ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MIDNIGHT TEA TIME

FIRST RACE

HIGH REGARD has twice run well in as many starts, first by running fourth to eventual Arlington Washington Lassie winner Into Trouble at Ellis Park and then by taking a maiden race over this mile trip at Churchill. That win at the trip - granted around one turn, not two - gives her the edge over ENJAY’S BRASS. The latter acts like a talented filly, one that broke her maiden over the heavy favorite last out at Laurel in her second race with a bit of a wide trip. Her most-recent 64 Beyer is competitive with the 66 ‘REGARD just posted, though it came going just 5 1/2 furlongs, not at a mile. WOVEN ran down her loose on the lead stablemate at Delaware last month, and though it was not a particularly fast race, it did come in a two-turn contest like this one.

SECOND RACE

ONLY LIQUOR looks like a wake-up candidate in the second, moving off the synthetic Polytrack surface at Arlington, where he struggled this summer. Take note he is 14 for 43 on dirt, compared to 1 for 8 on synthetic. RIFF RAFF is one of several in here that are aggressively spotted, plunging from $25,000 to $10,000 after being claimed for the former price at Saratoga. It wasn’t long ago that he was running for $40,000. Connections seem dissatisfied with him, but he’s in a winning barn that has hit at a 38% rate with its last 26 first-after-claim runners. PRIME ISSUE, coming off an optional claiming win at Belterra, acts like the most dangerous of the speed horses in a race that is relatively short of pace. He is 10 for 34 on dirt, a record that includes a win here in the spring.

THIRD RACE

MIDNIGHT TEA TIME goes second off the claim for trainer Joe Sharp following an encouraging second in a 1 1/2-mile race at Saratoga. He took the lead in midstretch after stalking the pace, but just could not stay with the winner, Winter Union. The latter returned with a near miss second in an allowance at Belmont, legitimizing the quality of that maiden race. ‘TIME looks capable of handling the cutback to 1 1/8 miles without issue. FRA MAURO has been fourth and third in two starts and being lightly raced, has development potential for trainer Brad Cox. PROMPT disappointed with a fourth as the favorite at Kentucky Downs after keeping tough company in New York. Trainer Bill Mott adds blinkers, looking for more from him.

FOURTH RACE

STEALING SUNSHINE did not run to strong support first out at Indiana Grand, finishing a distant third against straight maidens. Now she shows up for maiden $50,000 and with a race behind her, could be ready to move forward; winning trainer/jockey combo with Cox and Florent Geroux. SOUTH OF FRANCE looms the favorite after twice running second and once third in three dirt starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Her numbers are not all that fast, however. MUCHA MEZQUINA recorded a quick half-mile breeze over this track Oct. 3 after a debut fifth against maiden special weight opposition at Churchill. She had also trained swiftly this summer at Arlington.

FIFTH RACE

CIVIL UNION won her debut in slow time at Saratoga, though easy fractions contributed to that. It essentially turned the race into a quarter-mile sprint for home - and she passed that part of it nicely. She seemingly has plenty of upside, being a well-bred filly by War Front and with trainer Chad Brown in her corner. NAPIER overcame a troubled start to win her debut at Ellis Park for Cox, who also starts Euro invader PRINCESSCHOPE, on whom primary go-to rider Geroux lands. The latter has a history of minor awards, but gets class relief with the drop from stakes company. She also adds Lasix.

SIXTH RACE

Unraced since a third in the Tesio at Laurel in the spring, NOBLE COMMANDER seems geared up for his return in this second-level allowance at Keeneland. A speedy horse that won a Florida-bred stake at Tampa earlier in the year, he is training smartly in the lead up to this. BARRY LEE has been in the money in seven of nine starts and is another that should be prominent early. After a promis-

ing 2-year-old year in which he won the Arlington Washing Futurity, he seems to have plateaued a bit at age 3; perhaps a little better suited to races shorter than today’s seven eighths. HONORABLE

TREASURE is a tricky read, a horse coming off aa eye-catching score at Saratoga, but a runner whose races, by far, have at that track. He was fifth in his only start at Keeneland in the spring.

SEVENTH RACE

MY GAL BETTY was arguably the top Poly/turf based 2-year-old filly this summer at Woodbine, where she won the Catch A Glimpse and finished second in the Natalma to British raider La Pelosa. Yet to ship - so that is an unknown - but the talent is certainly there; must overcome a wide draw. FIERCE SCARLETT rolled by 4 1/2 lengths in a second-out maiden victory at Belmont, doing so for Chad Brown, who brought Rushing Fall here last fall off a Belmont maiden score to win this race and later the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The most likely winner, but probably overbet to some extent. ZALIA and PRINCESA CAROLINA are other promising maiden winners among the cast, with the former rolling at Kentucky Downs and the later winning a faster race but by a smaller margin at Saratoga.

EIGHTH RACE

Taking a stab with a price in the nightcap with HALLIE’S HERO, who due to limited dirt experience, seems likely to be overlooked. At least he is dropping in class into a claimer after running against straight maiden, stake, and allowance rivals. He was whipped recently at Churchill, though in a comeback race against far better allowance foes that was contested in the slop. TELETAP should benefit from a cutback in distance from a mile, and from being reunited with Ricardo Santana Jr., who was up for his only victory in 17 starts; lowest tag to date. HOUSE OF COMMONS is the fastest of these on Timeform pace figures, and won the lone occasion that he raced for a claiming price. He rates as the third pick due to looking a little suspect going this Beard Course distance of seven furlongs and 184 feet.