Keeneland 2017 charts tout runners from Indiana Grand

As a practice, before the start of a major race meet such as this month’s fall meet at Keeneland, it can prove rewarding to review charts from the year before. Often, something will jump out, illustrating a trend that might otherwise have been forgotten.

That is what I found as I sifted through the results from last fall’s meet at Keeneland. Although I had remembered some horses from Indiana Grand lighting up the toteboard last year, with Bucchero’s upset at 26-1 in the Woodford still in my memory, I was surprised to see how consistently well those horses performed throughout the meet.

In total, they accounted for 15 winners, well above average considering that they represented many fewer starters than those from Churchill Downs and Kentucky Downs, where the majority of horses running at Keeneland last competed.

A bet on each would have yielded a significant flat-bet profit thanks to Bucchero and three other winners at odds of 10-1 or higher. I counted 86 starters and a $2 ROI of $3.33 if one simply bet those blindly.

Of course, it is not easy to bet blindly, at least not for me. So, even knowing this history, when it came time to handicap the fourth race at Keeneland on Saturday, I could not talk myself into liking the two Indiana Grand invaders. One of them, Seven Nation Army, has hit the board only once, in the slop, while the other, Out of Hydeing, seems to prefer running on the lead but now is in a race in which others look quicker.

Going forward at Keeneland, particularly as the races become bluer collar in the weeks ahead, I suspect more Indiana Grand runners will be in action. So, I will hold out for others then.

Spa horses due to bounce back

Perhaps as eye-opening as the winning performances from Indiana Grand runners last year were the disappointing results of horses who came to Keeneland from Saratoga. Horses who last raced there accounted for only 11 winners, fewer than the total from Indiana, even though many were among the favorites.

They did better over the meet’s first week, with Finley’ s lucky charm and Free Drop Billy winning Breeders’ Cup-qualifying stakes, though the short odds of 4-5 and 3-2 on them mirrored the relatively light mutuel returns that were commonplace on horses from the Spa.

Forecasting this fall’s results, I would be surprised to see Saratoga horses continue to win so infrequently at Keeneland. Some of last year’s runners ran well without winning – as reflected by 17 runner-up finishes – suggesting that with some breaks, they might have had better numbers.

A deeper dive into prior fall meets at Keeneland revealed that they won 25 races there in 2015 and 21 in 2016, hinting that last year’s returns were out of character.

The past performances for the first two days of this meet also suggest as much. Many last-race starters from Saratoga look quite tough, with the high quality of racing at Keeneland over the meet’s first few days clearly suiting them.

Still, it is hard to foresee the kind of overlaid payoffs that might be delivered by a horse coming from a less prestigious track. Saratoga horses, by the nature of the high-profile meet they competed in – are hard to miss.

My Mertie looks live in race 2

Although I did not select any Indiana Grand runners Saturday at Keeneland, I do like an out-of-state invader in the second race: Illinois shipper My Mertie, the 4-1 third choice on the morning line. She raced on Polytrack for most of the summer at Arlington, where she won three races. I suspect she will offer a bit of value, with some bettors questioning her class as she comes from a seemingly softer circuit, as well as questioning her dirt ability.

Based on last year’s charts – when eight Arlington Park shippers won at Keeneland from a fairly limited sample, led by six on dirt – she is an appealing prospect. In addition, her record is attractive, showing four wins on dirt early in her career.

It was not until this summer that she even won a race on Polytrack, scoring in her eighth start on the surface. That could reflect that she simply got into a groove in terms of form and not that she had any kind of affinity for a synthetic track.

Drawn in a position to save ground under regular Arlington rider Carlos Marquez, she looks like a gamble worth taking.