ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, ELSA

FIRST RACE

All the value is likely gone now on REILTIN OIR, who was a good price her last two starts, both competitive runs. Didn’t seem to quite stay the two turns last time and let’s keep in mind before diving too hard at a short price that she couldn’t quite get up at this sprint trip two back in a race at this level. LUNETTA, considering her trip and her lack of experience, did pretty well to finish 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner in a race just like this one last out. BALTIMORE BABE stuck way out on the AE list and is on a suspect drop with lack of recent solid work pattern while coming back from a layoff. Fact she gets a mention for third suggests this field has little depth.

SECOND RACE

Homebred ROSURI gets blinkers (after running green) and a very reasonable move to $25K maiden-claiming after a one-paced but not terrible debut at Timonium. Standard second-start improvement plus whatever benefit the hood might bring should give her as good a chance as any in a tough-to-figure field of 2yos. BREAK DANCIN broke from an inside post in debut and only start, dueled and faded. Given a bit of time, has a better draw, and like the hints from that recent half-mile drill. CATERINA ONE might not have cared for slop last out and should benefit from cutting back a half-furlong this start.

THIRD RACE

Even at a short-ish price (depending on how Polar Jet is played) I can’t find a lot of good reason to strictly oppose JARETH. Drawn wide, raced wide in a longer sprint last out at WO but his two previous races, both at this trip over the LRL course, were plenty good to win this. Should tuck into first flight behind quite a bit of pace and finish these off. POLAR JET is the pick for dirt but has never been on turf and has no obvious strong grass influences in pedigree (dam only started twice, both on dirt; second dam was about the same on turf and dirt). OLDIES BUT GOODIES is an interesting case. On the fringe of being “fast enough.” Front-running tactics in every race except his lone turf try. Did he fall back there because he wasn’t really getting hold of the grass? Or is he going to be more versatile as a turf horse? The latter might lead to a decent trip here.

FOURTH RACE

MARKET BUBBLE stretched out pretty nicely to run down a leader who had several lengths on him a furlong out. $280K 2yo auction buy has gotten plenty of time to recover and continue moving forward. ORDER AND LAW had a rough go from the rail in career debut, then nearly won a fast Parx maiden race (far clear of third-place finisher) despite a stumbling start. On pedigree this 6f grass race should really suit. VETERANS BEACH shouldn’t mind the added half-furlong here but did save all the ground while getting through on the fence when he needed to in SAR debut win over NY-bred MSWs. Was fairly hard ridden in stretch, as well.

FIFTH RACE

TOP CZAR is the sort of short-priced favorite (class dropping in a way suggesting there’s as much intent in losing the horse as winning the race) usually worth standing against, but this $25K maiden-claimer looks unusually soft. Even just holding his recent form probably would suffice in this group. RELENTLESS LION makes second start with a decent chance to improve but would need to make serious progress to threaten the top pick if T Czar comes close to his apparent baseline. PLEASANT LEE shows $1.5K purchase price and debuts for $25K but has a work pattern riddled with holes.

SIXTH RACE

LIFT UP had little chance to win last out at MTH after falling as far behind a slow opening quartermile as she did. Think she has more positional pace than that and she has finished off some of her turf races (the first five of which produced wins) with an eye-catching turn of foot. ESQUISSE looked like she couldn’t lose a recent LRL allowance prep for the All Along. Blinkers on to try and turn her around, and her early-season form is perfectly adequate for this spot. STORMY VICTORIA clearly “classes up” with this sort of competition but the experiment here is trying her in a longer race. Fresh, at least, making first start since a sub-par run in Intercontinental.

SEVENTH RACE

Don’t think TOMBELAINE wanted any part of the soft turf in a SAR sprint stakes last out that in any case was short of his best trip. This 6f distance really suits and he’s gotten in three recent works for the Laurel Dash. Connections that claimed him for $62.5K three back still valuing his stock enough to persist in stakes. He could land a favorable stalking trip at a fair price. DUBINI probably did benefit from the race flow but his fine second last fall at AQU in his lone previous try out as far as this 6f distance probably wasn’t a fluke. 5.5f seems just a shade short. We’ll overlook the very light work pattern here. CLASS AND CASH has been running routes since he was a close second in the 2016 edition of the LRL Dash. Front-runner going long seemed to have no trouble adapting to a stalk-and-pounce trip and appears to be in comparable form.

EIGHTH RACE

HELLO DON JULIO never has won a stakes race but has a great chance to get his first one here in the Laurel Turf Cup. Only start beyond 11 furlongs came with he tried the 12f Pan American in just the second race of his career, and think his longdistance pace might prove even more effective at this trip. No value, however. POSTULATION went badly off form in his two most recent starts, and it came somewhat out of the blue. No clue how he responds to the barn change since previous outfit has an even more bucolic setting than Fair Hill and his day-to-day will have been considerably altered. Do know that his best 12-furlong form is a solid fit with this field if he can get back to it. RENOWN won this race two years ago and while he didn’t pick up two back in the Cape Henlopen he took a nice step back to his better form last out at Saratoga and might build off that performance. Sire’s get seem to hold their form into advanced racing age.

NINTH RACE

This is an interesting race. FIRE KEY is going to get overlooked in the wagering and will side with her among what I thought were four win chances (Always Thinking is the one that didn’t make the top three) at a price. So far 2018 has been something of a lost season but her best form last year came late in the year anyway. She probably “needed” that comeback run four back, floundered on soft turf three back, rained onto dirt two back, and “brush fallen foe” last time. Even when second in this race last year, she probably was moved too early into a hot pace. COMPELLED’s handful of turf sprint tries have been quite good and she ought to have a chance to get up at this 6f trip. On the other end of things, SMILING CAUSEWAY would very much be the most likely winner were this at 5.5 furlongs but the evidence at hand says she gets a little late going 6f.

TENTH RACE

SWITZERLAND was in a rough spot when he drew the rail in the G1 Vanderbilt, and he broke just slowly enough to rush into a heated duel that wound up totally enervating him. Well, he’s got the rail again in the De Francis but there’s less highquality speed in this field than last time and with an alert beginning he can lead all the way back at a better level. ALWAYS SUNSHINE is on about the third form peak of a very successful career. On the one hand he might get a better trip here than the top pick, but on the other he’s coming back off one of the fastest races of his career and now is into the fifth start of his form cycle. MR. CROW at this point doesn’t seem to be getting back to that sizzling two-race peak from the summer of 2017 but he does stand a decent chance of running better than he did behind Always Sunshine last out at Saratoga.

ELEVENTH RACE

ELSA aced her debut over this course and ran into a tougher bunch at Saratoga last out, holding her own, than she meets here in the Selima. If she breaks and avoids trouble she should get a fine trip tracking a strong pace. MONKEYS UNCLE debuted with a two-turn turf win Aug. 30 at Delaware but showed some pace there and might well be able to at least keep in touch with the leaders cutting back

to a sprint here. ANDARTA a solid enough secondout MSW winner last time at SAR but appears to be a confirmed front-runner at this point and if that’s the case she’s in for a potentially demanding trip from rail.

TWELFTH RACE

SUNMAN lost his debut chance at the break but ran on encouragingly at Timonium in a manner suggesting this longer 6f distance will really help. That said, the number of gate drills on his workout line suggest starting issues could persist. MOUTH OF THE SOUTH stumbled in his debut and then appeared to run too freely second time out at TIM. Might find a balance here third time out and back on the larger oval. THREE PHASE clearly has had his chances and the longer trip probably does him no favors.

THIRTEENTH RACE

H Smith barn sends RIDGEMONT HIGH out against main contender LONELY DRIFTER, who was claimed from the outfit last time. Ridgemont hasn’t had many fast times yet but the two-turn comeback two back probably was needed and the 6f sprint last time, short of his best, might have been a bridge to this one-turn mile against lesser foes. LONELY DRIFTER has only sprinted but does, on running style and pedigree, seem like he might not mind a mile. MOXIE didn’t run to form in the slop last time but the overall landscape doesn’t look as encouraging as the superior speed figures out of his starts two and three back.