ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SEMPER SENTENTIAE

FIRST RACE

COUNTRY SQUIRE returned from a layoff at Gulfstream last month and showed early speed before conceding the front to the eventual winner, and then got shuffled out of position around the turn; drops again looking like the clear early speed in this spot. SUPPORT OUR CAUSE has so far lacked speed at the MSW level, and while he did no real running over that sloppy track last time, he did make a run around the turn in his debut after breaking slowly; big class drop for this. CURLIN’S NEW MOON has already had his chances but he has run some races in the past that would give him a chance here; lack of early speed works against him.

SECOND RACE

SEMPER SENTENTIAE made a promising debut after a tough trip at Saratoga then moved down here and stayed strongly to easily handle maidens with a much better trip over this distance; faces a tougher rival in the form of LADY PANAME but may be catching her at the right time off the layoff. LADY PANAME has been treated as a true stayer from the start and won her debut going long in France by a nose, before going straight into stakes company where she acquitted herself well, including a solid effort last September behind the top stayer Ice Breeze; has to be ready off the layoff but she may just be too good for these horses as she ships in to make her first start for Chad. VORTEX ROAD was ridden with plenty of confidence and proved to be much the best against NY-breds last time; distance a real question, especially against horses like this, but she is underrated and in good form right now.

THIRD RACE

CANDYMANKANDO wasn’t all that sharp and proved to be no factor when dropped in class at Saratoga but that trip didn’t really work out for him and he does have some better races to get to; makes first start off the claim for dangerous connections and Irad sticks. HOKULEA took advantage of a meltdown pace to win at this level two starts back then was no threat last time against a better field; new trainer has been on a good run in NY over the past few months and he won with a dirt sprinter off the claim last weekend. BLINDED VISION got the front and stayed on to wire a field over a speed-favoring track two starts back, then went to Parx and gave way after dueling the pace to the top of the stretch; looks like the main speed in this matchup.

FOURTH RACE

SUBA LOU exits a race that came back slow in her turf debut at Delaware but she showed speed to get forward in that race, before chasing the eventual winner to no avail and settling for secondbest; ships in to face an undistinguished group for an underrated trainer. MUSICAL LUTE is drawn out wide for the class drop, but it is a necessary one after getting in two starts at the MSW level and lacking the finish to contend with those horses; was held up early in that last one which left her out of position, but she never made much of a run once clear. BRAMBLE BAY was a big price making her turf debut last time and couldn’t kick with those horses in the stretch after getting into a good trip early; class drop helps and she has some speed.

FIFTH RACE

GOLDEN VALE kept a solid pace within range last time and closed it down late to break her maiden over a rival who came back to get loose on the lead en route to an easy win here last weekend; enters right back in a logical spot for a trainer who has a good record with last out maiden winners. SCRIPTED got her maiden win with a late run on turf two starts back but she has run well on dirt prior to that and fits well as she switches back to the main track while dropping in class; has twice been scratched by the vet since that last start. MAZMANIA was held up behind horses early on in that last one, before moving off the stronger inside paths and finishing gamely to get 3rd with-

out threat; contends here with her good race and she is usually a price.

SIXTH RACE

CANARSIE KID ran one of his better races last time when denied the lead over a distance that pushes his limits a bit, and showed that he can handle softer ground in the process; gets to go shorter this time and doesn’t face as strong a group as he did in that last one. FAST GETAWAY impressed winning his turf debut from a tracking position, then caught yielding ground in his first start at this level and was under pressure on the lead all the way before weakening late; moves to a better outside post for his second attempt. OUTRAGEOUS BET has never been better than he is right now and he seems to have really appreciated the give in the ground that we have been experiencing over the past few months in NY; comes right back at his best distance looking to keep his solid run going.

SEVENTH RACE

BARRIER ISLAND was progressing steadily as a late 2yo and finished up gamely in a pace-dominated race at Tampa when last seen in the Gasparilla; won’t have to improve much off those 2yo races if she is close to ready off the layoff. ASCOT WALK chased from the outside on a day when the rail was strong and tired late when defeated as a heavy favorite last time, though she wasn’t facing the strongest 1x field in that spot; looks like the main speed this time and that may be enough. HAIL won easily over maidens in her most recent start around one turn and has since gone long twice on the main track - once in stakes company - and tried turf to no avail last time; well-bred filly turns back and returns to dirt looking to improve.

EIGHTH RACE

WINTER UNION took over late to break her maiden when stretched out for the first time at Saratoga and he came right back with another solid effort over this distance last time to just miss to a rival who has position on him throughout the race; seems a likely spot here if he manages to run as well again. VINTAGE MATTERS was no factor after getting outrun behind stakes repeater Hello Don Julio at Laurel last time but he gets this distance and has run some races that would give him a chance here at what may be a fair price; closer needs some pace. WAR CHEST may not have improved all that much from his winning debut last September, but he has landed in some pretty tough races along the way, especially in his four starts so far as a 3yo; stretches out again.

NINTH RACE

GOOD OLD BOY tried to stretch it out last time and couldn’t work his way into contention along the inside; cuts back to a better distance and he actually ran pretty well two starts back after getting bumped back to last at the start. VALMONT a guess making just his second start off a long layoff while dropping in class, but he has a turf pedigree and gets a change to an excellent trainer for this, and it’s hard to argue with this placement. TIME EXPIRED has been with the flow of the race in both prior competitive efforts on turf but that kind of versatility is a virtue and either one of those races would likely contend in this spot.