ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, PARTY WITH FRIENDS

FIRST RACE

ELIAV went to Laurel to make his debut and lost all chance when missing the break by a couple of lengths; did well to catch up to that field and then raced on to be clearly second-best to a clearcut winner who earned a 65 Beyer and lands in a weak field back in NY to make his second start. Not unreasonable to guess with one of the firsters in this field based on what the experienced runners have done so far and both POLLO and LONE PIONEER have some things on offer. POLLO is from an unraced dam who is a sister to a couple of talented runners and she has dropped several winners already; Guillot 4 for his last 60 with first time starters, 7%, $0.94 ROI. LONE PIONEER brought $250k as a yearling and debuts for $40k, not a good sign under any circumstance but especially for these connections; dam couldn’t run at all but she is a sister to Bayern and her only foal to race so far is five-time turf winner Lion in Wait.

SECOND RACE

MUCHACHA UNO ran well in her turf debut three starts back while putting in a game late finish for second then moved up in class off the claim and closed down a race at Saratoga that set up well for her; forget that last one that was rained off. AMAZING AUDREY hadn’t done much wrong while coming up short vs. some better horses to start her career but she was dropped in class anyway at Saratoga and easily handled those weaker rivals with a perfect trip; may turn out to be a solid claim for a smart trainer and she is protected for this. CLASSIC LADY won her turf debut with a very good trip and ride into a fast pace then stepped way up in class for her next start and ran a much better race to get a piece after another good trip at a huge price; back to turf at the right level after failing to run over the main track last time.

THIRD RACE

CLYDE’S RUNNER put in a nice late run after trailing to the top of the stretch in his debut at this level, then stretched out for his next two starts and ran equally well in races that didn’t set up well for his style; puts himself up against it with his lack of speed but he is back at the right level and should have something to run at in this spot. FOOCH has shown speed in all five of his races to date, including that turf debut last time over a longer distance at Kentucky Downs; did his best there after getting early control but was just outfinished at the end, and he gets a class drop for this. GRANDMAS FAVORITE faced some much better horses in his first two starts without making a real impact then returned from the layoff at Saratoga and did no running in a race that was wired but an improved Fixed Point; drops as a new gelding.

FOURTH RACE

Realize that EMERALD QUALITY was in a different barn when breaking his maiden in lone start routing on dirt to date, but she won that race easily and comes back to the main track for the first time since in a field that requires some stretching to make a solid case for anyone. MISS LOYALTY defeated a very weak field over a wet track in slow time at Monmouth last time, but she did it easily while showing tractable speed and she is more lightly-raced than anyone in this spot. HEAVEN’S CREATION has the back races to bury this field but she did not run well when stretched out at Saratoga two back in an effort that was a clear step back from her form for her prior trainer, and she was even worse when cutting back for dangerous connections last time; needs to turn it around quickly.

FIFTH RACE

GOOD OLD BOY made three starts on turf late last year at the MSW level and actually ran well in the second of those while contesting the pace all the way before letting go late, and he had a tough go of it off the layoff when bumped back to last at the start before trying to rally along the rail in the

stretch; has to stretch it all the way out but has the right post and he showed the kind of speed that could make him dangerous here last year. PACKED

HOUSE is probably the right new face to this group as he takes the class drop as a new gelding; two turf races to date are both okay and he is lightlyraced where his competition is not. GOLCONDA one of several exiting the finale from September 16 at this level and he did well there to get 3rd at a big price after getting held up behind horses on the turn and then forced to come wide. LEMON BLITZ has hit the board in all three starts at this level so far and earned a new top figure when ahead of several of these last time, but he also got a very nice trip in that race and never looked like winning.

SIXTH RACE

Not sure about this cut back for REAL MONEY as he makes his second career start as a maiden in the Futurity, but liked his debut earlier in the meet when showing speed with his rider taking a hold and then picking up gamely when challenged early by the two favorites, and only conceding to them late; think there is something there with this wellbred 2yo, even if this turns out not to be quite the right spot. CREDIT SWAP got some help in his debut win from a pace-rival in that race who couldn’t keep straight and opened things up for him to just take the race over off the turn, but he put in an impressive stretch run to blow that field out late; well-bred colt is cross-entered in a stakes race at Keeneland on Sunday. SWAMP RAT was set up well in his debut by JOYFUL HEART on a fast pace and he came home strongly to close that rival down late; put in a similar good late run to get 2nd in the Skidmore in his second start and he rates to benefit from the expected pace on this race as he cuts back out of the With Anticipation.

SEVENTH RACE

COVFEFE debuted three weeks ago at Churchill and could hardly have been more impressive than she was while there while showing speed and holding on her own power until the stretch, and then airing on that field when asked just a bit; has to stretch out but has plenty of pedigree underneath her and puts this field in a tough spot if just backing that debut effort up. JAYWALK ran well in her career debut while no match for NONNA MADELINE then improved from that effort in her next two starts, particularly last time when finishing gamely to gun down odds-on Congrats Gal, who returned to win her next start by 14 lengths with a 79 Beyer (the 3rd and 4th finishers from that race also returned to win); facing to toughest distance stretch out of anyone here after making each of her first three starts at 5 or 5.5 furlongs. NONNA MADELINE impressed when easily running by JAYWALK first time out after some early trouble, then broke poorly in the Schuylerville and settled for secondbest to an impressive winner; contested the pace in a race that went to closers in the Spinaway, but she was outfinished by a big longshot who took the race to her in an effort that was disappointing overall.

EIGHTH RACE

ON THEM OON AGAIN hasn’t lived up to expectations in her first two starts over here but there are some excuses to be had as she was given a poor ride in the first of those while trying to force her way through a non-existent hole in the stretch and then rating behind slow fractions and trying a wide run to contention just as the pace was picking up last time; one more chance for filly who arrived from France with some credentials. FOURSTAR CROOK the horse to beat looking for her first Grade 1 following back to back 101 Beyer efforts in her last two starts; shows up every time and somehow keeps getting better. TRICKY ESCAPE facing a couple of better horses here after winning her last three starts with different running styles, but she is underrated and likes nd distance; don’t discount her at a price. LADY MONTDORE has been impressive winning her first two starts over here and she has the advantage of owning some fine tactical speed, which could give her the jump on her main rivals; sharp in victory last time but she has all the best of it there on an easy lead, which allowed her to sprint through the stretch.

NINTH RACE

PARTY WITH FRIENDS was put on the chase when left in to run on dirt at Saratoga and was no factor; bred to move up on this surface as a full-sister to Going to Kukaro, a stakes winner sprinting on turf. A THREAD OF BLUE cuts back a bit after making a move to challenge and settling for second-best in his turf debut last time; facing some interesting newcomers in this spot but his experience gives him an advantage. HIGHWAY FLYER out of a mare who was a group winner in Europe and a Grade 2 winner over here for these connections a few years back; Mott doesn’t usually crank them up but he is much better debuting on turf than he is on dirt. BAD BOY may want longer but he is a half to fivetime turf winner Shalako out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner on grass and his trainer is in the midst of a very good run right now; Abreu 6 for his last 26 with first time starters (23%, $3.60 ROI), but just 3 for 21 in that sample on turf.