ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, INDEBTED

FIRST RACE

GIRL OF TOSCONOVA debuts over a difficult distance but does so while facing the right kind of field and for Rudy, who is 4 for his last 9 with first time starters in dirt routes (44%, $4.48 ROI), including 2 for 3 with maiden claimers; sire in underrated and the first five foals from this dam to race are all winners, including a full-sister to GIRL OF TOSCONOVA who posted all four of her career wins in dort routes. ROSE OF DUBLIN chased three wide last time to ultimately get a look at that race in the stretch, and she did her best before settling for 4th; stretches out on the drop. TROPICAL STORM EM a Scat Daddy homebred debuting for a tag for Pletcher, who has struggled with his 2yo first time starters dating back to the beginning of the Saratoga meet; dam was a talented runner for this owner but she posted all five career wins sprinting.

SECOND RACE

AVERY MAEVE dropped in class last time while looking for her first win in over two years and crushed restricted claimers with a new top figure; steps back up off the claim for Servis who is 12 for his last 20 (60%) off the claim with turf sprinters ($4.12 ROI). LA NATUREL didn’t fire hen last seen and got a little time off; had been racing in good form at this level prior to that effort, including a couple of runnerup efforts over this course where she finished ahead of AVERY MAEVE. FACTORING took a three-wide trip and proved to be no match for an in-form Glossy last time at Saratoga; has proven to be an effective turf sprinter from limited chances and her versatility gives her rider some options.

THIRD RACE

TELL ME MA debuted late last year and wound up contesting the pace inside of the talented Colonel Tom before getting left behind in the stretch, then made his only other start over a sloppy main track; returns for his 3yo debut as a gelding in a field where the main contenders have already had their chances. WILD WILLIAM has held his own in four starts at this level so far but he has lacked punch in the stretch and settled for minor awards; tactical speed gives him the chance to get first run on some of the closers but he still has to finish. CAUSFORCELEBRATION has hit the board in four of his five starts so far this year, all of them at this level; hasn’t really improved since running pretty well in his turf debut last year but he fits well in this field.

FOURTH RACE

CHUNNEL has spent much of his career on turf but he is a better horse on the main track and is 6 for 8 on fast dirt since joining this barn; was never that effective in NY in the past but he can turn that around in his current form. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING won an off-the-turf race vs. just three others when last at this level back in May and has since been laying down fast paces and failing to last vs. some better horses; drops back down with dangerous speed. TURCO BRAVO has been back in form since dropping in class recently and that improvement has coincided with some new-found positional speed; steps up with the back-class to handle it as he goes off the claim for the third time in his last four starts.

FIFTH RACE

WILLING TO SPEED didn’t do that much running in his debut but he was facing a strong field in that spot and he was racing on through the stretch while down on the rail; class drop helps colt who is drawn down inside, which has been the place to be lately on this turf course. COTTON HOUSE was no factor sprinting on turf in his debut behind a front-running who got control of an easy pace then seemed set to improve in his second career start on dirt considering his pedigree, but that didn’t happen; should handle the stretch out as he comes back to turf with a class drop for this, and he will also get Lasix for the first time. HONEY WON’T landed a nice trip in behind the pace and proved to be no match for a good field in his debut upstate;

another one taking a logical drop for this, though he is drawn to a tough outside post.

SIXTH RACE

CALL IT A TRUCE was MTO in her debut run last month and she did well to close into 2nd while racing wide over a track that featured a very strong rail on that day; chance to come forward quickly here off of that better-than-it-look debut. MIDNITESALRIGHT chased wide in her debut in what has turned out to be a very strong race and she was clearly second-best last time to a promising runner in More Mischief; may be the one to beat and she has some speed, which is always a plus in these races. SARATOGA STYLE has a nice pedigree being from the family of very good dirt horses like Guam Typhoon, Miss Isella, and Sir Cherokee; debuts for Pletcher, who has been struggling with his 2yo first time starters lately (past 90 days, 2yo first time starter: 4 for 48, 8%, $0.78 ROI, 1 for 38 on dirt in that sample with the lone winner coming via DQ in a race originally scheduled for turf).

SEVENTH RACE

CHRIS AND DAVE has been a little in-and-out lately, though he did face a tough group at Parx three back and he did stumble at the start last time before being eased off in the stretch, and his first two starts in NY were both solid efforts, especially that first one when surviving a competitive pace and just getting nailed late; chance to rebound once again in a race that doesn’t pack a ton of speed. WEATHER WIZ may have gotten a little lucky last time when holding on over the tripcompromised Plainsman but that made his 2 for 3 since starting back from a layoff, with the lone loss coming over a wet track; lands in a spot where his speed makes him tough. PAPA SHOT has not been in his best form recently, though he had little chance when wired over a sloppy track last time; has the back races to contend here if he can turn it around off the claim for Rudy, who has strong numbers in this situation - past five years, first off claim, dirt, route: 41 for 107, 38%, $2.54 ROI.

EIGHTH RACE

DIRTY has found himself as a turf sprinter and exits a couple of underrated tries in stakes company behind the fast and talented World of Trouble, first after breaking through the gate pre-start and then doing the hard work chasing that rival while threewide, and then last time when left with no chance as that one improved to a 103 Beyer; figures tough back down in class, assuming he holds form. BAM BAM BLU was impressive winning his turf debut under strong handling at Saratoga and he may have run even better last time while contesting the pace all the way and only falling to a closer late; dangerous for a trainer who keeps them going. COROT has more to prove than just about anyone in this field but he may be better than he looks and he rates to appreciate this cut back after tiring in a stakes race going longer last time; well-bred colt

NINTH RACE

INDEBTED ran well while challenging the pace in a race that went to closers over a difficult distance at Delaware prior to his return to NY, then had his first two starts rained off; landed in a tough race for the level at Saratoga last time and, while he had a good trip overall, he did get caught in behind the leaders in the stretch while trying to close ground. BOW TIE AFFAIR putting races together for the first time since posting a clear-cut win at Gulfstream back in April for his prior connections; fits well at this level with his good race and he did not have an easy trip last time when kept wide throughout. NATURAL ORDER won first off the claim for this trainer and then faced tougher in his next three starts under varying conditions; tried sprinting last time to no avail behind a dominant front-running winner who came back to score again last week.