ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, LADY PANAME

FIRST RACE

BEAUTIFUL BUZZ gave way off a fast pace when bumped up in class off the claim last time; winning effort two back in her lone start for Rudy would make her tough here and her new trainer has some good numbers dropping in class like this (Gargan past five years, 50% claiming price drop, dirt: 9 for 30, 30%, $2.48 ROI, 3 for 5 in that sample second off the claim); should be going with speed from the inside. MAHABODHI TREE has back races vs. better horses that would make her very tough in this spot, and she also has some speed; returned from a long layoff to wire two-life claimers back in April but that wasn’t a fast race and she hasn’t managed to stay on the track since. LET THE-MOOSELOOSE interesting as the new face shipping in to make her NYRA debut for an excellent trainer; wasn’t impressive grinding on in her first start for Englehart but that race came off a layoff.

SECOND RACE

FRENCH EMPIRE was routed to dirt upon arrival in NY over the summer and ran a decent race early in the Saratoga meet, before returning, later on, to tire late; turf debut was a pretty good effort with a terrible ride and am happy to give her one more chance on this surface. MERGER ARBITRAGE returned from the layoff at Saratoga and settled for second after a good trip behind her entrymate in a race that was at least as strong as this one; only managed two races last year as a 3yo but she ran well enough in both of those to be considered the horse to beat here. ANNE DUPREE unlikely to have much more to offer at this point but she was in a couple of situations in Saratoga that didn’t have to suit her (a dirt route in the mud and a turf sprint); cut the pace and was no match for favored Competition of ideas off the claim last time and she looks set to be a forward factor once again.

THIRD RACE

BATTLE MIDWAY had some things go his way when dropping to win three starts back over this track, but he ran well that day to turn his form around after a couple of disappointing efforts, and his two starts since are easily forgivable over a distance that is too far for him; staying positive on him off the claim for dangerous connections in a race where I didn’t want anyone else. Have been doing some chasing of SIR BALLANTINE and perhaps am getting off at the wrong time as he cuts in half with the top last out figure by several lengths; have to use him but have been betting him at bigger prices and he is going to be short here. AWESOME THOUGHT just 1 for 6 since being claimed by Navarro with that win coming by a nose last time with a 77 Beyer; has run faster than that in the past and has some speed to put into play in this race as he returns to the level of the claim.

FOURTH RACE

KEEPSHERCOOL has some pedigree to fall back on as a half to several winners from this Grade 1-winning dam, including Grade 2 winner Penwith, though she is really supposed to be better with more distance than this; appears to be training forwardly into this first start and had certainly found the right kind of field. CHAMBER got bet hard for her debut at Saratoga but broke inward pretty badly at the start and then just raced evenly after working hard to get herself into contention vs. a field that, quite frankly, wasn;t that strong; well-bred filly can do better with that one behind her but not sure I’d take another short price on her. CAPTAIN LIVI the other interesting firster in this field going out for an underrated trainer, and one who is quite capable with first time starters; spotty work tab doesn’t inspire much confidence, and there isn’t much immediate pedigree as the first foal from her unraced dam, but her second dam was a multiple graded stakes winner sprinting on dirt.