Fayette Stakes pace could suit Leofric

With a week to go until the Breeders’ Cup, it’s no surprise that Saturday’s stakes schedule is light. Keeneland offers the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette, while Belmont has the Grade 3, $200,000 Bold Ruler Handicap, supported by the English Channel and Awad stakes, worth $100,000 each. Santa Anita’s feature is the Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss.

Fayette Stakes

Despite a field of only seven – it seems like every other mobile male router pre-entered the Breeders’ Cup Classic – this is still an interesting race.

Hofburg and Prime Attraction are the “name” horses, and I’ve been a strong supporter of Hofburg. He was my Weekend Warrior play in the Florida Derby, despite coming off just a maiden victory, because in that maiden win he overcame the sort of wide trip that rarely succeeds in 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream. Hofburg ran well finishing second, and then, after a sneaky-good seventh in the Kentucky Derby, I went with Hofburg in the Belmont Stakes, “astutely” getting off my Derby and Preakness pick Justify.

That didn’t work out, though Hofburg ran well again. He finished a creditable third, and followed with a romp in the Curlin Stakes, overcoming a speed-biased track. However, Hofburg missed the Travers after spiking a fever, and finished a distant fourth most recently in the Pennsylvania Derby.

In fairness, Hofburg’s closing style was compromised by a slow Pennsylvania Derby pace, but the fact is, he did little running. And now, while I remain a fan and still consider him a highly talented prospect, I’ve reached the point where I want to see Hofburg actually win in a meaningful spot. I’ll let him beat me Saturday.

As for Prime Attraction, his recent company lines jump right off the paper. He was up against Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Accelerate in four of his last five starts, as well as West Coast, last year’s champion 3-year-old male, and Catapult and Sharp Samurai, two entrants in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The last time Prime Attraction ran in a reasonable spot such as this was last November, and he galloped in the Native Diver. But that’s my concern. While Prime Attraction figures to greatly appreciate the massive class relief he gets Saturday, it has been a long time since he last won.

Leofric is my play off what I thought was a courageous third last time in the Woodward. Granted, the overall quality of this year’s Woodward was not up to traditional standards, and the final time was not strong for a Grade 1 event. That said, Leofric was hardsent out of post 11 in an attempt to save some ground on the first turn, and while he did get to the rail on the first turn, he also wound up in a race-long speed duel with Rally Cry. Leofric won his battle with Rally Cry (who finished fourth), but lost the Woodward war to Yoshida and Gunnevera, who charged from way back to finish one-two, and are two others with designs on the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Leofric won two straight before the Woodward, including a win in the West Virginia Governor’s Cup that makes him competitive here, and should have a more relaxed time pace-wise Saturday. And that might be all he needs.

Autumn Miss Stakes

Toinette, the only horse to have beaten Rushing Fall, and the consistent Ms Bad Behavior are logical win threats in this big field. But I prefer Tesora.

Tesora is facing a tougher group than the one she beat last time in the Christiecat. But she won going away in the Christiecat with a nice late kick and in the manner of a filly who is only just beginning to realize her potential. Tesora can certainly take another step forward, and should love the added distance she gets Saturday.

Bold Ruler Handicap

I dislike using six-horse races such as this one, but given the forecast for heavy rain Saturday in New York, I want to completely avoid Belmont’s two supporting stakes, which are scheduled for turf.

Coal Front and Delta Prince are the most talented horses, but I’m leery of Coal Front off a 13-month absence on what will likely be a wet, sealed track. And while Delta Prince should go turf to dirt being a half to threetime champion Royal Delta, slop might be another matter.

I’ll take True Timber, who showed promise early in his career and appears ready to deliver on it. True Timber steps up off two straight wins, but one of those was over subsequent Kelso winner Patternrecognition.