ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, ROCKY ROGUE

FIRST RACE

CALIFORNIA GOLD ran great in his local debut even though he broke 9th of 10 from the rail. He lost to a good horse that was odds on. He draws outside today and looks to be the best speed even though he cuts back a full furlong. The absolute one to beat. MT POCKETS showed some speed in his last few but those were going 6 1/2 furlongs so we expect a stalking trip today. It is always nice to see a local work and this gelding lures a top jock in Stevens. MAGIC WOLF just didn’t fire last out and maybe that was because of the sloppy Joe surface. This gelding has passed a runner before and that could come in handy today.

SECOND RACE

RATE THE REPUBLIC is the value. When last seen on this dirt, this filly was beating over half the field home versus 30K maiden optional claimers. When she tried two turns for the first time...she won and ran a Beyer top of 52. Recent races aren’t so hot but they were for a different trainer and mostly against allowance foes. Now we have the return of Stetson Rushton along with a couple of local works. SUSAN SNUCK IN is a little better of late. She has won at today’s distance and it was a Beyer top of 55. LUNA’S EMPIRE is feeling good but ran poorly in both mile tries. Maybe she is just better now than when last seen locally.

THIRD RACE

CHARLEYS EDDY just didn’t like Canterbury. It happens. He was bet down like a sure thing last out and won easily. Team Diodoro could have found this gelding a $3,500 N3L spot but opted for $8,500 and that says volumes. BEAR MINIMUM has been facing open claimers at Emerald and now drops into restricted foes. Race flow is fine and we like the half furlong cut back. Lone poor start came when off slow in his second race. DISTORTED AT THE BAR ran quite well two back even though he was between runners. Maybe he bounced last out or didn’t care for 6 1/2 furlongs. He certainly has some back class.

FOURTH RACE

MONGOLIAN CHEETAH got what she needed from her debut and that was race experience. Now she tries easier at what should be a better distance. Works are perfect and we think the world of the Molly Pearson barn. SHARP MIND got some play in her debut but then blew the start. She figures more mature now and gets first Lasix. The Barrio barn is 28% with their new runners. MARIANA’S GIRL gets back to a real dirt surface and goes third off the layoff. We spy a few decent efforts at Santa Anita. Who knows, maybe she will like it here. A better price than many of these. SHAKEN MEMORIES will attract a lot of money but we just don’t like her.

FIFTH RACE

COLONEL GOTHAM is the value. He has done his best racing on this dirt and it isn’t up for discussion (8-0-0-0 elsewhere). He comes in fresh and has some speed so that should make for a great trip. Connections have found him a great spot and he is 15-1 on the morning line (we would love to get half that). JEN’S BIG O just ran a Beyer top on this dirt. His figs are going in the right direction and he drops in class today. Does he look too good? We all know what often happens to those types. READY FOR LUCK is in good form and has run well on this dirt before. Alas, he doesn’t get a lot of pace to chase today.

SIXTH RACE

ALL TRUMPED UP ran a Beyer top when last seen on this dirt. He comes in fresh and ready with tactical speed on the resume. Arrieta knows this gelding well and he often responds to him. SIR KOWBOY is versatile and draws outside. When last seen locally he was facing better. Trainer stats are solid. PEACOCK COWBOY broke dead last in his last start but won anyway. Diodoro could have found this guy a $3,500 spot but opted for tougher $8,500. This gelding broke poorly two back. Early tote action could tell the tale.

SEVENTH RACE

DYNAMIC RESPONSE finds a great spot. New barn is doing good things (they have a runner in the first race). From cycle hints at better. We see

EIGHTH RACE

ROCKY ROGUE has been unlucky in his entire career as he caught race after race with a fast pace. That changes today. He should get an early breather for the first time. Lone local work was sharp as if he already loves it here. REDESIGN is just a hard trier. He won his lone try at today’s distance and it came just before the short layoff. Is he a new sprint horse? It seems that Diodoro can do no wrong to start this meet. CROSS CREEK is capable of a Beyer in the high 70’s. Previous barn won at 3% so maybe new barn can improve this gelding some. Grinding style isn’t the best for six furlongs unless there is a ton of speed which there is not. Can’t wait to see this guy in an elongated sprint here.