ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SMALL BEAR FIRST RACE

JUNKANOO one of two debuting for Chad Brown, who has been strong with 2yos making their first start on turf at Belmont over the past few years (15 for 56, 27%, $3.96 ROI). JUNKANOO is a half to four turf winners from this dam, who posted both career wins on grass herself. SEISMIC WAVE a Juddmonte homebred and a brother to five winners from his dam, who was Group 1-placed on turf in France; Mott doesn’t crank them up right away but he has a solid ROI of $2.60 with 2yos debuting in turf routes over the past five years. THE OTHER KESSLER is out of a mare who was a Grade 3 winner on turf and he is a half-brother to Mr Gruff, who excelled down the hill at Santa Anita winning several stakes on that course; goes long first time out. WAR DETONATOR, the other Chad Brown firster, is by War Front but has more of a dirt pedigree on the bottom as his dam was a stakes winner routing on dirt and his second dam is Grade 1 dirt winner Wild Spirit.

SECOND RACE

SMALL BEAR has concentrated on turf for the past year while in the Englehart barn but he has very good dirt form for this trainer prior to switching over and he raced on late last time behind a streaking Aztec Sense, who has won 8 of his last 9 races for Jorge Navarro; like his back on this surface and this distance is not too short for him. OUTPLAY looked good winning his seasonal debut sprinting at Gulfstream and has an excuse for his next start, but thought it was a bad sign that Pletcher elected to send him long in the Brooklyn, and he did not run well in a weak-looking Alydar most recently; in a spot where his early speed could hand him an advantage if he can regroup. EXULTING has been in good form this year since starting back from the layoff and he may appreciate this cut back in distance despite winning around two-turns last time over a track that was playing to his outside, closing style; has enough positional speed to avoid getting outrun early if he breaks, which has been a problem for him in the past.

THIRD RACE

RHODE ISLAND stretched to this distance last time at Saratoga and kept close to a solid pace before getting to a short lead in the stretch, before getting run down by a closer; may not have to run much better than that against this field. MINI P may be the right new face to this bunch and appreciate the fact that he is lightly-raced upon arrival from Europe; was a huge price when just missing in his debut but that was a race that featured a strong pace and he took dead aim on that winner in the stretch before failing to get by. COURSE CORRECTION was favored over RHODE ISLAND in that race over course and distance back in May and got a rail run in the stretch to maybe put a head in front, before getting outfinished; was defeated as the favorite again last time, though he was taken back in that spot and couldn’t get to a winner who had the jump.

FOURTH RACE

UNI has been sparingly raced so far as a 4yo but she has seemed to really appreciate these shorter distances and has been impressive winning both of those starts, especially that last one when having to settle back in last after hitting the gate at the start, before coming with a strong wide run to close things down; facing better in this spot but she held her own vs. the top 3yos last year and the horse she ran down last time was no slouch in France. DREAM AWHILE hasn’t been tried in the better races by trainer who has plenty to choose from but she has run well in all five starts since arriving stateside; easy win two back vs. weaker and she really does seem to be at her best over these shorter distances. HAWKSMOOR may appreciate getting what could be significant class relief in this spot especially as she lands in a race where her early speed could hand her an added advan-

tage, but her form so far this year has not been up to the level she was holding last year, despite what her two most recent figures may suggest; she’s the horse to beat in a lot of ways but not sure that I trust her, even with the apparent advantages. TOGA gave way readily in the stretch and earned a Beyer of 9 when all was said and done, but only after being sent from the rail into an early duel for the lead over a track that was playing to outside closers all day before the rain came leading up to the Whitney; moves outside and adds blinkers off the claim for a dangerous trainer looking to improve off a run that may be a bit better than it looks. CROSS MULTIPLY has run well enough to win this in each of his last two dirt starts and may have been best last time after making the first move to challenge the leaders, and only getting run down late by a closer after making the lead. MY MR. WONDERFUL contested that pace ahead of CROSS MULTIPLY last time, and while he had trouble putting away a pair of longshots who were up there with him, he raced on through the stretch to save 3rd; has some speed and fits well here.

SIXTH RACE

BOW TIE AFFAIR never got involved last time behind a couple of these but those shorter sprints at Saratoga don’t suit him all that well and he may not have appreciated the cut in the ground, either; has back races that give him a chance in here at a price as he gets more ground to work with. POSHSKY has posted a couple of wins on dirt since arriving from California last year, including an easy victory last time in a race rained off the grass; hasn’t spent much time on turf over here but his form on this surface may actually be better than his dirt form. BLACKJACK BABY four turf wins came in succession early last year over five furlongs; figures to struggle with this distance but he made a nice run for 2nd behind a sharp frontrunning winner two back (95 Beyer for Weather Report) and landed in a pace-dominated race last time.

SEVENTH RACE

TIMBER GHOST didn’t run that well in his first two starts earlier this year, though he had excuses in those races, and then went to the sidelines; returned from the layoff at Saratoga and crushed maidens in fast time and steps into face other winners in a race without much other speed for him to deal with early. WINE NOT has run well in each of his last two starts while facing better and he was contesting the pace over a distance that does not suit him at all last time; has been in the best form of his career since starting back off the layoff this year, even though he doesn’t have a win to show for it, and he is going to appreciate this cut back in distance. CERRETALTO has enough early speed to keep this pace in range and can do better making his second start back after missing time following his top figure win two starts back at Aqueduct.

EIGHTH RACE

NO DOZING earned a new top figure in his first start as a 4yo and first as a new gelding at Saratoga, and while I didn’t love that race overall he did back that performance up well with a much tougher trip in the Grade 1 Forego last time; can get the oneturn mile in Grade 2 Kelso that did not come up all that strong. PATTERNRECOGNITION making his stakes debut as a 5yo with figures that suggest he fits with this field; can be considered unlucky to have been bumping into some strong horses while trying to break through his 1x condition last year, though he wasn’t really able to threaten in those spots, and not sure that he beat the greatest field in the world last time, even though that race came back pretty fast; can use him if he’s a price, mostly because I don’t have much confidence in anyone else. BATTLE OF MIDWAY back at his best distance as he tries to restart his career following a brief retirement; won’t be too hard on his for his O’Brien effort, even though he didn’t do much running there and it is at least somewhat interesting that he ships over for this race.

NINTH RACE

ROMANTIC BABE was impressive winner her career debut last summer before trying a stakes race and then hitting the sidelines; hasn’t run as well since returning to the races, though her first start back wasn’t terrible and she faced much better in a race that was dominated up front in her only other turf start; drops looking to step it up. FOREVER DAISY had a tough trip in her turf debut as a 2yo and then just missed in her next start after making a wide run to challenge; has only managed to get four starts on turf so far this year, and only one of those over firm ground, which may help her out as she drops in class for the first time. SWEET AUGUST LADY is getting some needed class relief after failing to impact some better horses in her first two starts this year; logical but holds no significant edge at what is likely to be a short price.

TENTH RACE

MY VICTORIA ROSE dropping way down in class after facing much better horses in her two turf starts over the summer, and she may really appreciate getting this cut back in distance after failing to go long last time; likely won’t have to improve much upon that turf debut to make herself tough in this spot. PAZ THE WINE has had her chances and has continually come up short, but she did have significant trouble in the stretch off the layoff; forget that last one rained off the turf. UNPARALLELED showed speed vs. better early on and can benefit fro ma return to those tactics in this field; made a run to contention at this level last time before proving to be no match for a strong winner in the stretch.