Toinette tuning up in Autumn Miss

ARCADIA, Calif. – As if handicapping 14 horses at a mile on turf is not tough enough, added uncertainties turn the Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita into a genuine head-scratcher.

For example, the favorite might need a prep race in her first start back from a layoff, while the likely second choice routinely falls short at low odds. A sprint stakes winner from New York faces a different scenario at two turns, and the likely pacesetter is unproven on grass or in routes.

Yes, the challenges facing Toinette, Ms Bad Behavior, Tesora, and Spring Lily are real. All are qualified to win the $100,000 race for 3-year-old fillies.

Toinette, the likely favorite, emerged as a division leader in May at Churchill Downs, where her victory in the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes came over four subsequent graded winners, including Rushing Fall. But in her next start, Toinette completely misfired and finished ninth in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

“She was injured in the race; it was minor,” trainer Neil Drysdale said.

He believes the setback, which he declined to identify, compromised her performance. Toinette resumed workouts soon after, then did not work from Aug. 13 to Sept. 28. Throughout October, she has not skipped a beat.

If she fires Saturday, Toinette could win the Autumn Miss despite the layoff. Drysdale suggested that her next start will be better than Saturday’s. “I expect her to run well,” he said before adding a prerace alibi. “She might need a race. She hasn’t run in a long time.”

Ms Bad Behavior, a beaten favorite in two of her last three, is the best of three Richard Baltastrained fillies in the race and also drew better than stablemates Flammetta and Hey Negrita, who are in posts 13 and 14.

“You can’t win from out there,” Baltas said.

You can win from post 4, where Ms Bad Behavior starts. The runner-up as the favorite last out in a sprint and third as the favorite three back in a Grade 2 at Del Mar, Ms Bad Behavior should get a forwardly placed trip just off the speed.

Tesora rallied from behind to win a turf sprint at Belmont, though she benefited from fast fractions (21.98 and 45.55 seconds). Her challenges Saturday are a slower pace and two turns.

Spring Lily, the likely pacesetter, was foiled in three previous routes. Trainer John Shirreffs needs no reminding.

“I know, but then when you watch her train, you say, ‘Man, she’s got to go two turns,’” he said.

The others entered are Pulpit Rider, So Hi Society, Street with no name, KP Pergoliscious, West Palm Beach, Streak of Luck, Movie Moment, and Rayya.

BARBARA D. LIVINGSTON Toinette, shown winning the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill Downs in May, most recently was ninth in the Belmont Oaks.