ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, NINETY NINE PROOF

FIRST RACE

On closing day of the Los Alamitos fall meet, trainer Hector Palma holds the aces in the Cal-bred maiden opener. Palma entered debut runner-up SATRAPA and comebacker BLESS HIS HEART. The call goes to the horse with recent form. SATRAPA ran well in his debut last month. Bet to 2.30-1, he rallied wide, finished with run and missed by only a head. A similar effort would make him tough to beat, though stablemate BLESS HIS HEART showed ability two starts in spring. He finished third in his debut, and fifth after a slow start second out. He was gelded since, posted a bullet half-mile work early this week and looks “live” first time back. The 12-start maiden BLACK STORM looms the upset candidate, because he has speed. The pace scenario in this sprint is murky; ‘STORM has a longshot chance to steal it.

SECOND RACE

HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA returns from a two-month break, and drops in class from open $5k claiming to $6,250 claiming non-winners this year. Her best race is simply faster than her modest rivals in this five-furlong dash. The knock is she has only one published work since her most recent start in July. FAMILY RULES ran well all three starts since returning from a layoff of nearly five months; she finished in the money all three. Five furlongs might be farther than she prefers, but this field did not come up that tough. SCATHING last out finished in front of three rivals she meets again here. She was claimed from the fourth-place finish, she gets promising apprentice Heriberto Figueroa, and ran races in early summer that put her in the hunt. BLOOMING HANNAH set the pace into the lane and did not tire until the eighth pole in a solid comeback two weeks ago. With a race under her belt, she could stretch her speed farther.

THIRD RACE

I’LL WRAP IT UP returns from a two and one-half month layoff necessitated by a spill here in early July. He is the “best horse” in the field, with the top figures. However, he has a history of running below pari-mutuel expectations. He lost the last six times he was favored, and is 1-for-9 as the favorite in his career. TIZ LOVE had a tough trip finishing ninth in his return from a two-month break. He is a 5-for-15 pro facing an easier field this time, with a rider switch to apprentice Figueroa. REVEREND AL finished a flat fourth one week ago in an open $6,250 claiming sprint; this restricted $8k claiming field is probably easier. NOVA ran races in June and July at Santa Anita and Del Mar that would be good enough to defeat this crew.

FOURTH RACE

This $32k claiming mile is a good spot to take a shot with sprint-to-route VERY VERY STELLA. His most recent start was a subpar effort at Del Mar, but his East Coast sprint form early this year is fast enough, and he can run long. He won five route races early in his career. ‘STELLA can win first off the claim by Dan Blacker. CROWN THE KITTEN is in good form. Two efforts in summer at Del Mar were decent (one win, one third); he finished an okay fourth on this track in a $25k claiming starter allowance last out. He will rally late. MUCHOS BESOS finished a length behind ‘KITTEN early last month; LA WAUN goes sprint to route as the likely pacesetter. If he is left alone out front, he could get brave at a price.

FIFTH RACE

The closing-day pick six (mandatory payout) starts here. CHRISISCOOKIN has been freshened two months, drops in class and has an outside post. He looms the one to beat with a frontrunning/pace-pressing trip. Another live mount for five-pound apprentice Figueroa. QUANTUM FORCE

disappointed at Ferndale, but his Los Al form in spring and summer was sharp. He is quick, and likely to set the pace. Come catch him. LOVE YOUR

LIFE finished second under similar conditions two weeks ago; he adds speed. ROCKIN MY MOJO will be running late in a race likely to unfold in favor of his closing style. BOURQUE goes route to sprint and also will be running late.

SIXTH RACE

GRAND MINISTER stretches out with two sprints under his belt including an improved fourth on this track two weeks ago. He should get a good trip pressing the pace likely to be set by the horse to his inside. That is WELLDIDYOUGETIT, also stretching out from sprints. He ran poorly last out, but his third-place finish two back in a maiden-20 at Del Mar makes him a potential wire-to-wire winner in his first route. SPEND IT is a 19-start maiden with five consecutive in-the-money finishes. He has no speed, but he will be clunking along late. Considering the top pair are unproven running long, this race could actually unfold in favor of the SPEND IT. An improved effort last out by VIOLENT AFFAIR puts him in the hunt. He adds blinkers and will keep the pace honest.

SEVENTH RACE

LUCKY STUDENT is likely to start at a short price as she drops from Cal-bred N1X to $8k claiming starter, and returns to her preferred surface (dirt). She faces a potentially compromising pace scenario, however. The field is loaded with speed. But the class of the field is the one to beat, as Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens seeks his first Los Alamitos win since 2015, when he rode Mor Spirit in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER is among the pace rivals for the top choice; ‘POWER wins more than her share. Since she was claimed by owner-trainer Rosemary Trela in summer 2017, she has won six of nine including a similar starter allowance here two weeks ago. KRISTIE’S HEART missed by a neck last out while finishing five lengths clear of third. Sharp mare in peak form moving up slightly in class and with a versatile running style that could lead to a comfortable in the clear just off the pace. ADIOS CALI is a must-use. She might be the only laterunner in this speed-filled lineup.

EIGHTH RACE

NINETY NINE PROOF is solid in this Cal-bred N1X/ optional claiming sprint. His fourth-place finish last out was not bad even though he was favored at 7-5; his dominating $16k claiming win two back would be fast enough. ‘PROOF goes first off the claim by Peter Miller, is drawn outside and figures for a perfect trip second behind the speed. When the leader falters, ‘PROOF will get first run. That assumes the pacesetter will falter. TOUGH BUT

NICE is expected to make the lead, and if left alone out front has a shot to steal it. Still think ‘PROOF will wear him down. KING ABNER finished an okay second last out in a similar state-bred allowance sprint; stakes-placed FIRE WHEN READY returns from an extended layoff; SHAYMIN goes route to sprint and will rally late.

NINTH RACE

This Cal-bred N1X is the filly-mare version of race 8, and it’s a good spot to take a shot at a potential overlay with PRINCESS KENDRA. Her recent form against low-level claiming company and low-level starter allowance company is solid, her speed figures compare favorably to this group. She can win from behind. Maybe. EMMY AND I prepped last month in a $40k claiming turf sprint; she drops in class and returns to dirt with speed to warrant a long look on the front end. WONDERFUL LIE may vie for favoritism as she returns from a short break and drops back into the state-bred ranks. She was claimed her last three starts; the claim was voided each time.

TENTH RACE

The Los Al meet ends with a maiden-20 sprint raffle. IRON CURTAIN has early gas, an outside post and speed figures in spring at Santa Anita that would be good enough for this. JOHNNY RAY, runner-up four of his last seven starts, ran well in his recent comeback on this track and is eligible to improve second start back. POWERFUL THIRST is a 14-start maiden with recent form that puts him in the hunt. That is a wrap for Los Al; Santa Anita opens on Friday.

4961 Katella Avenue, Los Alamitos, CA 90720 (714) 820-2800 Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,380 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16.77% ■ Exacta, Quinella: 24.02% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi-5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Late Pick 5, Pick 6: 25.02% ■ Early Pick 5: 14% ■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.