ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, ZERO ZEE FIRST RACE

ZERO ZEE chased an honest pace and held on well to finish a clear second at this level and distance in her first try with winners. Given the lack of pure speed in the field she could be gone if she breaks sharply from her inside post with Lopez retaining the mount. SPECIALCNSYDRATION probably wants more distance but she picked things up in her latest work, can fire fresh, and could make an impact if she can get into the mix early. FAITHFUL SUE is another one that would look better going a bit longer but she showed she can rally after getting off to a poor start in her latest and could be heard from late.

SECOND RACE

SHACKLEFORDS STORM looked good beating easer in his front-running win Sept. 21 and is capable of stalking like he did when he just missed after leaving from the rail going this distance on Aug. 31. He will also be making his first start for a trainer who has done a good job with his small stable. MASTER RORY has been first or second in his last five starts and almost took them all the way at this level in his first start over this surface Oct. 6. He will have to deal with other speed, though, and if they get carried away up front if could set up for JERSEY STREET who should be rolling late.

THIRD RACE

GRACE’S DRAMA will be going for her fourth straight win and will be tough to handle if the race gets washed off the turf. It is a wide-open race if it stays on the lawn. SKRADIN night not have cared for the yielding course at Monmouth Sept. 22 but her race over firm turf in a $20K claimer at Parx two back in puts her right there. The shape of the race should also work for her. STAY SAFE KITTEN looks like a serious player off of her runner-up finish for $10K two back. She also ran okay over a sloppy track in her latest. ORTIGA is a bit questionable going this far but she gets weight off with Maragh picking up the mount and she could get a nice trip sitting just off suspect speed. She will also be making her first start for Vitali who is having a strong meet and has solid numbers with claimed horses.

FOURTH RACE

ROYALLY COOL finished first in her debut at Timonium but had her number taken down for causing interference when she veered in soon after the start. It was a strong performance, though, and the race has produced a next-out winner. Adding to her appeal are the strong numbers Kobiaskie has with second-time starters, plus, among her sibs are a 10-time winner, 21-time winner, and a 2-time Grade 3 winner. SHALL RETURN was favored when she finished second in her debut in a $16K maiden claimer on turf here and considering all three of her sibs are winners on dirt she should be fine with the surface switch. VALERIE FIRST is the most experienced horse in the field and she has improved in her last two starts.

FIFTH RACE

CAPE DESIDERATO has been off since he finished second going this distance on April 19, but he ran well in his debut and two of the last three Gracida brought back from a break of 180 days or more won, plus, the other one finished third. TOSS is an obvious contender after running a big race when he tried turf for the first time in a $16K claimer. SHANGHAI STORM has speed and could take them a long way if he breaks alertly from his inside post. OFF THE MARK drops to a new low and considering his only sibling is a 3-time winner on turf he could improve running on grass the first time.

SIXTH RACE

Toss his debut and DEPUTY CZAR has yet to run a bad race and that was a big effort in his first try with winners at this level in his latest. He has the right running style for a race that should unfold at a moderate tempo and being lightly raced he could have plenty of upside. THE BEST CANDY is on a roll with three straight wins, is perfect on this surface, and his Beyer Speed Figures are on the rise so he may not have reached his peak. BE GONE DADDY was running on dirt for the first time when he rallied to finish second in THE BEST CANDY’s win sprinting on Oct. 11, and being the first foal out of a multiple route stakes winner he could thrive going a middle distance the first time.

SEVENTH RACE

HOLLYWOOD OVERDOGS is out of a mare who won five times on turf and his only sibling is a turf winner. Expecting him to improve in his second start with the surface switch and it is encouraging to see Lopez pick up the mount. COME ON VENEZUELA received betting support in both of his races but he got bumped around at the start in his sprint debut and came up empty when he stretched out for his second start. His sibs have combined to win 22 sprints and zero routs so this is probably want he wants to do. If he draws into the race THAT SCOUNDREL could be dangerous with the drop in price and blinkers going on. WATCH YOUR STEP is out of a mare who won seven races on turf and one of his sibs is a turf winner.

EIGHTH RACE

GREEN MANSIONS ran well both times he tried turf, can fire fresh, and may have been trying to tell us something when he worked a bullet half-mile out of the gate in :46.80 seconds Oct. 14. KANTHAROS’ IMAGE just missed coming off a layoff in a similar race two back and had a wide-trip and may have bounced a bit in his second start back. He moves inside and could be sitting on a big effort in the third star of his current form cycle. Not sure where WEST OF EDEN’S huge race in his last start came from, but if he can repeat it he could be gone. There is other potential speed drawn inside of him, though. AMELIA’S WILD RIDE is capable of winning this and has worked well since being haltered by a sharp trainer who the past five years has a 21% strike rate and $1.93 ROI with claimed horses running back the first time.

NINTH RACE

IS THAT MAGIC, a beaten favorite in her last two, improved in her second start back and could take another step forward with the blinkers going on for the first time. She also got hung out wide going around the first turn in her first route attempt in her latest and shouldn’t mind the cutback in distance. DIVINE DIVA took them a long way in the same race the top pick exits and that makes two solid starts since she moved to trainer Antonio Machado’s barn. LITTLE DIRTY GIRL won’t mind the added distance after an improved effort in her latest. 39-time maiden SALSA QUEEN finished third in her only start here Oct. 13 and a similar effort puts her in the mix.