ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, BOBBY MAN

FIRST RACE

BOBBY MAN debuted in a race that was won by a big longshot but he had a real excuse there while bumped hard at the start to wind up last, and then racing on gamely late, while still a bit green, to just miss 3rd; set to do better with that one behind him for his highly underrated trainer. WACKY PAL by a sire who has yet to find success on turf (from a very limited sample) but he is all turf sprint on the bottom of his pedigree and debuts for a trainer who is having something of a breakout year. CRACK SHOT doesn’t have much pedigree on the bottom but he is a Freud and he brought over $100k earlier this year; shows up with trio of progressively faster gate works for trainer who is aces with his first time starters.

SECOND RACE

HOLIDAY DISGUISE hasn’t improved her figures much since missing significant time as a 3yo but she has shown that she can still run while becoming a graded stakes winner, and she has been up against it in her last two starts, first in the Dancin Renee that featured no passing, and then when in against tougher last time and finishing gamely to just miss getting a bigger piece; effective closer projects to have a better setup this time. SATISFY stepping in to face the toughest field of her career but she has so far made few mistakes and has improved from race to race while easily taking each of her last three starts; sat a nice trip last time but settled that race quickly once finally coming clear and she lands in a spot here where she can settle early once again. HIGHWAY STAR has lost a step as a 5yo but she is still effective in races like this and she was just tagged by HOLIDAY DISGUISE after making the lead three starts back.

THIRD RACE

TAPITATION hasn’t won a race in well over two years but that span comprises only 12 starts and includes an extended layoff, and he has shown some signs of life recently, most notably when a game 2nd to Blacktype three starts back; wound up in tight in the stretch in a closers race two starts back and he might have been kept too close to the pace while in a wide trip last time. OFFERING PLAN the one to beat as the likely favorite as he gets back to a better distance around one turn after falling short in a pair of two-turn races in his last two starts; excellent effort into a rated pace in the Forbidden Apple prior to heading upstate and is unlikely to lose to these horses if he can run something like that in this spot. KHARAFA got back to his winning ways when pulling off an upset over a few of these in the West Point and he was one of several back in here chasing BLACK TIDE to no avail last time, though he was only outfinished in the late stages for a bigger piece that day; 9yo once loved cut in the ground but he doesn’t appear to be as comfortable over that kind of turf course lately, which may have worked against him a bit last time.

FOURTH RACE

GOLD FOR THE KING has been unlucky at times and is a NY-bred who could easily have a better record than the one he sports nearing the end of his 4yo campaign, which is why it was nice to see them take no prisoners two starts back en route to that top figure score; won’t be able to take this field gate to wire but he is effective from off the pace and fits well in this field with his good race, and at least a fair trip. RUNAWAY LUTE was unlucky two back when coming clear just a little too late in a meltdown race and he exploded out of that race to crush a field with a big new Beyer top; hasn’t been seen since flipping in the paddock prior to the Morrissey at Saratoga but he appears to be training strongly into this for a trainer on a good run right now. LONG HAUL BAY got off to a nice start

as a 4yo this year but was disappointing in a pair of Saratoga starts over the summer; thought that last one was a step back in the right direction; needs to come forward again vs. this field but he has shown enough ability in the past to be given the chance.

FIFTH RACE

LA MONEDA used her tactical advantage to get the jump on FIFTY FIVE and held her off to the wire while making it 4 for 4 on turf this year; improved mare has that rival to beat once again but is likely to have first run once again and she figures tough if holding form after skipping the Hettinger. FIFTY FIVE fell just short of LA MONEDA at Saratoga then had a relatively easy time closing down the Hettinger in that one’s absence last time; talented filly has more than held her own vs. some tough competition this year and is the one to beat as she looks to defend her title in this race. LADY JOAN was dead game on a solid pace when just failing to secure LA MONEDA and FIFTY FIVE in the Yaddo two back, then returned to take pressure in the Hettinger and was no match for FIFTY FIVE over that longer trip; has that same pace rival to contend with in this spot but she is in good form right now.

SIXTH RACE

One more chance for QIAN B C back on turf after enduring a couple of troubled trips in his first two career starts, most notably that first one when overreacting to some traffic on the turn and falling out of contention, before rallying again late; forget that last one when chasing wide over a track that favored the inside when rained off the turf. EXCHANGE FEVER contested the pace from the start and weakened late in a race that went to a last-to-first winner in his career debut at Saratoga, for which he took some money; makes his second start as a new gelding for a dangerous trainer. LOST IN MANHATTAN hasn’t done much significant running yet but he is getting a trainer change and adding blinkers for this race after trying to stretch it out last time, and he is much better bred for sprinting on the grass.

SEVENTH RACE

Without much separating the known quantities in this field of 2yo fillies will try GALADRIEL’S LIGHT making her second career start after lacking speed and then just racing on all through the stretch in a race that looked a lot like a prep first time out for a trainer who excels with horses like this; filly from the family of Travers winner West Coast figures to appreciate the stretch out. MAIDEN BEAUTY drew a tough post on the rail but she exits a race last time where she had no chance after getting held up behind a slow pace to wind up last and buried down on the inside early; won her debut in stakes

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility. company, though there wasn’t much to that field, and she was up against it in her second start while chasing in a race that was changed significantly after the favorite and likely speed scratched at the gate. Like Maiden Beauty, SHE’S TROUBLE has been badly compromised in her last two starts and actually ran better than the figures make it look; not sure that more distance is what she wants but she deserves another chance.

EIGHTH RACE

Connections paid up for MARKET BUBBLE back in March and he came through for them with an impressive win first time out sprinting on turf, then tried the Laurel Futurity that was run over a bog of a course in his next start; has enough dirt in his pedigree to make the switch and he is bred to handle the stretch out. POPPY’S DESTINY got to the front and prevailed first time out vs. what appeared to be a pretty good field at Saratoga, and he returned to chase a contested pace last time before getting rolled by an impressive winner; draws the rail for the stretch out. BUSTIN TO BE LOVED ran well in his first two starts for a trainer who has shown up with some good 2yos this year and he paid the price while part of a three-way contested race in the Bongard last time; draws outside again which allows him some options this time.

NINTH RACE

Maybe it was sprinting that brought out the improvement in BONITA BIANCA this year, but she was effective going long last year and went off favored in this race as a 3yo, where she had little chance in a race dominated up close; should be able to keep closer early with those sprints under her belt. TAKE CHARGE AUBREY just failed to hold on going longer and around two turns two starts back at Saratoga vs. several of these horses, then found an easier spot last time and blew away allowance rivals with a perfect trip to match her top figure; two for two at this distance over this track and she is adaptable to different pace scenarios. SPLIT TIME prevailed in her two-turn debut at Finger Lakes then just missed in a blanket finish the Fleet Indian last time; like her getting back to a one-turn route in a race where she will be a price.

TENTH RACE

CALCULATED RISKER has much to prove vs. a field like this but he improved noticeably when stretched out off the claim back in April, then backed that race up well when keeping a legit pace in range and holding off the best closer in the race last time over a sloppy track; needs his best but he can sit the right trip here at a price. PAT ON THE BACK has been in career-best form this year and has handled the incremental increase in distance leading up to this; went with the first run to contention and was just outfinished late last time, though he will likely be facing a tougher pace scenario this time. CAN

YOU DIGGIT finished gamely to close down PAT ON THE BACK over this distance last time, and he was heavily favored when getting in front of CALCULATED RISKER and keeping him at bay back in April; handles this distance well and is versatile enough to take advantage of any race shape.

ELEVENTH RACE

STARLITE MISSION has only run on turf twice and while she was nowhere in the second of those, she actually ran well in her debut on this surface while earning a competitive figure; back to turf after improving her main track form in her recent starts. DREAM

PASSAGE was in a race that went to closers last time but she has some trouble coming clear in that race, and put in a strong finish too late once she did; horse to beat has run well in both turf starts off the claim and she can get this distance. MAMA MARY broke her maiden over a sloppy track after being rained off for the third consecutive time last month but she ran well in her lone turf start to date in a race that was dominated by the 1-2 finishers up on the pace.