ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, WE GOT OLD YOU GOT SOLD FIRST RACE

SAY IT SOFTLY, yet to win in 10 starts, holds what appears to be a form and class advantage and may be ready to pick up an overdue diploma. A longtime straight maiden runner that is coming off a runner-up finish for maiden $50,000, she is dropped to maiden $30,000 and possesses the speed to be on or near the pace. IGOTTAWHITEFACE, third on debut at Ellis Park this summer after starting slowly, is potentially disadvantaged by not having raced for over three months, but did work a near-bullet in breezing five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 Oct 12 at Churchill in the leadup to her return. DEV MO has twice finished in the rear half of the pack in as many starts, but exits a fast race earlier in the meet in which the winner ran six furlongs in 1:10 and change. Sixth that day, she is lightly raced and eligible to improve.

SECOND RACE

CASSIDY AVE performed well over this surface Oct. 11, finishing second of 12 against what seemed a better field than this one. That race represented her a step up from a fourth in her prior start at Churchill Sept. 20. MOLLY’S GAME was slow to get into stride in that same Oct. 11 race, rallying belatedly to grab fourth. Prior starts had been more encouraging - such as when second at Churchill Sept. 10, a race in which she ran in front of CASSIDY AVE. MOLLY’S GAME rates behind her due to having limited early speed. LINDA LISTEN is a tricky filly to evaluate, coming by way of Belterra, where she was twice third. Adding blinkers and coming out of sprints, she may have the speed to lead. Being by Yes It’s True, her pedigree is geared more toward speed - so the mile trip is in question.

THIRD RACE

After winning a claimer going approximately this same distance earlier in the meet, WE GOT OLD YOU GOT SOLD lands ina favorable spot. He appears on the upswing for trainer Mike Maker, as reflected by him scoring by 7 3/4 lengths for $40,000 last out. Fits on the rise to $50,000. SIMSBURY is a speedy three-time winner from six starts, a record that includes a couple of allowance victories. His success has come on synthetic, not on dirt, today’s surface. He ran fifth and fourth in a pair of dirt races last year, though at a time when he was kicking off his career and might have needed to gain some experience. ARTICULATOR stands to benefit if rain dampens the main track, having compiled a three-for-four record on wet maintracks over his nine-race career. A late-running sprinter, he exits some difficult first-level allowances and should appreciate the drop in for a tag. Enthusiasm tempered by being away since June.

FOURTH RACE

LADY WORTHINGTON - a first timer by the late, great Scat Daddy - is from a family of turf runners, and has Wesley Ward and Stonestreet in her corner. Ward and Stonestreet teamed with success with elite grass sprinter Lady Aurelia a year or two back. QUIET COMPANY and GINNY B are the ones with starts that most excite. The latter brings speed to the table, though she has struggled to sustain it in her three starts, while the former gets back to her best surface on turf after a bit of a flat dirt effort. Besides the top choice, several other first timers have hinted of talent, with AND SHE’S GONE being the best bred of the bunch. She is a half to millionaire sprinter Clearly Now, a multiple graded winner, and also Bendable, who took the Desert Stormer at Santa Anita last year.

FIFTH RACE

The numbers add up to make MATH WIZARD a price play in the fifth. A 20-1 outsider on the morning line, he offers value on a class drop from the straight maiden ranks for his second start. He was within a couple lengths off the pace for a half mile in his debut at Churchill before fading to 10th.

Quick-working CITY SIEGE has yet to run to his fast works in two starts the afternoons, finishing in the rear half of the pack against maiden special weight rivals. He already owns the top overall Beyer, a 57, plus now he gets class relief to face maiden $30,000 stock. MISTER HARVEY merits respect based on his speed and starting for a winning trainer in Brad Cox. He has underachieved relative to his odds in all three starts, though in his first two races he faced some stakes-quality colts within the straight maiden ranks.

SIXTH RACE

This $20,000, nonwinners-of-two claimer is a head scratcher...giving the edge to 5-1 chance CLASS WON. He has been unable to deliver the late knockout blow in his races against winners, but now runs for his cheapest tag and is back on a Keeneland track in which he ran one of his better races when second in the spring. SMOKE MONSTER, dropped in for a tag for the first time, is among the most attractive classwise. To date he has acted like a want-the-lead type and several others seem to also have that style. TWIN FARMS came undone after speeding off to a 21 and change opening quarter in a seven-furlong claiming race for $50,000, weakening to fifth. He gets blinkers removed, along with a class drop and cutback in distance - changes that should make him far more competitive.

SEVENTH RACE

BIRD’S EYE VIEW looks poised to reverse a trend of three consecutive off-the-board finishes in this allowance. He has been competing in better-quality optional claimers in New York and at Kentucky Downs, and now returns to Keeneland, where he crossed the wire first in an allowance in the spring, only to be disqualified for interference. Last-race 89 Beyer is tops in the field from that perspective. Deep-closing VIGILANTE, claimed for $62,500 in June at Churchill, initially ran ninth for his new connections at Saratoga before responding with a somewhat improved fourth in Indiana. Perhaps now ready for his best in the third start of his form cycle. TUSK changed style in going to the lead in his latest when racing for $50,000 claiming, and nearly lasted, holding second, though in merely a four-horse field. He is likely to revert to off-the-pace tactics here, conceding the lead to CEEVEE. The latter is yet another to consider, along with second-time U.S. starter ARGENTIC, a solid handicap/stake runner in France last year.

EIGHTH RACE

Scaled back in class after a fifth in the Grade 2 Prioress, CATHEDRAL READER fell just short of My Lady Curlin in a first-level allowance at Churchill last month. ‘Curlin then came back to be a fine second in a second-level allowance here at Keeneland last week. Excluding her stakes loss, CATHEDRAL READER has been on the board in all of her other starts. LANEY is regularly a factor but has gone a while without winning. She has been mired in the entry-level allowance ranks since running third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles in May 2017 - a stretch of 10 races. HAYNESFEST is a speedy, honest sort - and though she has largely raced in claimers, bear in mind nd that she won an optional claimer that was essentially a first-level allowance like this one at Fair Grounds in March.

NINTH RACE

SPEEDY SOLUTION gets class relief in this allowance after a sixth in the Grade 2 Jessamine Oct. 10 - a race in which she was beaten just 1 3/4 lengths for the place. The 1-2-3 finishers are all expected back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. LIGHTS CAMERA ACTION also exits the Jessamine, though she lost by a larger margin, finishing ninth, beaten 10 lengths. She is seasoned and battle tested, suggesting she is held in high regard by her trainer, Ken McPeek. BOXWOOD, third in her debut at Indiana Grand in a route, graduated from the maiden ranks in her second start at Kentucky Downs going 6 1/2 furlongs. She defeated a nice maiden cast and in good time, though now she faces the challenges of stretching out and facing winners.

TENTH RACE

Maidens go to post in the nightcap, a race that seemed to draw at least several promising first timers. Some of those, ULELE and ALIZEE, have both drawn praise from Keeneland clockers. Ultimately went with ULELE, who might offer the better price, not having as many bullets leaping out of the past performances. She has winning connections in her corner and is a nicely bred daughter of Candy Ride out of a stakes-winning dam. ALIZEE, by Mark Valeski, easily handled her workmates in Oct. 13 and Oct. 21 workouts leading up to her unveiling. NAUGHTY JOKER is the one most liked of those that have run. She was second in her debut at Kentucky Downs in a grass sprint, though with a so-so 47 Beyer. Her dirt workouts suggest she should handle the dirt, having long trained swiftly over this track.