ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, TAP TAP TAPAROO FIRST RACE

FIFTY won his first start off the claim while pairing up his top figure and has since made four starts vs. better to no avail; dropping back down to a level where he belongs in a race without a tom of other pace. RIDE ON FAITH was in good form for his prior trainer while running his race both sprinting and routing, but wasn’t entered right away when claimed and was no factor as an MTO in his first start for these connections; slight drop looking to rebound. TRULY A MOON SHOT often comes up short at the end but he is almost always around it and is clearly a nice fit at this level; has the speed to get forward from the start as he breaks from the outside post.

SECOND RACE

CHASINDAMONEY improved to turn away a stiff challenge on the lead in his final start as a 2yo, before getting run over late by an impressive debut winner, and he stepped up again in his 3yo debut while making a fast pace off the layoff; haven’t seen him since early June but he is tough in here if returning in form - unless one of the firsters can run. BIG ENGINE one of those and he has some pedigree for a dangerous trainer as a half to two turf winners from a dam who won multiple NY-bred stakes on the grass; Servis 7 for his last 24 with first time starters in turf sprints (29%, $2.66 ROI). LIGHT THE POSSE ran well first time out despite going a bit greenly while outrun early, then just forged on without threat to get up for 2nd behind a front-running winner last time; has some turf pedigree and this doesn’t look like the toughest MSW in the world.

THIRD RACE

DARK N CLOUDY was defeated at a short price in his Gulfstream debut back in June but he had all kinds of trouble there in a race that is easily excused, then returned at Saratoga to break slowly again before failing to class up with a solid field; like him moving outside as he drops in class for Pletcher, who has a good record with horses like this - past five years, MSW to MCL drop, dirt: 44 for 105, 42%, $2.24 ROI. THROW THE FADE has settled for 2nd in five of his eight starts to date, including that last one when dropped in class for the first time, though he did earn a solid figure there while chasing a front-running winner all the way; good fit here and he shouldn’t be compromised by dynamics. HOT SRIRACHA ran pretty well while contesting the pace in a race that went to closers two starts back, then shipped to Delaware and dueled again at a short price before getting outfinished; drops with speed but the Asmussen barn has struggled with horses like this in NY recently (past five years, MSW to MCL drop: 3 for 32, $0.83 ROI).

FOURTH RACE

TAP TAP TAPAROO made a highly promising debut sprinting on turf late last year while fanning wide and finishing up well for 2nd behind a talented runner, and she returned to form in her first turf sprint since to bury maidens at Saratoga last time; Tapit filly appears to have some ability and can win right back for her excellent trainer. ELOWEASEL finally came through with a long overdue win two starts back when given a perfect trip and she can be forgiven for that last one in a race that was wired over a hard-to-handle turf course; tends to pile up the excuses in her races, but many of them are legit and she is good when pulling the right trip. MRS. RAMONA G. didn’t beat the greatest field in the world when winning her debut but that was a solid effort for a first time starter while looking a little green, and she faced stakes company in her only other try sprinting on grass; eligible to improve as he starts back off the layoff to make what is essentially her 3yo debut.

MOBRIDGE fits well at this level having posted each of his last four wins for this $25k tag vs. NY-breds, and he likely would have had a fifth if not for drifting badly late with the lead two starts back and allowing the winner into the race; tough trip off the claim last time when taken back to last and staying in without getting a place to run in the stretch. WITH EXULTATION still hasn’t managed to get back to his good form from 2017 but he is getting closer after finishing gamely between horses late to prevail for 2nd behind CLOONTIA last time; major threat if he can take one more step in the right direction. CLOONTIA did not run well off the claim for Rudy three starts back, something that is not unexpected with his turf horses, but he turned it around to easily defeat several of these in his next start with a perfect trip; forget about that dirt race last time, he has plenty of back races that make the horse to beat here.

SIXTH RACE

With no one to trust in this maiden claimer for NY-breds will stab with BULL FEATHERS, who has faced a couple of tough fields to start her career; gave way without reaching contention behind a blowout winner when last seen, but she did get involved in some early bumping in that spot. ROYAL NATION had enough speed to keep up close to the pace in her debut but was quickly no match for the 1-2 finishers in that spot and tired out readily; adds blinkers for her second start as she takes the drop and Mott has done well in this situation in the past (past five years, MSW to MCL, dirt: 10 for 48, 21%, $3.00 ROI). B B MOLLY a firster in a field without much to hang on to and she is a half to two winners from this dam, who was a cheap claimer but posted all six career wins sprinting on dirt; Cannizzo just 3 for his last 83 with first time starters.

SEVENTH RACE

THREE PERFECTIONS dropping in class for his third start off the layoff and the drop is significant after facing the in-form Dr. Edgar in a pair of fast-paced races in his first two starts back; can land a more comfortable trip in this field and may just be better than these horses. POCKET PLAYER finished gamely for 2nd behind the surprising front-running winner at this level last time, and he just missed in another game try at Fair Grounds prior to the layoff; closer needs at least a little pace to develop in front of him. GOSILENTLY likely to be up close to the early pace in this spot and that is to his benefit, even though he has not exactly been one to take advantage of positive situations in the past; made his first two starts at this level only recently at Saratoga and caught faster paces both times.

EIGHTH RACE

SOUTHERN GAL has been shopping for a spot for a while now as she looks to get started as a 3yo. Is drawn out wide making her first start back from a long layoff but she ran well in both turf starts last year and she is well-bred and holding upside. LOVELY LA LA got buried by the best dirt horse in a race that was rained off at Saratoga last time but she showed some potential when dominating maidens in her lone turf start to date; mile shouldn’t be a problem for lightly-raced filly who has some pedigree. SPRING FOLLY has never really come forward after showing some early promise but she has been competitive at this level and figures to benefit from getting back around oneturn at Belmont for this. THEATERINTHEROUND improved to break her maiden off the layoff in her 4yo debut and she was the kind of horse her prior connections could afford to let go when dropped in for the price most recently, where she was a much-the-best winner after missing the break and coming wide to prevail; new trainer is excellent with new acquisitions overall and is 3-10 so far with turf routers off the claim, with a $7.77 ROI, and another runner in that sample finishing a close 2nd at nearly 7-1 odds.

NINTH RACE

MARQUET LEGACY a sister to several talented turf runners, most notably the Grade 1 winner Discreet Marquet, who made over $1 million for these connections a few years ago; Clement 21% with 2yos debuting in turf sprints in NY over the past five years, with a $2.87 ROI. MIKE’S GIRL got outrun to the lead over a strong inside track in a race rained off the turf last time, but he ran well two back in a race that came back over a full second faster than the other division of NY-bred maidens sprinting on turf on 8/16; owns good speed and has valuable experience as he gets back to turf. GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY a sister to five foals from this dam, all of them winners, and she is by an underrated sire in Midshipman; trainer does not win often with first time starters but like her pedigree more than some of the others. GALADRIEL’S LIGHT has plenty of pedigree on her side being from the family of West Coast and of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Caressing, which makes her debut in a turf sprint a bit puzzling; may be prepping for a trainer who excels with second time starters, but it would be no surprise to find her showing up with a run in this spot.