ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, LAST PROMISE KEPT

FIRST RACE

A weak group of only eight older maidens is on deck for the opener and hoping to catch a little value with MJOLNIR, who was claimed for $75,000 at Kentucky Downs by Loooch Racing. Viewing that was a vote of confidence. Claim aside, he ran third last out and perhaps has upside with blinkers added. MY DREAM is the logical favorite, a former New Yorker who has a fifth and a second in two starts since moving to Kentucky; Beyers of just 69 and 72 here - indicative of him exiting slow races. SOMEBODY’S BEAU twice ran second at Churchill Downs in June, but has otherwise been unplaced in four other starts; bullet work leading into this at The Thoroughbred Center, though on a day when only five horses breezed at the five-furlong distance.

SECOND RACE

Trainer Mike Stidham holds a strong hand in the second race with SAN ELIJO and HALITE - two uncoupled stablemates that drop out of allowances into a $30,000 N2L claimer. Both are speed horses, but to duel would seem counterproductive. So expecting that SAN ELIJO, seemingly the faster of the two, will carve out the early fractions. HALITE, like SAN ELIJO, was second two back before going unplaced in his latest. His runnerup finish came at Delaware, compared to Parx for SAN ELIJO. ONE MORE TOM has come around recently with the addition of blinkers, first by breaking his maiden vs. New York-breds at Saratoga and then with a fourth for this tag at Churchill. A late-running sprinter for the most part, he struggled going a mile or longer earlier his career, but perhaps can show more here with the shades on.

THIRD RACE

Year-plus layoff horses typically are play-against types for this handicapper, but there is not much typical about COPPER TOWN. He is a horse that beat eventual graded stakes winners Backyard Heaven and Patterofrecognition in winning a maiden and first-level allowance last fall at Belmont. Out of action since, he has been working five-eighths for the last month for trainer Todd Pletcher, whose comebackers are usually cranked; already a winner when fresh. ICATIRO was a touch disappointing when fifth at Churchill Sept. 21, though it could have been a race he needed after being away for three months. Twice fourth in prior attempts over this track. CONTROL STAKE is regularly a factor against second-level allowance runners, though rarely a winner; seems best focused in the two-three spots in the gimmicks given his recent history of minor awards.

FOURTH RACE

The fourth race is a head-scratching maiden claiming 2-year-old race, one largely filled with inexperienced horses that were soundly beaten by classier, plus one first timer. GOZER THE GOZERIAN, outrun first out vs. straight maidens at Churchill, is at least training swiftly. He worked a bullet Sept. 18 at Churchill and turned in a near-bullet there from the gate Oct. 3, two drills that suggest there is likely more to this horse than what he showed on debut; also adds blinkers. EQUUS NOVUS kept up with maiden special weight rivals for a halfmile at Indiana and Churchill in each of his two starts, before treating down the lane; would have preferred to have seen a published work since running 11th at Churchill Sept. 15. SAMBUCCA is another speed-and-fader, one that gets blinkers removed.

FIFTH RACE

In a race in which so many seem content to settle for pieces, taking a shot with the lightly raced EVEN BEAT. Give her a pass for losing her latest by 35 lengths at Kentucky Downs. She appeared to try to jump over a section of the course there, and

after landing awkwardly, her rider lost his irons and her day was done. Previously she dominated a maiden claimer on the lead at Indiana Grand.

I GOT THE BOY has been competitive within the first-level allowance ranks while falling just short of victory. She receives a class drop to race in a starter and is a contender. Same goes for the stakes placed SHE DOESN’T MIND, a regular check earner. Hard to feel confident in her win prospects, however, considering she has settled for second six times in 10 U.S. starts since being imported from France. BROOME is the class of this $40,000 claimer, a filly that ran respectably in stakes in California this summer. She joins the Brad Cox stable and looks spotted to win by running against 3-yearold claimers. OUR GIRL ABBY has proven a regular contender in cheaper claimers over the spring and summer, usually going three quarters. Seven eighths might be a little beyond her best distance. HONOR WITH PRIDE isn’t all that fast on Beyers, running speed figures in the low 60s, but can handle the seven-furlong distance. Two wins over her last three races, though one was at Belterra and the other vs. cheaper $30,000 foes at Churchill.

SEVENTH RACE

CITY SIEGE seemed a victim of inexperience first out, breaking slowly and beating only a few horses in running sixth. His works since have been swift, as they were before his debut, suggesting talent. EXPLORATIONIST, a $825,000 2-year-old purchase in March, ran third as the favorite on debut at Ellis Park. His placement there, rather than at Saratoga, may indicate lowered barn expectations for this pricey purchase. BOURBON CALLING also ran third at first asking, doing so at Churchill last month. Limited put positive stats of McMahon riding for Wilkes, who typically uses Chris Landeros and Brian Hernandez most often in Kentucky. Lastly, TAPIT WISE merits respect, having trained quickly toward her debut and being by Tapit and a halfbrother to Wickedly Perfect, winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland in 2010.

EIGHTH RACE

Contention runs deep in the eighth race with just about every horse in the middle to outside of the starting gate having a chance. TREASURE IN HEAVEN, adding first Lasix after a comeback flop at Saratoga, gets a slight edge based on what she did in two prior starts. She debuted with a third at Keeneland last fall, and followed that up with a maiden victory over Alter Moon, an eventual stakes winner who was fourth in the Test this summer. TRACE has shown improved form in her last two races, first winning a maiden race by Ellis Park on dirt and then with a third at Kentucky Downs in a grass sprint. She was farther off the pace than usual that day, but so were all the top finishers in a race that was won by a mind-blowing 123-1 upsetter. UPSET BREWING, stakes placed as a 2-year-old last year, has been mired in the firstlevel allowance ranks and seems best used in the two-three spots in the gimmicks. Favored RUSHING FALL rebounded from her lone defeat in the Edgewood by authoritatively taking the Lake Placid. No doubt geared up for the QEII, the elite 3-year-old filly turf race of the fall, by trainer Chad Brown, and she has the tactical speed to be on or near what should be a slow pace. Can’t fault, aside from price. DADDY IS A LEGEND has yet to beat the top choice in four prior cracks at her, though she has come close on occasion. She caught soft turf in her latest when third in the Lake Placid, and is likely better than what she displayed that day. Prone to breaking nd poorly, she seems to like this turf course, though so does RUSHING FALL. FATALE BERE accelerated to win the Del Mar Oaks by a neck over Ollies Candy, though the feeling here is that the California 3-year-old fillies are a cut below the better ones from the east. Still, this miss is at the top of her game, and running her best distance of 1 1/8 miles. She rates just ahead of Euro invader NYALETI, who has been competitive with older horses in her last two starts - though ultimately unplaced after being outquickened.

TENTH RACE

LAST PROMISE KEPT is a clear-cut choice if able to draw in from the also-eligible list. She came within a half-length of victory in the One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs when third behind On Leave, a graded stakes winner. Although she clearly loves that course - having also broken her maiden there a year earlier - note she was a Keeneland course winner last fall, too. VAGABOND PRINCESS was ambitiously spotted off a layoff in the John Mabee at Del Mar this summer, and backed up to be last of 11 after chasing the pace. She is far better suited to this allowance, back in her home state of Kentucky. Reunited with jockey Jack Gilligan, who has been aboard for most of her better races, including a couple stakes placings over the winter at Fair Grounds. YOU CHEATED is moving forward for her current connections, first with a close third in an allowance on turf and then with a blowout victory in the slop in an off-the-turf race at Churchill. For a horse who had previously lost three dirt races, the latter start was a breakthrough effort.