Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Early thoughts following Breeders’ Cup pre-entries
Some handicapping thoughts and statistics after a night spent analyzing the past performances of horses pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup:
Roy H over Imperial Hint in Sprint
As fast and classy as he is, Imperial Hint could be vulnerable on the Churchill Downs main track. He has twice gone unplaced in as many trips beneath the twin spires, running 12th in the Pat Day Mile on a fast track in 2016 and then sixth this year in the Churchill Downs Stakes at seven furlongs on a sloppy surface.
Neither race was an ideal fit, with both being beyond his preferred trip of six furlongs and one coming over an off track. Still, it should give bettors pause when they consider backing him as the possible favorite.
Roy H is my preference in the Sprint. He is 2 for 4 this year after beating Imperial Hint in last year’s Sprint at Del Mar, and he looked like his old self in winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Oct. 6.
Even his losses this year were creditable. Roy H was third behind Mind Your Biscuits and X Y Jet in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai after breaking uncharacteristically slowly, and he ran like a short horse when second to the now-sidelined Ransom the Moon in the Bing Crosby this summer at Del Mar after being away four months.
Roy H has never raced at Churchill, having competed mostly in California, but he performed at a high level in Dubai and when he shipped to Belmont Park last year to win the True North. Those races do not prove he can handle Churchill but at least indicate he can take his show on the road.
Possible singles in multirace exotics
Three horses made my early shortlist as possible singles in multirace wagers. In addition to Roy H, they are Catalina Cruiser in the Dirt Mile and Marley’s Freedom in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Marley’s Freedom has all the necessary qualifications: stellar form and speed figures, established class, and a Hall of Fame trainer in Bob Baffert, who should have her fresh and primed after resting her for two months following her win in the Ballerina.
Selcourt did beat her in the Grade 2 Santa Monica at Santa Anita on March 20, but much has changed for the pair since that meeting. Marley’s Freedom has rattled off four straight victories, three of them graded, while Selcourt has remained idle and will attempt to win the Filly and Mare Sprint off a layoff of more than seven months.
I do not want to touch Selcourt off such an extended hiatus, nor am I keen to play the 3-year-old Dream Tree, who is taking on elders for the first time. That has me leaning toward using Marley’s Freedom over a number of outsiders, hoping for prices beneath Marley’s Freedom to fatten returns in the vertical exotics.
Evaluating post positions
Although post position is unlikely to have much bearing on a seven-furlong race such as the Filly and Mare Sprint or in the Dirt Mile, the draw could come into play in other events. So, in poring over the PPs, I was reluctant to settle on concrete choices for the two-turn juvenile races on Breeders’ Cup Friday, knowing that a wide draw could cost a horse a few lengths.
Another race to watch for post position: the Filly and Mare Turf. At 1 3/8 miles at Churchill this year, it starts early on the backstretch, and the first of three turns arrives in merely 485 feet, according to the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Horsemen’s Information Guide. That is equivalent to the short run to the first turn seen in 1 1/16-mile twoturn dirt races at Churchill.
Since it’s an infrequently run distance, I checked back as far as I could for data to examine the effect of post position on 1 3/8 miles in turf races there. Daily Racing Form’s post-position database, which dates to 1991, shows not a single winner over that trip at Churchill who started from post 10 or outward, though the sample size was small. Posts 11-14 were a collective 0 for 17, and horses from posts 9-10 went 3 for 66.
Although Americans Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook are legitimate players in the Filly and Mare Turf, I am inclined to support a European, given the distance. Of those, Eziyra is intriguing as a live longshot. A stayer who has run mostly at 1 1/2 miles for the past two years, she seems to have been specifically pointed for this race, with trainer Dermot Weld bypassing the major season-ending races in Europe over the past month. She is 15-1 on the early line established by DRF’s Mike Watchmaker.