ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, WALL

FIRST RACE

Well, here we go again: To turf, or not to turf? That is the Laurel question. DANCING WITH PAY NT ER keeps basically repeating the same turf race, and that performance level looks good enough for this spot. Drop to $16K makes sense given her lack of competitiveness in the recent allowance tries. LOVELY SUNSET profiles similarly to the top pick regarding suitability to the spot, but with her I’d be more concerned about getting through a deep, tiring turf course. Main-track-only HAVANA AFFAIR didn’t appeal on first glance but looking harder there are very few dirt types entered.

SECOND RACE

BEAR TRAPPE has gotten some seasoning that ought to have served him well and already stayed a two-turn mile at DEL. Combine that form with his sprint tries — also solid for this tag, 5X more than published purchase price - and the one-turn mile ought to be just fine. THREE PHASE mainly just ran into a blowout winner last time regarding a superficial dip in performance. On pedigree at least he gets the trip. SAN MARCO an unknown variable starting for new barn after a no-show in EMD debut. Suspect he might have more to offer at a price.

THIRD RACE

TAP THE MARK cruised to debut win before facing stronger competition than this in his last three. Suspect he’s well meant on the drop, and though one might wonder about 6f, “logical” local runners from the C Gonzalez barn have recently been firing on all cylinders - all eight of them! CRAZED aired in his only previous try for this tag, but he’s tough to read since all three races came on sloppy tracks. BROTHER TEZ also has only wet-track form. Narrow debut score puts him in the convo.

FOURTH RACE

WALL is a from a very good Maryland family and by Include, who was campaigned by same owners, and he has the look of a very live first-timer in a race open to such a horse. Guess the concern would be if he needs more distance but this maiden field doesn’t look anythinc close to leaded. QUALITY MATTERS was dead on the board last out in career debut and ran to that price. Might have needed the run to shake him up and now is blinkers on with a couple interim works. Have to think he shows more. BY THE SEY SHORE another firster from same barn as top pick. He debuts for the claiming price and hasn’t worked as much on dirt as Wall.

FIFTH RACE

SHE’S ACHANCE TOO hasn’t raced in two months and shows one lonely published 3f drill between starts. Its cause for a long pause, but she’s on a three-race win streak that coincided with addition of blinkers and is well drawn to beat a humdrum bunch for the level. THREE ILLUSIONS has tried a variety of dirt races but 6f might be her best and she enters this a fresh horse - FWIW. D J’S FAVORITE keeps taking betting and probably will take some more here. Stuck down on the fence and not showing a great deal of development.

SIXTH RACE

No strong opinion in the day’s feature - not at all. ADULATOR ran flat as a pancake last out at BEL making his first start off a $50K claim while taken from barn that, you know, knows what they’re doing. On the other hand he’s back again in allowance company, worked a fairly snappy half-mile, and has great latitude for improvement off that clunker. On or near what might be a mild pace. GENERAL DOWNS and HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME both one-time residents of the Dallas Stewart barn, and both flashed potential at one point that never seemed to get fully expressed. Not sure at this juncture it ever will, either. GENERAL DOWNS should be just as effective at this two-turn trip as he was last time at one, but it looks like he might have developed a hanging habit. HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME is first off the Navarro claim, and it seems a positive he’s been freshened up for move back into allowance condition.

Three races back for ADIOS ANNIE goes all the way to February 2017, so there have been some issues. That being said, she showed ability from the start and there is still room to come forward just four races into career, and if her problems are at least to some extent behind her now, plenty of reason to believe she can adequately improve second start into her comeback. BREAKING BREAD has been chasing this second allowance condition just about forever. She’s a tweener sort regarding distance making this rail draw all the trickier going a 6f trip that looks short of ideal. FORMAL CLASS cleared this condition last February, in here under the claiming option without a lot of upside but with current form that might contend.

EIGHTH RACE

They’ve tried striking early and late with LIBERALE and just can’t seem to convince here that she should, you know, go out there and win. The second-itis is a problem but she clearly fits the level, and think she’ll get over a laboring course better than many. Today the day? Maybe? LOVE TO SHARE “classes” up comfortably at this N2L claiming class based on her recent maiden form and went over “good” ground more than adequately in last two, which bodes well for handling what might yet be a wet LRL course. MTO EYE OF THE WILDCAT hardly brings blockbuster credentials but could wind up in a very soft spot if this is rained onto the main.

NINTH RACE

TAPANISTA just needs one scratch to draw in from AEs. Faded late in last, but that was an improved performance in just her second start, and figure she sticks around longer with fitness gained from that race. THESWEETESTTABOO changes trainers and circuits and despite being entered into the field’s main body looks a prime player for dirt. Main track or grass, BLAME JULIE should get into the mix. Closed grand ground last time on turf, which came for this maiden-claiming tag.