ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TATHQEEF FIRST RACE

CALEDONIAN needs his best vs. a field of hardhitters but he is underrated and remains open to improvement as he makes his second start off the layoff and just his fourth of the year; raced on from behind a rated pace last time while also facing a good field. ALMITHMAAR was game to prevail two back after being rated off the pace, then proved to be no match for a better field than this one last time while using his early speed; has enough speed to make the lead in this spot though think he is likely best at six furlongs. HELOOKSTHEPART hasn’t been quite as good lately as he was after first arriving in NY last summer and he hasn’t had his usual big finish in recent starts; big threat if he can find it once again as he goes off the re-claim for Diodoro.

SECOND RACE

ANOTHER improved in his first two turf starts of the year over this course during the spring/ summer meet, including that first one when down inside and awaiting room in the stretch before falling just short of FRONTIER MARKET; didn’t fire over softer ground at Saratoga after a wide trip but can rebound here at a better price. FRONTIER MARKET had shown up consistently at short prices while having trouble breaking through to start his career, but he caught a setup last time and powered over maidens after working his way clear last time; horse to beat right back. LEAVEEMATTHEGATE ran well two and three starts back at big prices at Saratoga then got in too tough trying the AT Cole last time; underrated 5yo is back in a spot where he can do well once again.

THIRD RACE

SHOW PRINCE was let go at a big price first time out but he outran his odds while chasing a fast pace all the way and fighting his way to a late lead, before getting closed down by a last to first winner; figures tough if he can run as well in his second start. STEAM ENGINE has been bet hard and has flashed good speed in both career starts to date, but has failed to finish those races off; slight cut back to six furlongs helps his cause as he tries again at what figures to be another short price. WILD BOAR raced down on the inside and behind horses for a long way in his debut, before edging clear and failing to make a late impact in what looked like a pretty good race; may be in a better spot this time and it’s not like he has to improve all that much to be a factor.

FOURTH RACE

THE CROCHERON KID fell short of a couple of these in his most recent turf start but only after racing wide in a race that featured little closing; infrequent winner is often pace-compromised but his best race gives him a big chance vs. this field. DISCRETIONARY MARQ may have taken advantage of dynamics last time but he was game to hold his advantage once taking over and has now won two in a row sprinting over the inner turf here; doesn’t hold much of an edge on this field at a likely short price but he is in good form and his versatility is a plus. PSYCHIC ENERGY was off the layoff when unable to make a late impact vs. a few of these last month; was improving late last year as a 3yo and carried his development into 2018 when just getting up to win his first start back.

FIFTH RACE

BOURBON N RYE gave way late in his Saratoga debut, but only after contesting a fast pace from the start, and he was badly compromised last time when bumped back at the start which left him to race wide on a day when the rail was strong; good post on the outside in a spot where he can go back to using his speed off a clean break. READY TO ESCAPE was favored when settling for second-

best ahead of BOURBON N RYE last time, but he also endured a wide trip in that spot; didn’t run as well two starts back but that race came off a layoff and he has otherwise looked like a horse who won’t be a maiden for long. SAN JUAN DIEGO outfinished READY TO ESCAPE two starts back when that rival was off the layoff but he has otherwise failed to find much improvement since getting up for 3rd in a race that was collapsing late in his first NY start of the year back in April; turns back.

SIXTH RACE

TATHQEEF switched back to turf last summer and paid immediate dividends while holding off a good field going longer over this turf course, and he was turned back to this distance two starts later to run an even better race while just failing to overcome a troubled trip; drops for his second start off the layoff. ADONIS CREED ran a deceptively good race three starts back when cutting a legit pace going long vs. a strong field and he looked to be on his way to an easy win in his next start when getting spooked by something in the stretch and dumping his rider; dropped to this level last time and got caught in traffic through the stretch. KEEP QUIET exits the same race as ADONIS CREED where they were both dropped in class, and he raced wide there while off a layoff and made no late impact; can do better second time back and may appreciate getting back over some former turf.

SEVENTH RACE

EPIC DREAMER and MIHOS exit the same race where they made their respective debuts and finished 2nd and 3rd behind an impressive winner. EPIC DREAMER got forward in that spot to track in behind the lead and finished gamely once splitting horses at the top of the stretch, but just had no chance with Vekoma powering clear; Orb colt figures tough in his second start, assuming he handles the stretch out. MIHOS raced on gamely to be a clear 3rd without threatening the top two in his debut; $320k yearling adds Lasix for his second start and goes for a trainer who excels stretching out on dirt. BRING THE DOUGH was never a factor when debuting behind a talented stablemate over a sloppy track last month, but he raced greenly there after failing to break sharply from the gate and wound up taking plenty of dirt; Bernardini colt from the family of Jewel Princess is bred to stretch out.

EIGHTH RACE

CLOSER STILL a 3yo stepping up to face some solid older sprinters but she can have an impact on this field if able to run as well as she did in her two most recent starts sprinting on turf, both of which saw her enduring enough trouble to be considered unlucky; was compromised in both of those races by winding up back off the pace early, but she has shown more speed in her other races and can get forward in this spot, assuming she breaks cleanly from the gate. RUMBLE DOLL was bought back by these connections after being claimed out of her most recent start at Saratoga, where she was caught in some traffic in the stretch before getting up for 2nd; closer needs a setup to be most effective but she kicks hard when things go her way. SISTER SOPHIA rolled over a weaker field from last when cut back to sprint at Saratoga two starts back and she ran equally well last time in a race that did not develop strongly in front of her; underrated mare needs a little pace.

NINTH RACE

BELFAST COWBOY dropping for his NY debut after giving way vs. tougher over quirky Kentucky Downs turf course last month; had been improving from race to race following winning debut for a tag prior to that last one, including solid 3rd in his turf and route debut two starts back. KULIN ROCK had lost his solid form upon arriving back in NY over the summer but he finished gamely to just miss once getting clear of the class drop last time; right back at the same level off the claim. GOSILENTLY has trouble getting there first but does show up and run every time; couldn’t make the lead when finishing behind KULIN ROCK two starts back, but he looks set to play out as the main speed this time as he cuts back in distance.