ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, KRPAN

FIRST RACE

FLASHINTHEPANTS wasn’t beaten far after mounting a belated rally in each of her last two outings, and she has some speed to chase on this occasion. GEMINI edged out the top pick for second after leading the way in an identical spot a month ago. MEGALIN CANDY figures to hang on for a piece after a stalking trip under Simon Husbands, who’s been in the zone of late.

SECOND RACE

With the rail in lane 4, HATCH GATE raced quite wide all the way last time before landing on the edges in a NW3 OS allowance/$40K turf route. The flashy chestnut is cutting back to a sprint to compete with a tag for the first time in this $20K B contest. Front-runners CRAZY ABOUT JAZZ and SPARKLE SAMMY should be prominent throughout if the race remains on the grass. SAM’S CROSS is a prospect for the lower rungs of the exotics.

THIRD RACE

ZEPHAN is descending two notches to a new low from $32K, while moving out from a long sprint to try a two-turn distance on the Tapeta for the first time. The Stronach runner is bred for the task at hand, and should be a major player. Professional maiden STOP THE PARADE is returning from a layoff, and has run decently when fresh in the past. FRED’S CHAMP prevailed in a front-end battle before weakening to third against easier in his latest.

FOURTH RACE

ONE MOON is worth a flyer in her second start, as she changes surfaces from the Tapeta to turf, for which she’s bred on the sire’s side. She had worked okay prior to her dull debut. POST TO POST finished a close second in each of her last two starts against similar on the lawn. ORBORTUNISTIC is taking an important drop from maiden special company to race with a $40K tag. A hot Contreras has the call. SPELL is another dropper from the maiden special ranks.

FIFTH RACE

GIANT MINE got away slowly before finishing 10 lengths back in a fast $20K NW2 tilt in his first try outside the maiden ranks Sept. 3. He has an edge on this much easier $10K group Beyer-wise, and probably deserves top billing. SLAM ran hot and cold in his last few at this level on the main track. His outside post is a negative, but he could have a say in the outcome if he doesn’t have too wide a trip. O’KRAM was prominent in his last few at Fort Erie. Consider him for the bottom of intra-race bets, along with TRACK THAT ECHO.

SIXTH RACE

After setting a pressured early pace, I’LL TAKE THE GOLD opened up a clear lead in the stretch before getting caught by a well-meant Sam-Son Farm first-timer when switching to the turf three weeks ago. The stretchout from seven-eighths to a mile isn’t ideal, but the daughter of hot freshman sire Goldencents could break through in her second start with Lasix. HASTALAVISTABABY ran fourth in both of her starts in shorter Tapeta sprints in the summer. Her dam has dropped three grass winners, but her sire is turf negative. SISTER NOVA came from a stalking position to finish a lapped-on second at first asking in a Tapeta sprint. AUNT TILLIE could hit the ticket off a distant fourth behind the top pick in her turf debut.

SEVENTH RACE

Over a track that favored outside/closers, KRPAN saved ground in a stalking position before finishing two lengths back in fifth last time in the restricted Simcoe Stakes. He should have these $32K maidens within his sights. FIVE MORE

MINUTES finished on the edges in his two races vs. OS maiden special types, most recently going seven-eighths. TRULY ELITE has worked decently for a successful first-out trainer, but his sire is 0 for 15 with debuting juveniles. GRIMGRINNIN’ GHOST is a wild card while adding Lasix and changing surfaces for the drop from the maiden special ranks.

EIGHTH RACE

MO SPEED, a $500K Saratoga yearling purchase by the good debut/turf sire Uncle Mo, is a halfbrother to G2 Indiana Derby winner Neck ‘n Neck. Leading rider Da Silva has the mount on the fastworking Casse charge. HIT THE TICKET galloped out strongly after rallying for third when debuting in a six-furlong Tapeta sprint three weeks ago. He possesses some turf breeding, and his trainer has decent stats with maiden second-timers. INVENTING BLAME has worked extensively over the turf training course for the Hall-of-Famer Attfield. The Fipke homebred is by a successful turf sire, Blame, but neither of his dam’s two turf runners were victorious. CHANGE AT THE TOP is by North America’s perennial leading grass sire, Kitten’s Joy.

NINTH RACE

GLENCAIRN was in a NW3 OS/$40K claimer on the cancelled portion of last Friday’s card. The handsome chestnut is dropping to a new low in this $20K B event on the Tapeta, the surface over which he dropped a neck decision in his penultimate race. COURT BATTLE led all the way in an identical event Sept. 7, and remains eligible for this event because he’s a 3yo. He could get softened up in a speed duel this time. Former turf expert GREENFIELD placed in each of his last two Tapeta starts. CONQUEST ELIMINATR figures to have COURT BATTLE to deal with if he employs an aggressive approach.

TENTH RACE

AUNTIE KATHERINE finished a clear/close second when tagged for the first time in a $32K turf route Aug. 19. She’s worked twice in the interim, and is shortening up a little to a suitable distance in this seven-furlong tilt. CORKER was claimed from a runner-up finish last time in a key $12.5K event on the Tapeta. Her previous performance on the grass was solid, and she’s taking the blinkers off. BETH’S AURORA and PLACE THE BLAME are candidates for the lower rungs of the exotics.