Four early opinions entering final round of BC prep races

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Six weeks out from the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, and the makeup of the races feels like the framework of a new home under construction. It can be visualized to completion, though much can still change in the month and a half to come.

With final preps still to be run mostly within the next couple of weeks, this handicapper is not lacking in opinions. In fact, here are four of them:

Opinion No. 1: Diversify is shaping up as a play-against in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, even if he rolls in next week’s Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Although Diversify has been a dominant horse in New York this summer, the change in venue to Churchill Downs could prove his undoing.

He ran fourth at 7-5 odds in the Clark Handicap over the Churchill Downs track last year, and that field, even for a Grade 1, was not anywhere near on par with a Breeders’ Cup Classic. That leads me to believe that Diversify’s style of going fast early and running his rivals ragged with a demanding tempo is not as effective at Churchill as it seems to be elsewhere.

Opinion No. 2: The Sept. 30 Miss Grillo at Belmont could prove the key race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. That would be nothing new since two of the last four Juvenile Fillies Turf winners won the Miss Grillo (New Money Honey in 2016 and Lady Eli in 2014).

The strength of the Miss Grillo seems in part due to its location in New York, where trainer Chad Brown is based. As a result, some of his top young fillies regularly start in the race, although others go out of town, which was the case last year when Rushing Fall ventured to Keeneland to win the Grade 3 Jessamine before winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar.

This year, Brown is again loaded with talented 2-yearold fillies, of which Newspaperofrecord could be the most promising. She scored on debut at Saratoga on Aug. 19, and Brown has since worked her in company with Uni, an older stakes winner.

As promising as Newspaperofrecord looks, Miss Technicality appears equally as talented. Trained by Christophe Clement, she won the $400,000 Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 1 in a jog to push her record to 2 for 2.

Opinion No. 3: If World of Trouble makes the Turf Sprint field, he warrants a long look. That is no certainty, however, as he would need to be chosen to compete by the Breeders’ Cup Selection Committee.

Although undeniably quick, and perfect in two turf sprints, World of Trouble has yet to win a graded stakes race on any surface, or face older horses. Regardless, he sure has looked sharp, particularly on grass, winning the Quick Call at Saratoga on yielding ground Aug. 8 and the Allied Forces over “good” turf at Belmont a month later.

That ability to handle some give in the ground could give him the edge at Churchill Downs, where in the fall there is always a strong possibility of catching a course with some cut in the turf.

Bound for Nowhere also has run well over soft turf. Whether he goes in the Turf Sprint or the Mile remains to be seen. He is under consideration for the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland next month, and how he fares will go a long way toward determining which Breeders’ Cup race he is entered in by trainer Wesley Ward. Although he won the Tourist Mile, I view him as a superior grass sprinter.

Opinion No. 4: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is shaping up ripe for a closer since so many of the major races for young fillies this summer and early fall unfolded with fast early fractions followed by slow closing ones.

This was most apparent in the Del Mar Debutante, where Bellafina chased quick splits of 21.93 seconds and 44.68 before taking command but weakening vs. the clock. Her final time was slow, seven furlongs in 1:25.51, capped by a final eighth of a mile in 14.75.

In light of her speedy style, as well as that of Serengeti Empress, the Win and You’re In winner of last week’s Pocahontas at Churchill, I will be examining the final round of preps for the Juvenile Fillies for a prospect who can finish well.

This year’s race looks like it might unfold as the Juvenile Fillies did last year, when 17-1 outsider Caledonia Road rallied to victory, one race after closing to be second in the Frizette.