RACE

One fi­nal class drop to the maiden-20 bot­tom makes D D’S LUTE the one to beat. Maybe. Her ef­forts vs. MSW com­pany in win­ter and spring would be good enough. The ob­vi­ous knock is her last two starts were sub­par. The “now” filly is ESKENFORADRINK, claimed from a run­ner-up fin­ish last out, and re­turn­ing at the same level. First-time starter CHARM­ING ALEXIS de­buts with a bunch of slow works, but af­ter the top two choices, this field is shal­low.

THIRD RACE

With ac­cept­able cur­rent form, re­cent speed fig­ures fast enough for this $6,250 claim­ing level and proven form on this track, REV­EREND AL is the one to beat. He missed by only a length and a half last time in an $8k claim­ing race; the win­ner Lambo Luxx re­turned Thurs­day to win a starter al­lowance with a 77 Beyer. HACKLETON was cold in the bet­ting and sub­se­quently dis­ap­pointed nine days ago when he fin­ished third vs. re­stricted $6,250 claim­ing ri­vals. That race ac­tu­ally earned a de­cent fig­ure how­ever, so he fig­ures as a con­tender mov­ing up in class to un­re­stricted claim­ing. ROUGH PAS­SAGE won three in a row vs. lower-level claim­ing foes at shorter dis­tances than this five-fur­long trip. The sharp speed­ster might han­dle the class hike/longer trip.

FOURTH RACE

FOXY FRESH moves up the lad­der and stretches to five fur­longs seek­ing her third straight af­ter back-to-back wins at four fur­longs, and four and a half. She is proven at this dis­tance, she will be set­ting or press­ing the pace, and en­ters as sim­ply the fastest in the field. CIOPPINO PASADINO drops from $12.5k claim­ing to $6,250 claim­ing. She has speed, this is her eas­i­est chance in a while. LISA LARGO steps up fol­low­ing a big night­time win over lesser.

FIFTH RACE

EIGHTY THREE, run­ner-up two weeks ago af­ter set­ting a fast pace in a $20k claim­ing sprint, gets the call in this $25k claim­ing starter al­lowance. His most re­cent start was very good. He is typ­i­cally a presser/stalker, but in­stead found him­self du­el­ing for the lead. He shook off two pace ri­vals (they faded to fin­ish last and next to last), and did well to hold sec­ond. If ‘THREE can ra­tion his speed this time, de­spite a murky pace sce­nario, he can de­liver a win. HIT­TERS PARK is in top form, a win and two sec­onds from his last three starts in­clud­ing a run­ner-up try be­hind the top choice in late July. Good form, ad­van­ta­geous out­side post. BOY HOWDY drops from a highly rated $40k claim­ing sprint, while TREA­SURE HUNTER should be for­wardly placed.

SIXTH RACE

Graded stakes win­ner ST. JOE BAY en­ters this five­fur­long open al­lowance with much in his fa­vor. He drops from a fifth-place fin­ish in a Grade 1 sprint, he is quick enough to make the lead, and his re­cent speed fig­ures are tops in the field. The best, fastest horse in the field, ST JOE BAY is spot­ted for a low-odds vic­tory as the most prob­a­ble win­ner on the card. Lightly raced CAP­TAIN SCOTTY, 2-for-4, could give the fa­vorite a bat­tle if he runs back to his first two starts. Those were highly rated wins in a

MSW at Lau­rel and N1X at Santa Anita. But he fell short of ex­pec­ta­tions both re­cent starts: fourth in a Grade 1, and sev­enth last out af­ter he broke slowly and did not es­tab­lish po­si­tion. He worked well since raced, is drawn out­side, and on speed fig­ures fast enough based on his first two starts. RIGHT HAND

MAN broke slowly both starts on turf at Del Mar, but fin­ished okay both times. He switches sur­faces, gets a new rider, and could get a good trip in the sec­ond flight. ARTISTOCRATIC set a fast pace and weak­ened 10 days ago; he adds more speed.

SEV­ENTH RACE

Three in a row for MA­JES­TIC DE­SIGN? She won both starts since drop­ping to the bot­tom and switch­ing to dirt, in­clud­ing a de­ci­sive vic­tory last month in a N2L. She has tac­ti­cal speed, won a maiden-claim­ing route on this track by 10 lengths in July, and looks rel­a­tively solid in this re­stricted $16k claim­ing mile. Trainer Richard Bal­tas is 7-for-9 with dirt-route fa­vorites the past six months. MID­NIGHT LILLY fin­ished sec­ond to the top choice, then missed by a neck last time while fin­ish­ing more than three clear of third. She was claimed, the claim was voided. ‘LILLY will rally from be­hind. SHE BE­GAN AGAIN looms a live long­shot, claimed for $6,250 from a run­ner-up fin­ish on syn­thetic and re­turn­ing to dirt. She is 3-for-6 on con­ven­tional foot­ing, and should be po­si­tioned close to the pace. BRIDAL ARCH has speed, is in light with a five-pound ap­pren­tice rider and runs for a sta­ble that that does very well first start off the claim.

EIGHTH RACE

YA GOTTA WANNA, com­pro­mised by a tough trip while fin­ish­ing sec­ond in the G2 Del Mar Hand­i­cap last out, can win this $100k stake if he trans­fers his turf form to dirt. He im­proved sig­nif­i­cantly since be­ing gelded prior to his Feb. 16 maiden win. He won three in a row, fin­ished un­placed in two al­lowance races, then ran the race of his ca­reer last out in the G2 marathon. ‘WANNA took up twice on the far turn, was vir­tu­ally stopped the sec­ond time, wheeled out­side for the drive, fin­ished with a rush and gal­loped out in front of the field. It was a su­per run­ner-up ef­fort, bet­ter than it looks on pa­per. (Re­play video worth watch­ing: DMR, Aug. 18, race 6). If he avoids trouble this time, and han­dles the main track, ‘WANNA should win this $100k mile-and-a-quar­ter stake. He will have to catch pace­set­ter LIT­TLE SCOTTY, who is proven on dirt and proven at this trip. The last time he raced a mile and one quar­ter on dirt he won by seven lengths. A front-run­ner that can carry his speed, ‘SCOTTY could get brave. DAB­STER won a four-horse stakes race last time af­ter set­ting a fast pace. He could get a good trip po­si­tioned right be­hind the speed. COLONIST will rally late; GI­ANT IN­FLU­ENCE oc­ca­sion­ally posts a big num­ber, but a mile and a quar­ter might be a long way for him.

NINTH RACE

Tough in­side post for TUS­CANY BEAUTY; the rail was 1-for-30 in sprints the first week and a half of this meet. But she gets the call not­with­stand­ing the draw. Both starts on this track in sum­mer were solid (win, sec­ond), she was claimed last out by a win­ning sta­ble. PRINCESS ARENI dropped in class and re­turned to form 10 days ago with a game vic­tory by a neck. The run­ner-up fin­ished five lengths clear of third. Ob­vi­ous threat right back. SMART RACHEL du­eled and cracked to fin­ish fourth last out as the fa­vorite; her maiden win on this track three starts back puts her in the hunt. LADY KR­ISHNA drops from al­lowance with speed to make her pres­ence felt, while LOVELY LINDA seeks her sec­ond win of the meet. CHRISTY JACK­SON will rally late. Tough race, many con­tenders.

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