Victorine poised to improve in Pebbles

Turf is the name of the game when it comes to Saturday’s stakes events with all of the day’s biggest races scheduled on the green.

Woodbine has the marquee event of the day with the Grade 1, $800,000 Canadian International, supported by three other graded stakes, most notably the Grade 1, $500,000 E. P. Taylor. Here in the States, the big race is the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. Belmont, meanwhile, has a turf stakes doubleheader – the $200,000 Pebbles and the $100,000 Floral Park.

Pebbles Stakes

Wet weather, which has been a fact of life in the New York area for a couple of months now, has continued this week, meaning that it is likely this race will be run on footing that will be off, to at least some extent. That could spell trouble for both Got Stormy and Significant Form, two fillies who are prime win candidates on paper.

Got Stormy comes into this looking for her fourth straight stakes win. But if the turf is indeed off Saturday, this will be her first start on a course labeled anything other than firm. Moreover, Got Stormy will face a tougher brand of horse, and will do so off a 2 1/2-month layoff.

Significant Form, considered one of the very best members of the 3-year-old turf filly division only last spring, has seen her standing and form go south. The case for her Saturday says she will appreciate the cutback in distance from nine- and 10-furlong races and should find this an easier assignment. That said, her fifth last time out in the Lake Placid over a soft course – footing possibly close to what she will see Saturday and her first outing on anything other than firm footing – was her worst finish to date.

Victorine is my play. Victorine ran well on deeper turf courses in France earlier in her career, including a close fourth in a Group 3 stakes at Deauville, and her fourth in last month’s Sands Point in her U.S. bow was a much better effort than it might look on paper. Victorine was three to four wide throughout, but even more importantly she was severely compromised by an extremely slow pace. So it is to her credit that she made a run into the stretch to threaten before weakening late.

This time, Victorine should get more pace to track. In addition, she adds Lasix and makes her first start for the red-hot Christophe Clement, who won four stakes at Belmont last weekend.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

The once-beaten Rushing Fall is very good. One of the best things about her is her versatility – she can come from downtown, or be right on the pace if the fractions are slow. And as a result of her success, she is always heavily bet. But while Rushing Fall is the most likely winner here, she did have an easy trip when she won the Lake Placid most recently, her trainer, Chad Brown, has uncharacteristically struggled so far at the Keeneland meet, and I just want a better price.

I can’t resist Nyaleti. Nyaleti moves back in with straight 3-year-old fillies Saturday after being beaten only a little more than a length by older males in a Group 2 at Goodwood most recently, and being up against our two best grass mares in Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook in the Beverly D. two starts back, and being in with older horses in a Group 1 at Newmarket three back. The last time Nyaleti was in with 3-year-old fillies, she won the German 1000 Guineas by more than four lengths, an unusually big win margin in European racing.

Canadian International

It’s usually not my thing to feature a horse who lost his last start by 39 1/4 lengths. But that’s just what I’m doing in this spot by going with Spring Quality.

Spring Quality was distanced in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic most recently, but that was run on a deep, soft course that he very likely could not handle. Spring Quality is back on short rest for a top trainer in Graham Motion, and I take that as an excellent sign. I’m also not particularly taken with the European shippers here, so if Spring Quality can deliver a performance even fairly close to his win in the Manhattan Stakes three starts back, it would be too much for this field.