ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, HONEY BUNNY

FIRST RACE

PORTAL was slow to come around this summer after a year’s stay on the sidelines, going unplaced in his first three comeback races before rallying to be third in his latest. Since that time, he fired a bullet work at Keeneland, further hinting he is cycling back into top form. He did show promise as a 3-year-old in the spring of 2017. DIG CHARLIE DIG seemed on his way to victory last out in a $50,000 N2L such as this one, taking command in midstretch after stalking the leaders, then was outgamed by a horse he had already passed. His win struggles are further reflected by his 16-1-6-4 record. SENOR JOBIM seems the best horse in the field, dropping in for tag for the first time, but is unlikely to offer any value. Also, the fact that he shows up for a claiming price - even after forgivable defeat in which he blew the break - is not a barn endorsement regarding a horse that was a $1.525 million yearling.

SECOND RACE

BIG DOLLAR BILL brings sharp form and class into this money allowance, having won the Birdstone this summer at Saratoga before a third in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at Parx Sept. 3. Those were dirt marathons and now he is cut back to 1 1/16 miles, but at Keeneland, where he is perfect in two starts, conditions look favorable for him to run well. PHAT MAN can run hot and cold, but is dangerous when he puts it all together. He defeated the top choice June 30 at Churchill, though with the luxury of an easy lead, and then faded under pressure in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup; might play more of a stalking role here with a couple stretch-out sprinters among the cast. GUEST SUITE hasn’t consistently produced since winning the Lecomte in 2017, though his latest, a third in the Schaefer Mile at Indiana Grand, was one of his better races over the past year or so. He is one of several with wins over the track. Late-running 2017 Lexington Stakes winner SENIOR INVESTMENT is another.

THIRD RACE

VICTORY CIGAR, coming off a pair of rear-half finishes, was not racing under ideal circumstances in those defeats, with one loss coming after he set a fast pace in a route and the other in a turf race at Kentucky Downs. Sprinting on dirt is what he does more effectively, as he showed by hitting the board on three occasions from May - July. D’AMBROSIO is the classiest and fastest maiden in this lineup, though a layoff dating back to Feb. 1 potentially puts him at a disadvantage. His connections seem to be cashing in their chips with this son of Tapit, who after being gelded, is now spotted in a maiden $30,000 claimer. SHACKLED failed to keep pace in a pair of races in March and April, beginning with a debut on dirt and then with a turf race here at Keeneland. He faced some bears in the latter contest, a race that was won by multiple stakes winner Raging Bull; bred to handle the dirt.

FOURTH RACE

HONEY BUNNY, claimed by trainer John Ortiz for $16,000 in April, won a sprint stake this summer at Prairie Meadows. A start later, she was second in another stake there to Golden Mischief, one of the favorites in the Saturday’s Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes. Though unplaced in her last two starts, one race came in the Grade 3 Groupie Doll and the other on turf in a Claiming Crown starter prep. This dirt starter is more suitable. Entrymate COUNCIL RULES also looms a threat, cutting back in distance after fading to third in off-the-turf route at Indiana Grand. She is untested going seven eighths - along with HONEY BUNNY - but ‘COUNCIL did win a six and a half-furlong race at Arlington this summer. MIZZEN AIR is four for nine this year, even performing well when she has lost, such as when second at Churchill Sept. 16. She is blessed with tactical speed and is a past winner at Keeneland, splashing home well in front in the slop during the spring meet.