Smiling Causeway no sure thing

Smiling Causeway would be happier if the $100,000 Sensible Lady Turf Dash at Laurel on Saturday were contested at a distance shorter than six furlongs.

Smiling Causeway has four wins from six starts in turf sprints at 5 ½ furlongs or shorter, and one of her losses at that sort of trip came Sept. 3, when she faced a salty group of males in the Grade 3 Turf Monster at Parx Racing. In her two starts at six furlongs, Smiling Causeway has led at the stretch all only to be run down before the finish, a sign that she does not quite see out the distance and a hint that she could be a vulnerable 9-5 morning-line favorite Saturday.

Smiling Causeway is part of an overflow field in the Sensible Lady, which lured the top three finishers from the race’s 2017 edition – Always Thinking, Fire Key, and Rocky Policy. Always Thinking can contend and gets a pass for a recent subpar showing in a race rained off turf, but Fire Key has an entire season’s worth of excuses coming into the Sensible Lady and is worth a play at anything like her 15-1 morning-line odds. Even when she finished second in this race a year ago Fire Key didn’t get the best trip, moving slightly early into a strong pace.

A case also can be made for Compelled, who has been working at Fair Hill for trainer Tom Proctor preparing for her first start since the two-turn Osunitas Stakes two months ago at Del Mar.

Tombelaine could land Dash

Tombelaine was claimed three starts and four months ago for $62,500 yet looks like he can win the $100,000 Laurel Dash.

Tombelaine, trained by Robertino Diodoro, won a Belmont turf allowance race in June his first start after being claimed. That race was at six furlongs, same as the Laurel Dash, and probably of comparable quality. Tombelaine clearly struggled over soft turf in the Aug. 5 Troy Stakes at Saratoga and if he gets firmer going can win the Laurel Dash from just off the pace.

Also entered in the full field are the one-two finishers from the 2017 Laurel Dash, Snowday and Class and Cash, but both Tombelaine and Dubini look a little better coming into Saturday’s race. The best race of Dubini’s career came last fall at Aqueduct in the Turf Sprint Championship, one of only two starts he has made at a distance as far as the Laurel Dash’s six furlongs.

Elsa has edge in Selima

Elsa could only finish third behind Stillwater Cove and Chelsea Cloisters last month in the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga, but there is no one of that quality in the $100,000 Selima Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the turf on Saturday at Laurel.

Elsa, owned by Godolphin and trained by Mike Stidham, already has a Laurel turf win, an easy debut score going 5 ½ furlongs in July, and since Stidham believes that distance is short of Elsa’s best, and that the Animal Kingdom filly will eventually turn into a route horse, the six furlongs of the Selima should pose no problem. Elsa breaks from post 6 under Sheldon Russell, should have ample pace to chase, and is a formidable favorite.

The Selima, race 11, is the last of seven stakes on the card, and another 2-year-old turf dash, the Laurel Futurity, provides the other stakes bookend as race 4. This full field is very difficult to parse, with a narrow edge going to Market Bubble. Trained at Colts Neck Stable by Alan Goldberg for owner Richard Santulli, Market Bubble won a New York-bred maiden turf sprint at Belmont in his lone start, but he ran down a loose leader with an encouraging, sustained move.