ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

DON’T TELL LYDIA is dropped in for the lowest claiming price of her career and returned to her best distance of a mile, over which she has been second three times in four attempts; training swiftly at Churchill. HONEY ROSE has yet to hit the board in four starts, but three of those races came against straight maidens and another in a maiden $50,000 contest. She was fourth of seven in the latter contest, though still beaten over 10 lengths. Connections seek answers with the plunge to maiden $15,000 and by adding blinkers. Maiden special weight dropper MIZZEN COLONY, in good form in June and July, has not produced in three races since. Another that is adding blinkers, her principal appeal is her early speed.

SECOND RACE

FAITH HEALER ran well off a 10-plus month hiatus to be third at Churchill Sept. 23 against similar starter $40,000 foes - a comeback race that should advance her fitness and move her forward. She lacks speed, but that hasn’t stopped her from hitting the board in all four of her races; outran her odds when third at 22-1 over this track a year ago in a maiden race. MAHO BAY, on the other hand, disappointed when fifth last out Aug. 26, though it did come at Saratoga in a richer starter. A filly with tactical speed, she had previously been second there. PROPORTIONALITY owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 76, for running six furlongs in 1:09 and change recently at Belmont. Class is the uncertainty - she has been running in midlevel claimers restricted to 3-year-old fillies. That makes her difficult to evaluate, though no more so than likely pacesetter COURT ME WITH CA RATS, who racked up the wins at Parx in $7,500 - $12,500 claimers before fading to fifth in the Open Mind when ambitiously spotted last month at Churchill.

THIRD RACE

It seems to be anyone’s race in the third, a $16,000 claimer...so taking a shot with MORE ON TAP, who might be discounted by the betting public after racing on the grass at Indiana Grand over the summer. Indiana horses regularly proved danger- ous at prices here in the fall of 2016 - perhaps that trend will repeat. BOBBY THE BRAIN, another horse coming off races there, didn’t fire in his latest when in an optional claimer but has otherwise been right there in most of his dirt races this year. High-percentage owner/trainer tandem win frequently with claiming runners. DAPPER SAM certainly looks tough based off his latest - a close fifth for twice this tag, $32,000. The concern is the aggressive placement on a horse claimed for $40,000 in May that is still eligible to N3L claimers. That makes him look like claim bait.

FOURTH RACE

MORE LIKELY THAN NOT hasn’t run since December, when fifth, beaten a length, in her lone start. Normally reluctant to back a long-layoff type, but these types of comebackers tend to do better at Keeneland than elsewhere. Trainers tend not to give horses a race when running at a prestigious meet like this one. Speaking of trainers, this one has Chad Brown in her corner, his stats are gaudy, particularly on turf. COEXISTENCE and PETER’S KITTEN has been second in every one of their combined six grass races. COEXISTENCE is preferred of the two, having been a clear-cut runner-up in her latest, four lengths clear of the third-place finisher, white PETER’S KITTEN was only a nose in front of the third horse in her race.

FIFTH RACE

After going unplaced in three starts against straight maidens, MAJESTIC HERO should benefit from a class drop into a maiden $50,000 contest. He has run faster with each race and a recent eighth at Kentucky Downs - in which he chased

the favorite before retreating - suggests he has the speed for the cutback in distance to go three quarters. Slight edge. PANTHERUS LEO improved second out with a sixth in a field of 11 straight maiden runners, though he largely caught a group of first timers. That race earned him the race’s top Beyer, a 54. BILL’S MAFIA debuted with a second on synthetic at Woodbine for maiden $40,000, about $30,000 in U.S. funds. Pedigree and speedy running style hint he should adapt to dirt racing.

SIXTH RACE

LOVE SHACK BABY acts like one of the classiest fillies in this $20,000 N2L claimer, and is suited to the about 7-furlong distance. The great unknown is how she handles dirt, having raced on turf and Poly exclusively, but at least she shows an above-average dirt work here. She is by Shackleford, winner of the 2011 Preakness - so some dirt blood there. BRAYDENS START, wheeled back on less than a week’s rest after finishing a close seventh here on opening day, faces what seems an easier field. Though seventh, she ran pretty well in the latter race after being stuck behind horses in traffic without much daylight. She is accustomed to running 5 1/2 or 6 furlongs - far shorter than today’s Beard Course distance of 7 furlongs and 184 feet. DON’T STOP MARIA was bumped at both sides at the start of her last race at Churchill, recovered and rallied for second - though vs. cheaper. She made up nearly four lengths in the final furlong when the winner came home in a slow 13.81 seconds.

SEVENTH RACE

There is a threat of rain for the Lexington area on Wednesday and into Thursday morning...if by chance this race gets moved to the dirt, which doesn’t happen often at Keeneland, that would benefit DESSERT HONEYS, one of two main-trackonly entrants in this lineup. She had a promising 2-year-old campaign in 2017, and should benefit from a comeback race in the slop at Churchill when seventh with some trouble. On the other hand, if this race is run on wet turf, that favors BRIDALED TEMPER. She already has a runner-up finish on yielding ground, and even her firm-course form leading into this is solid. DEADLINE stumbled at the break of a race at Kentucky Downs, tossing jockey Brian Hernandez. She’s been a tough-luck filly for the most part this year. She, too, can handle give in the turf, having won over a “good” course at Churchill last fall.

EIGHTH RACE

MEADE and LEXITONIAN are graded stakes droppers from Saratoga that regroup in this allowance for trainer Todd Pletcher. They bring similar credentials into the race, having won at first asking at Belmont before going unplaced at the Spa. Gave the value nod to MEADE, believing he could be the bigger price than LEXITONIAN, who is sure to be popular with bettors in Lexington. As for the latter, he is the faster working one and lands Johnny V. POLE SETTER has route experience the top two lack. After making his first two starts on turf, he finished wide third in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill in his first start on dirt.

NINTH RACE

FRED’STWIRLINCANDY has hit the board in four of his six turf starts, with the exceptions coming when he raced in stakes races. Back in an allowance after running sixth in the Dueling Grounds Derby, he looks as good as anyone. Difficult to access his ability over wet ground since his only race over such turf came when he was outclassed in the aforementioned race at Kentucky Downs. DEMOLITION came up empty late when fourth at Kentucky Downs after staying closer to the pace than usual. He fits on turf, but his best chance of victory comes in an off-the-turf scenario. Five of his six starts, as well as his only victory, came come on dirt. HEAVEN IS WAITING is better than his recent form might suggest. He was unlucky to catch a couple off-the-grass races since returning from a layoff this year. He would rate higher than the third selection if rainy weather weren’t forecasted on Wednesday and into Thursday morn- ing. His only race on yielding ground resulted in a fourth-place finish as the favorite.

TENTH RACE

8-1 outsider BACK TOGETHERAGAIN, with improved recent form since joining the barn of trainer Brian Michael this summer, shifts from turf to dirt, over which he scored a victory two starts ago at Ellis Park. He has more speed than what he showed in his latest and can likely sit a stalking trip in here. UNION BOWMAN, an 11-year-old with 21 victories, was keen behind a slow pace last out at Churchill, and then took off when his rider’s reins broke. So best to excuse his recent fade to be seventh behind TONBO, a winner of three straight. The latter rises off the claim from $5,000 to $7,500 but looks tough yet again, facing essentially the same types of runners.