ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, OCEAN MONARCH

FIRST RACE

Kind of a mess ‘capping a few days out wondering if there will be turf at all and if there is what the course will be like. JENNIFER’S DREAM and CHERRY KNOT both main-track-only and either could do. JD could be the bigger price but looks fit and live shipping in from PRX with a very nice pedigree. Homebred Cherry Knot been working right along, including some encouraging dirt drills, at Fair Hill. DAKOTA READY’s debut on turf stamps her as a grass player, presumably at fair odds.

SECOND RACE

INDIAN BUCKS’s most recent run wasn’t much but he has plenty of other form to recommend him and a strong LRL turf record. REEDINI beat similar in off-turf tilt last time and might get a similarly favorable setup. 9yo SCOUT’S HONOR tried hard as usual last out but didn’t appear to be at his grassy best on dirt. Hope that effort didn’t take it’s toll.

THIRD RACE

Bungalow leads here on a slow-ish pace while SOUTHERN BARBECUE presses and gets first run on closers TEN HUT and DOUBLE WHAMMY. Barbecue has faced better in almost all the races showing on his form, like the distance, and with the trip outlined in this space could surprise. TEN HUT does look very well meant after a bit of a freshening and should be accorded a strong chance. DOUBLE WHAMMY would not especially appeal to this handicapper at close to the published odds.

FOURTH RACE

BAY HILL stuck way away out on the AE list, but his best chance would probably come on dirt, anyway, and he ought to draw in if this is rained onto the main. WISE MEN looks like the best candidate to slog through a laboring course - it of comes to that. Long on stamina. CHILI MAC N CHEESE 30-1 on the line and has the pedigree to handle the testing conditions should they prevail from last week.

FIFTH RACE

OCEAN MONARCH been lighting up the Fair Hill worktab (including dirt) all summer for capable debut outfit and looks very well meant first out. DANZ A REBEL took heavy debut action last time and didn’t deliver though he wasn’t bad. Blinkers could help. PASSCODE was DQ’d from a win in a similar spot last time and of course we often see this type regress in their next start.

SIXTH RACE

ADVERSARY holds some bi-surface appeal though would actually prefer him for turf in this spot. Down $12K from most recent claim price but was in as low as $5K this past spring, so don’t mind the drop. UNUSUAL FLEET cuts back from routes and his solid 7.5f form in two-turn races could turn him into the right sort of horse for a short sprint over testing ground. Main-track-only KING’S HOUSE has a touch too much “bridesmaid” to him to really lean on for win.

SEVENTH RACE

YOUNG AMERICAN got caught up in a strong mile pace Oct. 4 and didn’t stay, but did show he was back toward his better form from earlier this year. Well drawn outside to deploy stalking speed this trip and could be headed back toward something better - though not at much of a price. Rail-speed MIDNIGHT CRY will be pace-dependent and seems possible to take a step back after three good ones in a row. BE BACK’s clearly contending recent form also is a little too good for comfort giving the longer performance-level arc.