ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, STYLE AND GRACE

FIRST RACE

FINANCIAL SYSTEM was game to win his first two starts from off the pace vs. claiming company then stepped up and fell just short of running down his in-form entrymate at this level in his most recent start; pedigree doesn’t disqualify him from handling dirt should we be off and should he stay in. APART FROM THE CROWD has only made two starts on turf thus far, his career debut when racing a bit greenly and closing for 4th behind Frostmourne and then his first start back from a long layoff in July; tough to beat off the claim for Rudy if we are off the turf. LEMONIST took his first two starts on turf and hasn’t won since; third off the layoff after just missing at this level last time.

SECOND RACE

SAL THE TURTLE dropped in class two starts back and crushed a field with a new top figure, then moved back up and chased longshot Blue Belt around the track to no avail over seven furlongs, which may not be his preferred distance; back down in class and cutting back a furlong off the claim for a high-percentage trainer. BIG GUY IAN got back in form this year by putting his early speed in play while mostly racing for Rudy; been laid up for been laid up for two months off the claim after just holding on over a pair of next-out winners when last seen at Saratoga. ROCKFORD has run well enough to win both two and three starts back vs. better then chased a very wellmeant winner to no avail last time before giving way; drops looking to rebound.

THIRD RACE

PERFECT JOKE raced very greenly before getting untracked late in his debut sprinting on dirt, then switched to turf and made an outside run to catch up around the second-turn before flattening out a bit late in his second start (where he was not beaten over 16 lengths as posted in the running line); eligible to continue his improvement in this spot, on either surface. JIMMY JAZZ was okay with some excuses in his first two career starts, then showed up at Saratoga and had no chance on 8/19 when taken back and always out of position in a race that was dominated up front; moved inside after coming up short last time. BERNARDINO debuted in that 8/19 Saratoga race that was dominated on the lead and could make no impact from out of it after saving ground at the back of that field early; well-bred 3yo deserves another chance or two.

FOURTH RACE

LIFE’S A PARLAY was okay first time out while in some early traffic early and then racing on gamely late without real threat, then stretched to a mile and easily handled maidens with a 90 Beyer after an easy trip from the outside; starts back off the layoff in a spot where he won’t have to improve much while likely to be facing just three others. EARNED SUCCESS won each of his first three starts sprinting, including back to back allowance wins at Monmouth over six furlongs, then took a shot in the Gallant Bob to no avail; three-time winner has an edge on the likely favorite in terms of experience and recency. HIS NAME IS SUE has won four of six so far this year, including back to back new top figures in his last two starts; steps up while in form.

FIFTH RACE

ASTROLOGY HILL was off a layoff at this level last time and was a good pace right from the start before tiring in the late stages and getting run down by a closer; tough vs. this crew with a similar effort. NEON got wired by longshot Tiffany’s Vision at this level when last seen, though that horse did return to run a second consecutive new top figure in her next start; will try to close down the top one

late. MONTANA SKEPTIC debuts for a trainer who doesn’t win with many first time starters, but this is the right kind of spot and she has some pedigree on her side being from a five-time winning dam who has dropped several multiple winners already.

SIXTH RACE

STYLE AND GRACE has lacked early speed in her first two career starts sprinting on dirt, but she did finish up pretty well in that first one, and she was in a race last time that didn’t exactly lend itself to closing; Curlin filly is bred to get a little more distance and she is all turf on the bottom of her pedigree. PRINCESS TRINA was no factor sprinting on turf last time, but she can have another chance on dirt (assuming we are off) based on her debut, where she failed to break sharply and wound up in traffic at the back of the field, and was only fully clear in the very late stages. SECRET ALCHEMY is surface neutral on pedigree and is the first foal from his dam, who is a sister to a pair of stakes winners, both of whom handled multiple surfaces; trainer remains extremely underrated with first time starters.

SEVENTH RACE

SCARF IT DOWN dropped to win last time, in a race where he was also afforded the advantage of setting his own pace early, but he has been unlucky more than once in the lead up to that win; tough right back with his good race and he doesn’t need the lead to be at his best. HAPPY FARM caught a tough field for the level when dropped two starts back then moved up a level off the claim and proved to be no match late after chasing the pace; drops off the claim with a versatile running style and a nice outside post. MISSLE BOMB keeps showing up and running his race for anyone, which he will try to do again here as he moves up off the claim.

EIGHTH RACE

JC’S SHOOTING STAR has really found herself since being turned into a turf sprinter late last year and she comes into this race a little dirtied up after getting held up behind horses when a game 3rd three starts back, then getting rained off and finally losing all chance when forced to alter course sharply to avoid a stricken rival on the turn in the Smart N Fancy last time; projects to have some pace in front of her in a wide-open race here at a price. TILLIE’S LILY won the first four starts of her career without much fuss, then got bumped back at the start of the Smart N Fancy and never was able to make much of an impact after rushing forward; did get loose on the lead to win those turf sprints two and three back, but she is lightly-raced with some upside and should be able to get her preferred trip up close in this spot. ROCKY POLICY seems an unlikely winner on this race with her 1 for 14 overall turf record on display, but she shows up every time, is versatile in terms of running style, and just ran a very nice race vs. a few of these at Laurel while contesting the pace; will be a price.

NINTH RACE

GOOD THINGS TAKE TIME hasn’t won since taking her stateside debut last November at Del Mar but she has run very well several times vs. some of the better horses in this division, and she was badly compromised last time when rated back and taking a wide trip behind a slow pace; think this distance is just about as far as she wants to go and she may have found a race here that will set up better for her. VICTORINE shipped over with some credentials to try the Frade 2 Sands Point and she ran well in that race while coming wide and trying to close into a moderate pace; cuts back making her first start for Clement, who is in the midst of a good run right now on turf. SOUPER STRIKING cut back for her last two starts, including the Christiecat on turf where she nd rallied from last to get a piece at the end; back out to a better distance from a nice inside draw and she has been effective from both on and off the pace, and has handled soft turf in the past. Feel like SIGNIFICANT FORM deserves some passes for her recent starts, which may not be as disappointing as they appear, though would like her to drift in price before using; like her going shorter, but do wonder if soft turf works against her.

TENTH RACE

SMILES FROM SADIE back in for $40k after settling for 2nd best in each of her last two at this level, but will be making her first start off the Rudy claim this time, if we are off the turf. MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK has been unable to get a race to go on turf dating back to the end Saratoga meet, but she is interesting if and when she finally gets one to go after enduring a tough trip in her 3yo debut way back in June. DYNAMITE KITTEN taking the drop relatively early considering her pedigree but this is significant class relief for a filly who has some speed to put into from an inside draw.