ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, EXTREME HEAT FIRST RACE

SCREENSHOT has been begging for two turns, the distance-bred maiden filly finally gets two turns in her fourth start. She finished willingly all three sprints, like a filly that will love the trip. Tab for a minor upset on the stretch-out. STRADELLA ROAD, in the money three of five sprints, also might like this mile trip. She will be positioned in front of the top choice and will get first run. MAGICAL GRAY ran super last out when she returned to grass. She sped to the lead, set a blazing pace, and only got collared on the wire. Super try by the quickest in this field. Come catch her. SHE BE STRIKING might be ranked too low by this handicapper. She finished in front of the two pair last out. She is yet another than might like this two-turn trip. The race is a split of race 3.

SECOND RACE

The fastest horse in the field is making his first start in seven months. QUICK FINISH appears to have trained well for his comeback, his speed figures top the field, he is drawn outside and he would make short work of these if he runs his “A” race first start back. I AM THE DANGER has something the top choice lacks. That is, recent form. Daylight maiden-40 last out, he benefitted from a tepid pace scenario in that win, but he might tuck into a comfortable trip positioned just off the speed. CAYATE wired Cal-bred maidens eight days ago on the front end; he has run well rallying off the pace in the past. BUCK DUANE and OLD INDIAN TRICK add speed.

THIRD RACE

This turf mile for maiden fillies and mares is a split of race 1; DEARBORN stretches back out following a third-by-a-neck effort in the same downhill sprint that was contested by half the field from race 1. DEARBORN adds blinkers, she could make an easy lead, and is the one to beat. SUTRO finished in front of the top choice when they met in summer at Del Mar. This is the first start in more than two months for SUTRO, who is the best finisher in the field. ARCTIC ROLL makes her U.S. debut against what appears to be a modest field of maidens. She finished third against winners her most recent start in England.

FOURTH RACE

DISCATSONTHESQUARE finished third in backto-back races at this level, and trained fast since she was claimed last out by a high-percent f.o.c. trainer. She runs best when she takes back and rallies late rather than dueling on the lead like she did her last start. SPECTACULAR MOVE acted goofy at the gate last time, then misfired as the favorite in an age-restricted claiming sprint. She also was claimed, her win two starts back puts her in the photo with the top choice. BELLE MONTE is sharp, has speed, a good post, and will set or press the pace from the outside.

FIFTH RACE

Deep closers have not won their fair share this meet a mile on dirt; that is the challenge facing PALLADIUM. But the 2yo stretch-runner is proven around two turns; he finished third by less than a length last out in a stakes race at Emerald Downs. He drops in class and gets the call to wear them down. LEAD STAR took advantage of a slow pace and weak rivals to win a maiden-50 last out which makes him eligible for this $50k claiming starter. He runs virtually the same race every start, and that might be good enough. BABY FRANKIE tries a host of changes that could lead to improvement. First time long on dirt, first start since he was gelded, first time ridden by Flavien Prat.

SIXTH RACE

EXTREME HEAT enters this $25k claiming N2L turf mile as most probable winner on the card. His two-turn races in spring and summer are faster than most in the field, he drops one level and makes his first start since a private sale and transfer to owner-trainer Ed Freeman. Seems like a standout. GRAY ADMIRAL returned to form in the first race of the autumn meet, “winning” a similar restricted turf mile by a length and one-quarter. He was best, but was disqualified for interference. Big look if he runs two alike. JACK AND I ran well last out at a higher level and longer distance. He benefits by this shorter distance and class drop.