ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MIDNIGHT KARMA

FIRST RACE

The Wednesday card is kicked off with a maiden $15,000 claimer going 6 1/2 furlongs, a race in which CONCORD COUPE holds a form and early speed edge. She has been on the board in three straight races, owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, and has the Timeform-US pace ratings to suggest she should be on or near the lead. MINE MINE MINE finished in front of the top choice in a prior head-to-head meeting, running second in a race at Churchill June 10 in which ‘CONCORD was third, but her latest was subpar, a seventh-place finish and she doesn’t have the early foot of the top choice. Perhaps her latest can be excused to some extent, having come after a layoff. SUMMER LOVIN surprisingly shows up first out for a cheap tag despite quick works leading up to her debut. A daughter of Super Saver, she is bred for speed, with her dam, by Indian Charlie, having scored her one victory sprinting.

SECOND RACE

In a race in which most of these $16,000 claimers stepping up in class, prefer starter droppers IVY’S COLLEGE FUND and PROUD DIXIE. In addition to facing easier company, they are winners over the Keeneland main track. Gave the nod to ‘FUND over ‘DIXIE due to having more early speed. As for DIXIE, she has gone unplaced in three races since winning here in the spring, though one of those failures came on turf and another in the slop. WHAT WHAT WHAT is quick and consistent, having hit the board in eight straight races. She possesses the speed to be involved in the pace and looms a threat on the rise from $10,000 to $16,000 off a claim.

THIRD RACE

Coming off a debut at Kentucky Downs in which he ran fifth in what seemed a quality maiden field, FAKE SOLUTION has move-forward potential second out. He has recorded lively works in recent weeks at Churchill Downs Trackside, two of which earned bullet status there. Winning Keeneland connections. LAKE NAKURU, twice second in as many starts, is the likely favorite and clearly the one to beat. Perhaps speedy enough to partially offset his far-outside draw. LOVE POINT was fifth behind eventual Grade 1 Summer winner Fog of War at Saratoga before heading to Kentucky Downs and disappointing with a ninth there. Works since inspire, and Landeros lands on this Wilkes-trained runner, not GAME DAY DECISION.

FOURTH RACE

A closer for much of her 29-race career, QUALITY STREET showed a change in style in her latest, chasing a demanding pace before fading to third. That was an encouraging effort after four prior rear-half finishes. That last-race performance, coupled with her back class, results in her getting the ever-so-slight nod in what seems a wideopen $7,500 claimer. SOARING NOW invades from Canterbury, where she has been chasing fast paces in recent starts. She figures to be prominent from the start in this race, which doesn’t appear to have very much pace. A winner here in April 2017 for different connections. SEEKING BULL looks like one of the classiest runners, but drew post 12 and could be at risk of a wide trip while trying to rally from midpack.

FIFTH RACE

RICH DADDY, unplaced in three starts in 2018, remains kept in the upper-level claiming ranks, a positive sign that his connections are keeping the faith in him. He goes second time off a layoff, and is the choice based on his 12-for-32 dirt record. LANGDARMA, who like the top choice is dropped from $50,000 to $40,000 company, has enjoyed a winning year, going two for nine and making over $63,000. His career dirt record doesn’t compare

to that of the top selection, having gone 5 for 33.

ALL ABOUT ASHLEY rebounded from a couple of dismal Saratoga performances to win an optional claimer on the lead at Indiana. Not sure he can carve out the early splits here without being hustled, though he has elternatively won numerous races from just off the pace.

SIXTH RACE

Typical for a stakes-quality 3-year-old turf horse, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was given a shot earlier in the year in Derby preps to try to see if he could replicate his fine grass performances on dirt. He did so in two of three starts, picking up some graded stakes placings, before going to the sidelines after a fifth in the Louisiana. Now as he kicks off a fall campaign, he returns to the lawn, over which he is a two-time stakes winner. Choice on class despite the potential to be short fitness after a layoff going back to March. BELGIAN is a fitting selection for second as he has finished in that position six times over 11 turf starts. Nailed in his latest by the hardknocking Bushrod at Kentucky Downs in a Claiming Crown starter prep. SHARM EL SHEIKH twice ran third in second-level allowances at Kentucky Downs, including once behind Hembree, next-out winner of the Nearctic at Woodbine over the weekend.

SEVENTH RACE

MIDNIGHT KARMA overcame a tardy start to win her first race by 12 lengths at Delaware Aug. 27. Now with Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, she figures to improve, not only from her debut but also from the regular gate schooling Asmussen gives his youngsters. BELL’S THE ONE, who lit up the tote with a 32-1 victory at first asking at Arlington, now figures among the favorites in this first-level allowance. A closer in a field of speed horses, she has noticeably picked up the tempo in her recent breezes. How she responds on dirt is the question. The same goes for THUNDEROUS GEM, another filly with strictly synthetic form. She is twice stakes placed, having run second in the Arlington Washington Lassie and third vs. males in the Fitz Dixon Memorial at Presque Isle.

EIGHTH RACE

GOSTISBEHERE, making the third start of his current form cycle after winning a $50,000 N2L claimer at Churchill, has shown a liking for this turf course. In addition to winning a race here last fall, he was also second in the spring to Focus Group, a horse that is now a stakes winner. Perhaps a little better suited to 1 1/8 miles than others, he rates as the value-based choice at his 6-1 morning line. DISCOVERED, dramatically improved over the past couple months for trainer Daniel Sanner, gets class relief to go from running second in the Sept. 29 Jefferson Cup at Churchill to now face starter $50,000 runners. Maybe so sharp right now he can negotiate the 1 1/8-mile distance. BLUE LUTE won first off the claim for Maker, scoring at the maiden $75,000 level. This horse has acted like a miler to this point in his career, though now peaking for his current stable, he might be able to go farther.